Weather It Is (Winter Arrives)

Good Evening:

The debate between the air conditioner and the heater was won this past Friday night by the heater. With a long rumble of thunder and additional flashes of lightning -- and some light rain -- the warm weather of Friday was replaced by much cooler weather of Shabbat.  No longer is the window open and no longer will the air conditioner cool the air.

True, this week's weather won't be particularly cold, but the nights will be on the chilly side, and some clouds and additional some showers on Monday and (hopefully) heavier rain at the end of the week will have folks running to turn on the heat.

The cause of our winter time weather is a deepening trough in the eastern Mediterranean, which will bring the coldest weather of the fall/winter season as we head into the end of the week and early next week.  The rain is not forecast to be very heavy, but it should be enough to make for a wet day or two in areas from the north to central areas (although there is still some uncertainty about how far south into central Israel the rain will get).

With the cold weather comes a greater desire for something sweet to eat with a cup of hot chocolate.
Thus, I was not surprised when my wife mentioned that her mother used to make a very moist and tender chocolate cake.  Unfortunately, the recipe has been lost -- but not to worry I found something that at least is called "Moist and Tender Chocolate Cake (picture of what's left over and recipe below).

This all seems very innocent, but then I checked the calendar.  You see, my wife made this request just a few days before her birthday period (here we celebrate birthdays from the date in the Gregorian calendar until the date in the Hebrew Calendar -- or vice versa).  While a birthday boy or girl could conceivably get presents on any of his or her birthday days, it occurred to me that my wife was also trying to get two cakes (tradition says: just one cake) for one birthday. So, I did the smart thing: I declared the start of her birthday period two days early.  So, despite her objections,  she's now a year older even though she's really not.

Barry Lynn
P.S. You can make the icing from powdered vanilla or chocolate pudding, with the addition of one regularly sized container of Rich's whipping cream, and some powdered sugar, etc).

https://www.verybestbaking.com/recipes/32386/Moist-and-Tender-Chocolate-Cake

Weather It Is (Where The Rain?)

Folks are asking me "when it's going to rain", and that's if they haven't already asked me "where is the rain?"

Well, if your a fish this coming week will develop just the way you want it -- a few jumps above the surface and you'll be able to get a clean fresh water bath.  For us people, though, we'll stay seasonably mild, as a trough of low pressure develops over the eastern Mediterranean. This storm should produce a lot of rain over the sea, as it progresses only slowly eastward, possibly reaching our area very late in the week or early next week.  In fact, it might come soon after we add an additional prayer for rain in our long "Shomei Esre" (18 parts)  daily prayers.  This would be great, as we need to get started early this season to reduce the severe water deficit from last year.

In the meantime, an upper level trough will scoot across our area on Monday which will possibly touch off some tropical showers.  Otherwise, we should stay dry at least until the end of the week.

As a weatherman I have to be careful what I say, as I don't want to rain on someones parade, and then have it turn out to be a beautiful day (or vice versa).  

Nevertheless, I was taken aback by the criticism heaped on Mayim Bialik for daring to write: "I still make choices every day as a 41-year-old actress that I think of as self-protecting and wise...I dress modestly. I don’t act flirtatiously with men as a policy."  She then wrote that in an ideal world, women would be able to dress the way they want with out fear of predatory men, but one shouldn't be naive about the world we live in.

After intense criticism, she then issued an apology stating that: "what you wear and how you behave does not provide any protection against assault... [etc] you are never responsible for being assaulted."

She is technically correct: a gazelle that gets eaten by a lion is never responsible for being eaten. But really, the ones that do not get eaten often exercise greater care or do not put themselves in a position that they are more likely to become a lion's dinner.  Moreover, if a lion has to choose between an obviously tasty, well fed, gazelle and one that is not, it will choose whichever will bring the greater reward.

In all this discussion, what I believe women don't want to hear and really objected to is any suggestion that how they dress might affect how others, including predatory men who see them as someone to be taken advantage of.  After all, Ms. Bialik specifically wrote that nothing excuses predatory behavior, so why the intense criticism?

