Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Weather It Is (T-Storms)

Good Afternoon:

Tonight will see the arrival of a cool front, and temperatures will drop all the way into Friday.

Moisture will flow in behind the front, and an upper level storm (as indicated by a vorticity maximum at 500 mb) will create divergence aloft and the chance of thunderstorms.

Our highest resolution model suggests that the greatest chance for thunderstorms will be over the northern part of the country, but the upper level storm is positioned such that storms could occur in areas besides the north.

Besides the storms, light rain is possible, and the approach of another upper level storm on Thursday will bring another chance of showers.

Speaking of spring showers, I have been receiving a number of complaints about the light rain that seemed to occur in only certain locations, and only for certain people.  I can assure you that there was no prior planning involved, but that the light rain is simply a result of moisture at upper levels.  Had moisture been distributed in the lower atmosphere as well, the rain would have been more generously spread around.

While it will warm up nicely for several days next week, the week's end may see a return to cooler (but normal) temperatures and rainier weather (again).  This is shown in the GEFS forecasts and the ECMWF medium range forecasts for next week and the following.

Barry Lynn


Sunday, February 26, 2017

Weather It Is (A Sharav)

Good Evening:

A Sharav is on the way.

Strong upper level forcing combined with plenty of moisture will bring us a period of unusual warmth and dust followed by convective showers as the month turns over into March (on Tuesday night).

A glance at the GEFS (mean) weather maps clearly shows the storm skirting the southern Mediterranean and then curving up the sea-coast before passing by to our NW.

Our dust forecast shows the dust concentrations increasing over the next few days, while the GEFS shows chilly air will follow the passage of the Sharav and its associated cold front.

The chill will last into the middle of the following week.

Beyond the middle of next week, the forecast shows a wide range of possible outcomes, including more rain and cold.

The European medium range forecast updates on Monday of each week, so we'll see if a wet March is still on tap for the coming month.

Shavua Tov,

Barry Lynn

Friday, February 24, 2017

Weather It Is (It's Over -- Or Not?)

Good Afternoon:

The March Blizzard of 1888 (described below) was preceded by a period of mild weather with heavy rains.  Folks along the eastern seaboard were probably getting ready for spring, rather winter.

It was one of the worse recorded blizzards.  In fact, the great grandchildren of those who experienced it and lived through it still remember  it!

Of course, it affected the eastern United States (and not us), but it is "warning" that the nice weather of today may just be gone tomorrow.

Actually, today's weather is really nice and tomorrow's will be even nicer (and milder) still.  In fact, it should stay warm until about next Wednesday.

At that time, there will likely be local rain (with some tropical showers possible).  It should then turn a lot cooler, but the end of next week will again remind folks of spring.

Lest one jump too far into Spring, the ECMWF medium range forecast suggests that the second and third week of March will be colder and wetter than normal.

http://forest.jrc.ec.europa.eu/effis/applications/long-term-forecast/monthly-forecast/

Considering that this winter already has below normal temperatures, this will be more of the same of what has turned out to be a chilly, but not particularly sn-wy winter.

I remember that our current string of more sn-wy weather started in 2011 with a early March storm that brought about 10 cm to Gush Etzion (and a couple of centimeters to Jerusalem).  Regardless of what turns out, rain would be a blessing for all concerned.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

The Great Blizzard of 1888 or Great Blizzard of '88 (March 11 – March 14, 1888) was one of the most severe recorded blizzards in the history of the United States of America. The storm, referred to as the Great White Hurricane, paralyzed the East Coast from the Chesapeake Bay to Maine,[1][2] as well as the Atlantic provinces of Canada.[3] Snowfalls of 20–60 inches (51–152 cm) fell in parts of New JerseyNew YorkMassachusettsRhode Island, and Connecticut, and sustained winds of more than 45 miles per hour (72 km/h) produced snowdrifts in excess of 50 feet (15 m). Railroads were shut down and people were confined to their houses for up to a week.[3] Railway and telegraph lines were disabled, and this provided the impetus to move these pieces of infrastructure underground. Emergency services were also affected.

For more:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Blizzard_of_1888

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

Weather It Is (The End...)

Good Evening:

A dog will eat anything off the floor -- just because it can.

A cat will climb any tree -- just because it can.

