Weather It Is (Some Cold, Some Rain, And...)

Good Evening:

After a warm day, the winds have switched from southeasterly to northwesterly with the passage of a cold front.  The front will bring some light rain.  In fact, there could be showers through the mid-week period, with some tropical (heavier) showers as the week progresses.

During the last week, the GFS ensemble (GEFS) forecast that there would be two periods of heavier rain (Monday, and then again Wednesday).  While rain is in the offing, the forecast system is not nearly as cold as originally forecast -- moreover, it will even turn a bit on the tropical side (and, as noted, there could be some heavier tropical showers).

In fact, temperatures beyond Monday will continue to warm up until about the end of the week, when a cooling trend is indicated.  The end of the month should end on a cool note, and some of the forecasts are predicting quite unseasonably cold weather.  Given the prior track record of the model (of being overly progressive with cold, winter like systems), we need to take this forecast with a bit of spring optimism.

Barry Lynn