The facts are this: men and women use their beauty/good looks, attractiveness, and brains to get ahead in this world.  Orthodox Jewish law suggests that both sexes should exercise modesty in public areas for various reasons (e.g., to protect marriages, to emphasize the importance of inner personal characteristics over the physical world, etc).  This message -- that modesty in appearance/public life is a positive, even worthy attribute -- is what the criticism was really about.  It goes against the dogma of feminism that women should know no constraints. 

Lost in the shouting is that it is quite possible that modest behavior may indeed offer some protection from predators.  I don't know, but it is worth discussing.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Still Fall...)

Good Evening:

Peoples wardrobes are changing over and the weather is to blame.

We even had our first rain last Monday (October 9th). I measured 0.12 inches (or about 3 mm of rain).  Since then, the weather has been on the chilly side with temperatures in the mid teens and highs in the low to mid 20s (except in the desert areas, which were closer to 30 C).

Last fall, the weather was punctuated by bouts of heat and winds that brought plenty of dust. This fall,  the winds are generally from the west and northwest.  Instead of dust, we've had more clouds and our first rain.  Moreover, the weather maps show a storm arriving on Monday, which should move southeasterly past Cyprus Sunday and then through our area on Monday into Tuesday night. The humidity maps show plenty of moisture to bring a period of showers from the north to the central areas, as we move from late Sunday night into Monday afternoon.

Tuesday should warm up as winds behind the storm switch to the south.  The warmer temperatures should persist until the end of the week, and the skies should turn a bit dusty as well. However, we see another storm possibly approaching on Shabbat or early next week, and fall weather should return as well.

Despite the chill and the rain last Monday, there was plenty of time to sit in the Sukka and exchange pleasantries.  The relaxed atmosphere was also conducive to having those heart to heart conversations people sometimes have.  Before continuing, I must interrupt to mention that when I met my wife for the first time I came prepared -- prepared with a list of what I considered positive attributes -- selling points we could call them.  In addition to having taken time off from my post-doctoral work to learn in Yeshiva, I mentioned (I actually read them off the palm of my hand) that I knew how to add numbers in my head, sweep the floor, paint, and cook.  Now back to our story: so, my wife says to me that she actually believed the stuff on the list, but didn't really think that the last item had any actionable quality to it.  In other words, she thought that she might see me outside from time to time, but never close-up where it really matters (in the kitchen). Anyway, she tells me that she is considering getting a second kitchen for Passover.  I didn't think very much of it, but it turns out that the only place we can put the second kitchen is far away from the first, and I wondered how many second kitchens in homes are really meant for husbands who thought they could cook.

Fortunately, Passover is not around the corner, and I haven't been officially banished yet.  I'll hope for the best.

Enjoy the good weather!

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Fall Like Sukkot)

Good Afternoon:

The first night of Sukkot was indeed on the chilly side, and I did, indeed, wear a light jacket. After a very hot summer, it is nice to get some fall-like temperatures, rather than the steamy weather of Sukkots' past.

Nevertheless, the next morning my wife entered the Sukka with sandals rather than shoes or even half boots.  When I pointed out that the weather did not accord with her attire, she said she didn't know it was going to be so cold.

Now, this is the person (actually woman) who sleeps an arms length away from a person (me -- a man) who actually majored in Atmospheric and Environmental science, has years of weather forecasting experience, and provides forecast on line in both English and Hebrew -- yet she didn't know.  I am not sure what to do about this, but I don't think the English/Hebrew dictionary we have in the house will help.

Well, she did helpfully point out that the clouds are clouds of winter and Sukkot (Thursday) afternoon my son reported that drops of rain fell from the sky.

Today (Friday), one can note streams of moisture moving west to east across the Mediterranean (while further south, potential tropical storms head westward off the African coast).  There is enough moisture for some rainy looking clouds to produce some light sprinkles.

Looking at the weather forecast maps, it will remain cool through Shabbat, and then Sunday afternoon we'll see a bit of a warm up.  However, the warm up will arrive ahead of a storm moving across the Mediterranean, which will bring with it Sunday night moisture at both lower (850 mb), middle (700 mb), and even upper (500 mb levels). While this doesn't look to be a heavy rain, there is the potential for more than some stray showers, and even for some small puddle forming raindrops.

The storm should be followed by even cooler weather, with temperatures during the rest of the holiday in the mid 20s (middle 70s) during the day, and mid teens (upper 50s, low 60s at night).  So, we're getting the new year off to a good fall/winter start.