A meteorologist will forecast snow -- any chance he can.

Well, after thoughtful and prolonged consideration, I can tell you that you won't hear me say that word again -- at least until next year.

Why? Because Spring is in the processing of springing. Temperatures will moderate over the next week as the winter cold retreats to the north and a bit of desert heat takes it place.

True, by mid next week a cool breeze will return, and possibly some rain, but we don't see any real return to winter cold.

On topic: we're thinking of adopting some new rules for next year, which we'll implement at the appropriate time, God willing.  You might have noticed that our long range forecasts were suggestive of a wintry pattern, but while it often turned cold on schedule, it was never too cold (or too cold and snowy) at any particular time. Here in Efrat we had about 2 cm of snow one Shabbat morning, and that was it!

This winter was a year of almost, and it must be very hard to have to suffer through so many almost.  For this reason, next year we plan to speak of a turn towards colder weather, but leave out any discussion of a possible "real" winter storm until 3 days before it happens.  At this time, we should have access to our higher resolution forecasts, which will give us a better idea of whether winter weather is really possible -- or not.

It is interesting that so many different groups claim they want to liberate the "Land."  Why is that? It's obvious that Jerusalem is not holy to them, as they pray in a completely different direction than towards Jerusalem.  The real reason they want to liberate the land is because they really prefer the weather we have here to the weather they have there. I mean, who would want to live Iran where the weather is quite frankly much to hot (or the air is heavily polluted).  In contrast we have relatively mild winters, gentle rains, and not too hot desert heat.

From this we know that the Palestinians really are uninterested in peaceful relations.  Anyone who has driven through Judea and Samaria (i.e., the "West Bank") knows that it is prime real estate with the best weather (not too hot and just dry enough) in the country. If the Palestinian leadership was sincere about making peace they would jump to live in weather paradise.

Enjoy the spring!

Barry Lynn

Sunday, February 19, 2017

Weather It Is (Not Much Going On)

Good Afternoon:

It will remain on the cool side through the end of the week.

Moreover, there will be a reinforcing shot of cool air towards the end of the week, but at the moment it should pass by with at most local rain.

At the moment, it looks like next week will bring a moderate warm up.

The models have been hinting at the end of the month winter storm, but this is just a hint and at the moment not a very serious one.

Have a good evening,

Barry Lynn

Friday, February 17, 2017

Weather It Is (The Aftermath (And Dynamic Cooling))

Good Afternoon:

There was a lot of excitement the last week, and we certainly should be excited about almost 5 consecutive days of rain, in which we received more than 75 mm of rain (in Gush Etzion).

Some were relieved that the conditions were not strong enough for a significant snowstorm, while others, though were disappointed.

In a nutshell, the forecast models (especially our high resolution forecast) did very well in predicting that at most there would be some wet snow, and/or a very light accumulation in the highest elevations.  Moreover, as predicted, there were temperatures below freezing last night, and even ice (again) on our swimming pool.

The next week or so looks to be milder, and spring may have sprung by the start of the following week (after some tropical showers).  Yet, there is a 10% chance that it will turn cold and rainy at the end of the month.

So, why the hype? What did we all get so excited for?  There is something called "Dynamic Cooling," which can happen when there is very strong convective storms:

https://forecasterjack.com/glossary/glossary-of-cold-season-terms/dynamic-cooling/

Dynamic cooling is the cooling of the lower atmosphere through two processes: i) the mixing of relatively warmer air at the surface with comparatively (unstable) cold air aloft, and ii) the melting of snow/ice as it descends (which requires energy), lowering the temperature enough such that further falling snow/ice can actually reach the surface.

It is important to note here that air that descends in a stable atmosphere (where the lapse rate is adiabatic) does not cool the lower atmosphere. The reason is that air warms as it descends because of an increase in pressure. The result is that air parcels oscillate up and down, but never too far in either direction. Moreover, if air were to relatively cool as it descended, there would be quite a wind coming from above (and it doesn't --  so you intuitively know this to be correct).

Another way the atmosphere can cool is when liquid drops evaporate on the way down. It cools to the wet bulb temperatures (see: https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-physical-significance-of-wet-bulb-temperature).  This often happens in the northeastern United States when a storm advances northward up  the coast, and high pressure from the north blows cold, dry air into the storm.  The evaporation of droplets as they fall into this relatively dry air will occur until the wet bulb temperature is reached (or saturation), and the temperature will be colder than before (and perhaps even below freezing).

I don't think we have the latter situation to often -- and cold air often arrives from over the sea so it is near saturation anyway. Instead,  we must rely on dynamic cooling and the advection (arrival of cold air from the north), and it was this type of process that led meteorologists to be hopeful for an accumulating snow on Thursday.

However, our highest resolution forecast (which has a resolution high enough to predict dynamic cooling in strong storms) indicated only a mixture of wet snow/ice that would accumulate only small amounts at best, and only in the highest areas of the central mountains.

Looking at the big picture (especially when the later global model forecasts were a bit colder than previous) did lend some excitement to our winter (and even I was hopeful), but the fine scale details indicated:  no -- there wouldn't be a big snow.

Well, we're going to have to wait until the end of the month, or possibly next winter.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn


Thursday, February 16, 2017

Weather It Is (Winter Weather Advisory (3))

Good Late Morning:

This early morning there was some mixed rain and snow in Efrat, but the snow seemed to melt as it passed my kneecaps.  As is typical in winter here, it is often just a tad warm for snow.  Still, we've had close to 100 mm of rain so far this week, which is a blessing.  Snow was reported on the Golan, where it accumulated at least several centimeters.

The coldest temperatures at 500 mb will occur within the next few hours as the axis of the trough moves through.

The passage of the upper trough should bring one last burst of precipitation.

Afterwards, temperatures in the middle and lower atmosphere will fall a couple of degrees.
While this might bring a bit of snow, it looks like the atmosphere will be drying out after the next burst of precipitation.  If there are any snow showers with the passage of the coldest air at 700 mb, it will be a surprise.

Our highest resolution forecast (1.0 km) shows a light accumulation of snow in the area of Hebron, and a very light snow accumulation in the area of Efrat and the western approaches to Jerusalem.

More importantly, some standing water may freeze on road surfaces this evening and night.  Moreover, tomorrow morning should have temperatures in the higher elevations near freezing, so slippery conditions may persist after dawn.

The weather in the next two weeks looks uneventful, so this may be our last chance to see any snowflakes this winter.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, February 15, 2017

Weather It Is (Winter Advisory Update (2))

Good Evening:

The latest global data (0600 UTC) has trended colder, and our high resolution forecast now shows several centimeter of accumulation in the area of Hebron and Kiryat Area.

A fierce storm will arrive tonight with heavy rain that will spread from north to south.

The heaviest rain amounts will be in the central coastal and central mountain areas, where floods are possible.

Gale force winds are expected in the area of the central mountains.

Snow is expected to accumulate in the Hebron area tonight and tomorrow, while snow and ice will make for dangerous traveling conditions late tonight and tomorrow in the rest of Gush Etzion, possibly spreading to the area of Jerusalem later in the day as temperatures cool.

Because temperatures are forecast to be just above freezing, precipitating snow and ice (in thunderstorms) will probably cover the ground and roads, but then melt, which is why we're not expecting any snow to accumulate.

Still, the intensity of the precipitation will likely lead to travel problems.

The precipitation should be lighter in the north, but heavy precipitation may fall south into the area of the Arava.

We should have another update in the evening.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Winter Weather Advisory)

Good Morning:

After a lot of talk, and even more than that, it comes down to a degree or two -- but for snow lovers a degree or two too warm.

Temperatures at 850 mb will fall until evening, but middle and upper level temperatures will warm.

Then, when the cold air and heavy precipitation arrives towards Thursday morning with an extremely cold upper level trough, temperatures will be steady or rise a bit in the middle and lower levels.

This is response to the arrival of a really moist layer (from the sea).  It has also been pointed out that the height of the 500 mb level is higher than usual in storms that bring snow.  This means that cold air descending in convective storms has more time to diabatically warm (with increasing pressure).  Hence, any snow/ice would just become wet snow or rain tomorrow morning as the cold air moves in.

The lower levels will start to cool down in the afternoon, but the upper trough will be moving through, reducing the air parcel ascent required for precipitation formation.

Yet, there is a middle atmospheric disturbance (at 700 mb) shown to arrive in the evening with the coldest air at lower levels, and our high resolution model shows some precipitation at this time.