Having gone through some difficult times, it was very nice to receive some good news to start off the new year.  The book "The Garden of Emuna (belief)..." (by Rabbit Shalom Arush) argues that a person must believe that both good and bad comes from "above," and that even the bad (no matter how difficult our predicament) is for our own good.

After I became more religiously observant (and after spending some time in more religious communities in America and some time learning at a Yeshiva in Israel (religious center)), it occurred to me that maybe I should move to Israel.  Why?  Because the Torah (our "Bible") is about the Land of Israel.  Even more important, I am blessed to be alive when it is actually possible for Jewish people to live in the Land of  Israel in the State of Israel -- something that was not possible for almost 2000 years.  I asked myself: how can I have any belief in God and ignore this obvious message to move here.

Still, I doubt that I am at the level of belief enumerated by Rabbit Arush, but if you ask me if I would go through what I did again, I might hesitate to say "no."  The reason: I was the recipient of so much kindness that it made a very strong impression on me. I really didn't know that people could be so kind.  Besides my wife and children who helped me through these difficult times, there were those that came to visit, and those that heard my story (everytime I told it, it receded further into the past, making it a little less painful).

They say that one should live each day as if it is one's last.  If you've had the misfortunate to try, you could easily say that it's not very practical.   However, I can suggest that what is important would be that of the days one lives (hopefully many), that one should be blessed that at least some of them should be meaningful, and at least some of them with happiness.

Modim L'Simcha/Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Some Heat, Followed By Fall)

Good Afternoon:

It's been nice, but we need to pause the weather tape and revert briefly back to more summer like weather on Monday.  Temperatures will return to the low 30s (upper 80s and low 90s) with high humidity.

However, just as quickly as the winds blow from a more southerly direction, they will turn around by Tuesday and blow from the west/northwest.  The result will be a return to temperatures in the mid 20s.  The start of Sukkot should be quite nice (some might even choose a light coat for the Sukka.

At the moment, the GFS (the global forecast model) and our WRF (higher resolution model) are showing a storm spinning up at the end of the week.  This is our first forecast storm of the season, and there is also an indication from the Global Ensemble Forecast System moel (GEFS) that a storm will indeed form in the eastern Mediterranean (meaning: if we change the initial conditions of the forecast to allow for possible error in the observations, we see that the rainy signal still persists, so we have higher confidence than if only the GFS by itself showed the storm).

This suggests that Shabbat and possibly Sunday may have fall showers.  The rest of the holiday looks to be mild and dry -- good weather for being outdoors!

Those who lived here a long time mention that it used to be rainier at the time of Sukkot than it is now.  One of those people is my wife.  When I decided to move to Israel, I also decided that I should marry an Israeli woman.  While not everyone was in agreement that this was a good idea, I thought it would make my transition from an American to Israel weather forecaster easier, so I thought it a good idea to make such an effort on my behalf (I am very practical).

It turns out that this was not necessarily the best approach to finding a wife.  You may remember that we have our differences: she likes summer and I like winter.  But there is something else: her family is from the east and mine is from the west; not only did we have to come from different directions to get here, but the cultures from which we base our world view are also different.

For instance, it is her firm belief that the children should be served first, while where I'm from the father is served first.  Despite my protestations that I need to eat first (and quickly) so I can be ready to hunt Mastadon, she has insisted on her way being right.

Until recently...

Recently being the time after my operation when I looked (and acted) distressed enough that I was served first (and sent off to bed).

Other "advantages:" I was told that I'm not allowed to lift heavy objects, so no taking out the garbage.  Cleaning the floors is also too strenuous.  If it weren't for the fact that I was quite sick, I really would have been living the highlife -- maybe even better than the family in "Dowton Abby."

Alas, my six weeks grace period is running out and quite frankly I'm not ready to return to my old work routine (or rather I don't want to).

Fortunately, I found a very interesting and useful website ("irresponsiblehusbands.com").  After checking off that you're not a robot and not a woman, you can gain access to this site.  For a small fee you can get a doctor's note for just about anything, including making a mess in the kitchen ("husband must be allowed to make mess to reduce stress and chance of ...").

I printed out three or four doctor's notes, and am ready to hand them to my wife (and kids) very soon.

Hag Samaech!

Barry Lynn