For this reason, we'll issue a "Winter Weather Advisory" for the possibility of some snow/ice in the afternoon and evening on Thursday.

Very cold nighttime temperatures could lead to slippery conditions on Friday morning.

There are some lower level temperature differences between the different global models, but it is hard to see how the initial burst of very heavy precipitation tomorrow morning will be anything but rain.

If you like snow, then hope that your trusted weatherman will be wrong.

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Weather It Is (Winter Weather Warning/Winter Storm Watch (5))

Good Afternoon:

There was a bit of excitement in the air this morning.

The reason?  The global forecast models are suggesting that it will be wetter and colder on Wednesday and Thursday than previously forecast.

The problem, it may not be cold enough to accumulate snow.

The cold air will arrive tonight in the lower and middle atmosphere (850/700 mb levels).  Our highest resolution model indicates that this will produce a very light snowfall in the area of Gush Etzion (and northern mountains), with some wet snow/rain possible in Jerusalem.

By mid-morning and afternoon, temperatures aloft will warm a bit, so any precipitation would just fall as rain.

Thursday, a very cold upper trough (500 mb) is expected to arrive in the morning and produce a period of much heavier precipitation than we've seen up to now into the evening hours.

The high resolution model indicates that snow is more likely during this period, but no accumulation is expected in Jerusalem, but perhaps on cars, while a light accumulation is expected in Gush Etzion (heavier amounts in the Golan).

The reason: surface temperatures are currently forecast to be too warm for a major accumulation.

Since one degree either way could make a big difference, we'll have to report back tomorrow with the latest high resolution forecast data.

Barry Lynn


Weather It Is (Quick Update)

The latest weather forecast indicates a greater likelihood of snow (accumulating) Wednesday and Thursday in the mountains of Jerusalem.

This means that the Winter Storm Watch will likely be changed to a Winter Storm Warning.

I hope to update the forecast with more specifics in a couple of hours.

Barry Lynn

Monday, February 13, 2017

Weather It Is (Winter Weather Warning/Winter Storm Watch (4))

Good Afternoon:

The global ensemble forecasts have backed off a bit from a prediction for heavy snow.

Basically, the storm that will bring the coldest air is forecast to move a bit east of its previously forecast position, reducing the time it spends over the eastern Mediterranean and our area.

There will be periods of rain and thunderstorm into Tuesday night, when the rain may mix with wet snow late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning in the central mountains, and peaks of the Galilee (snow in the Golan and Hermon).

Snow is likely sometime Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning.  It looks like the arrival of the upper level "energy" (cold) will bring a burst of snow, which will probably make for dangerous driving in the area of the central mountains, and mountains of the Galilee.

Several centimeters of snow is possible, but there is still a lot of variability in the temperature and precipitation forecasts (several days in advance), so this is speculation (pending forecast information from our highest resolution model the day before).

The snow should end on Friday, regardless, but Shabbat will remain chilly.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, February 12, 2017

Weather It is (Winter Weather Warning/Winter Storm Watch (3))

Good Evening:

This has been a winter more notable for what it wasn't than for what it was.

It seemed that a number of potential winter storms passed us by, leaving winter storm enthusiasts frustrated.

I am sure that most folks have noticed the inclement weather, which has been punctuated by periods of rain or showers, as well as thunderstorms.

The chilly weather and rain will continue through Tuesday, with the heaviest rain from Netanya and then eastward to Jerusalem, and then south to Beer-Sheva.

We'll then be affected by two storms, from afternoon Wednesday until sometime Friday night.

Mixed rain and snow is likely Wednesday night becoming wet snow on Thursday in the area of the central mountains, transitioning to a drier snow Thursday night and continuing into Friday evening.

Winds should be breezy, reducing visibility in snow, but at the moment are forecast to be below blizzard levels.

The temperatures at 500 mb are forecast to be quite cold (possibly below -30 C).  However, the height of the 500 pressure level is higher than in past storms.  This suggests a moist middle to upper layer arriving with the cold air.  Indeed, the global ensemble shows a 2 to 3 times increase in precipitation amounts from Wednesday afternoon until Friday evening.

Our high resolution model will probably show even more precipitation than the global ensemble than it typically does because of this moist layer (during the time of heaviest snow), as air flows over the central mountains and precipitates out.

There is still uncertainty in the extent of the cold, so stay tuned.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Winter Weather Warning/Winter Storm Watch (2))

Good Morning:

Thunderstorms have arrived as a week of winter weather is upon us.

The storm actually consists of three parts.

In Part 1, there is strong upper air support (with temperatures at 500 mb below -25 C), but with lower level temperatures moist, but not particularly cool. This means we will have periods of rain/thunderstorms with heaviest amounts from just north of Tel-Aviv, south to Beer-Sheva, and eastward to the Dead Sea area. Part 1 will persist from now until Tuesday night.

Part 2 is from early Wednesday into Thursday morning. At this time, there is some uncertainty about the strength of the upper level support, but lower levels (850 mb) and middle levels (700 mb) are cold enough for a wet snow in the central mountains and other high elevation areas.

Part 3 is from Thursday afternoon into Saturday morning.  There is greater certainty that there will be significantly cold temperatures at all levels of the atmosphere, leading to a prolonged period of accumulating snow.

Barry Lynn

Saturday, February 11, 2017

Weather It Is (Winter Weather Warning/Winter Storm Watch)

Good Evening:

We've had several Erev Shabbat where the global forecast ensembles have hinted at an upcoming  mid-week snow. We've opened our computers Motzei Shabbat and (at least for some) been disappointed.  The system either moves too far west or remains to our north.

But sometimes -- and just sometimes (we live in the Mid-East) -- things are different and this Motzei Shabbat is the exception.

Our high resolution forecast model shows a fairly steady rain from Sunday into Tuesday, while the GEFS shows periods of precipitation continuing into Friday.

Moreover, the GEFS suggests that 850 mb temperatures will fall a couple of degrees below zero late Tuesday night, while 700 mb temperatures potentially fall below -12 C.  Wintry temperatures should be with us into Shabbat.

Five hundred millibar upper level support appears that it may arrive as early as Wednesday, but is more likely on Friday into Shabbat.  By this I mean that temperatures could fall well below -25 C, which will set up conditions more favorable for a heavier snowfall late in the week.

Because temperatures at 500 mb should be -25 C or below during the initial rain event, expect instability to increase and thunderstorms (with graupel and/or hail).

We'll take each forecast as it comes, and update you accordingly.

Barry Lynn

Friday, February 10, 2017

Weather It Is (Uncertainty)

Good Afternoon:

We live in uncertain times.

There is an American President who believes that the road to governing is to buy a "Tweeter."  Just the other day, our "Iron Dome" defense system intercepted four missiles that were lofted from the Sinai towards Eilat. Our government seems to pass new laws that are not grounded in jurisprudence, raising the likelihood (but not certainty) that they will be struck down. Lastly, even our forecasts are laden with uncertainty.

For instance, there is the possibility, but not certainty of showers on Sunday. There is a greater likelihood, but not certainty of rain on Monday and Tuesday.  And there is even the possibility -- but not certainty -- of our first real snow of the year Wednesday and Thursday.

Quite frankly, the uncertainty is the result of a clash of world views.  You have the conservative Americans who have held their hand until now (no snow), only to perhaps moderate their views a bit.  True, the country is republican, but the winter/snow loving Democrats are now slated to win at least 30% of the times.  On the other hand, the Liberal Europeans have been holding fast to their belief that the greatest happiness is when doesn't work -- that is: a vacation snow day (or two) mid-week.

Where do I stand on this: I was always a Democrat until I moved to Israel -- but they and I have parted ways over what I consider to be unfair criticism of Jews living anywhere besides where they the Democrats say it is okay.  On the other hand, I've always believed that folks are entitled to a few vacation days -- that work and no play makes Shlomo a dull boy.  So, I am moderating my views -- becoming more positive about life (or at least snow) this coming week.

The reasons is that the GEFS (GFS Ensemble) is now showing middle (and even upper) air ensemble members that could produce snow (with temperatures below -10 C at 700 mb, and below -27 C at 500 mb).  These forecasts are consistent with the mean, colder and snowy signal from the European forecast Ensemble and the Canadian forecast model.

I think the issue will be decided Motzei Shabbat, so stay tuned.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Thursday, February 9, 2017

Weather It Is (GFS vs ECMWF)

Good Afternoon:

It's a fight between models.  The early morning update from each model differed in one important way: while both the GFS and ECMWF bring a period of rain and cold, only the ECMWF (ensemble) supports the continued development of the upper level trough mid week to bring a possibility of our first real snow in two years.

Perhaps as a hint of things to come, the latest GFS ensemble (GEFS) from 0600 UTC suggests that indeed the upper level trough will strengthen mid week.

Personally, I'd rather be in NY where they are expecting about a foot of snow from a storm this morning and afternoon (NY time).  I would really like to be able to transport from one snowstorm to the next, and then back to my warm bed by evening (Israel time), or a little later if needed.

In the meantime, expect temperatures to rise a bit until Friday evening, when they will plunge downward all the way until Wednesday.  Precipitation on Shabbat will be continue until sometime Tuesday although the precipitation will not fall steadily throughout the period.  Temperatures may be close to freezing on Tuesday (and Wednesday), but snow will fall only if the secondary development occurs in the upper level trough.

On a postive note -- if you like snow -- the Canadian forecast model predicts snow mid-week. However, Canadians like snow, so we should expect this.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, February 8, 2017

Weather It Is (Winter Will Return)

Good Afternoon:

Today's weather is pleasantly warm and dry.

Tonight a cool front will pass through from the west and bring a chance of light showers and cooler weather on Thursday.

Temperatures should warm a bit on Friday and Shabbat, but Motzei Shabbat will start a downward trend in temperatures, and winter should return in the form of rain and wind, with snow on the Hermon.

The GEFS (Global Forecast Ensemble System model) is indicating that temperatures will likely fall to near freezing on Monday night into Tuesday and remain on the cold side until the end of the week.

Right now, there is a 40% chance of a light (and wet) snow Tuesday into Friday, with a 10% chance of a more significant snowfall in the Jerusalem area.

It seems that this winter is full of "almost" snowfalls -- we are just not getting good phasing of the upper level troughs (nor very cold air) with the cold air in the lower atmosphere -- as we have had numerous close calls.

We don't live in a particularly snowy climate, although there have been periods (or decades) where it did snow more often -- even quite a lot -- just not recently.

Barry Lynn

Monday, February 6, 2017

Weather It Is (Nice Weather, But)

Good Morning:

Today and tomorrow will be turning into the nicest days of winter, with mild temperatures tomorrow (Tuesday).

In fact, Shabbat morning's sunshine and milder temperatures reminded my daughter of summertime, but afternoon high clouds reminded us of winter.

It looks like the cool front arriving late Tuesday night will bring only cooler temperatures, but not rain.

A trend towards warmer weather Thursday into Friday will be followed by a prolonged cool down, and rain is likely next week.  Three of the global model forecasts suggest that the cooling trend will reach cold enough levels to bring heavy rain and wet snow.  These forecasts basically build the developing trough far enough south to remind us that winter is not yet over.

Barry Lynn

Friday, February 3, 2017

Weather It Is (Ups and Downs)

Good Afternoon:

We had an exciting weather week with a decent rain, followed by some very cold air and temperatures near (or even below) freezing in various locations (not just in the higher elevations).  Certainly, the Hermon had some of its coldest weather of the year. We even have some ice on our swimming pool (and water does not freeze unless temperatures are below freezing).

Quite frankly, though, wintertime is running out.

Looking at the long range forecast, we see that the 4th and 7th of this up coming week will be on the warmer side, with the 7th warmer than its peak on the 4th.

We see a chance of rain showers on the 8th or 9th of the month, followed by cooler weather thereafter.

In the middle of next week -- on about the 12th, there could be a more significant rain.  Afterwards,  we'll have to decide whether to go up to spring or down to winter.  At the moment, I am getting 80% of the folks calling for spring, with (only) a minority asking for possible return to more winter like conditions.

This is surprising because usually most people want at least one snow during winter, and our 2 cm + snowfall of last Shabbat didn't really count. So, I can't explain the 80/20 split, except to think that my wife has been influencing people (she hates winter, and when I do something annoying she lets me know).  I find it simply amazing that a winter loving person (myself) could marry a summer loving person (my wife), but they say that opposites attract (at least this works with magnets).

So, here's hoping for more winter!

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn