Good Afternoon:
Winds are picking up as colder air arrives from the northwest. The cool, early spring air should remain with us until Monday morning. However, Monday afternoon will warm up, and Tuesday and Wednesday will be even warmer still.
With the cool air will come some showers, with the most likely chance of rain late today (Friday evening) over the far south and Saturday night and Sunday morning in the center of the country.
The end of the coming week will turn cooler, and there will again be a chance of spring showers.
At this time, the weather will most likely be pleasantly warm and sunny for Pesach.
Shabbat Shalom, Hag Kosher Samaech Pesach,
Barry Lynn
Friday, March 31, 2017
Monday, March 27, 2017
Weather It Is (Spring Cleaning)
Good Evening:
There's a bit of a chill, temperature wise. However, warmer air will arrive late Tuesday afternoon, and it will be nicely warm by late Thursday evening.
However, a cold front will arrive Thursday night, showers may pop up Friday, and Shabbat will likely be rainy.
The cold air will last into Monday of next week. It should warm up a bit towards the end of next week, but Pesach's weather looks to be more of the same. Neither spring or winter, and no real rain either.
Barry Lynn
There's a bit of a chill, temperature wise. However, warmer air will arrive late Tuesday afternoon, and it will be nicely warm by late Thursday evening.
However, a cold front will arrive Thursday night, showers may pop up Friday, and Shabbat will likely be rainy.
The cold air will last into Monday of next week. It should warm up a bit towards the end of next week, but Pesach's weather looks to be more of the same. Neither spring or winter, and no real rain either.
Barry Lynn
Saturday, March 25, 2017
Weather It Is (Not Spring -- Don't Forget!)
Good Evening:
True, pre Pesach Chamatz is in the air, but spring has not sprung.
Moreover, while temperatures should warm up to even somewhat warm levels over the next few days, they will plummet to more chilly levels at the end of the month and the beginning of April. The cold weather will probably bring some April showers as well.
It just ain't spring -- yet.
I used to ask my mother how she ever had kids, considering what I'd heard about having one (not the part after, but the part that starts it all off). She said that mothers must just forget -- otherwise, they'd never do it again.
I was thinking about this when the wife mentioned that she'd already been cleaning for Pesach, and she didn't know how she was going to finish on time. She's mentioned this a few times, even reviewing with me the difficulty associated with the job (and even more with certain parts of it) -- as if I would appreciate the ins and outs of cleaning for Pesach.
But to be honest, she really has forgotten -- and I bet that most wives forget too. Husbands do help clean for Pesach, and they probably do it every year -- and the wives forget that they did (every year).
Don't tell her, but tomorrow may just be a day she'll forget come next Pesach.
Shavua Tov,
Barry Lynn
True, pre Pesach Chamatz is in the air, but spring has not sprung.
Moreover, while temperatures should warm up to even somewhat warm levels over the next few days, they will plummet to more chilly levels at the end of the month and the beginning of April. The cold weather will probably bring some April showers as well.
It just ain't spring -- yet.
I used to ask my mother how she ever had kids, considering what I'd heard about having one (not the part after, but the part that starts it all off). She said that mothers must just forget -- otherwise, they'd never do it again.
I was thinking about this when the wife mentioned that she'd already been cleaning for Pesach, and she didn't know how she was going to finish on time. She's mentioned this a few times, even reviewing with me the difficulty associated with the job (and even more with certain parts of it) -- as if I would appreciate the ins and outs of cleaning for Pesach.
But to be honest, she really has forgotten -- and I bet that most wives forget too. Husbands do help clean for Pesach, and they probably do it every year -- and the wives forget that they did (every year).
Don't tell her, but tomorrow may just be a day she'll forget come next Pesach.
Shavua Tov,
Barry Lynn
Tuesday, March 21, 2017
Weather It Is (Its Neither Here Nor There)
Good Evening:
It's been chilly these last few days. It's been cloudy these last few days. It's been a tad windy.
I've written before about how our weather is generally just plain nice, but the weather we've had in the last several days (if not more) is neither here (Spring) or there (Winter).
True, there may be some springtime rain over the far south and far north during the next few days, but temperatures won't really moderate from this Tuesday to the next. Moreover, the long range forecast suggests that a trough will build in from the north, possibly bringing a heavier rain to the end of the month, and even unseasonably cool weather.
I say "possibly" because the forecast has oscillated between something just "annoying" (more of the same, but even cooler than the coming seven days) to something more on the winter rainy side, without any clear signal.
Time to go south!
Barry Lynn
It's been chilly these last few days. It's been cloudy these last few days. It's been a tad windy.
I've written before about how our weather is generally just plain nice, but the weather we've had in the last several days (if not more) is neither here (Spring) or there (Winter).
True, there may be some springtime rain over the far south and far north during the next few days, but temperatures won't really moderate from this Tuesday to the next. Moreover, the long range forecast suggests that a trough will build in from the north, possibly bringing a heavier rain to the end of the month, and even unseasonably cool weather.
I say "possibly" because the forecast has oscillated between something just "annoying" (more of the same, but even cooler than the coming seven days) to something more on the winter rainy side, without any clear signal.
Time to go south!
Barry Lynn
Saturday, March 18, 2017
Weather It Is (Some Cold, Some Rain, And...)
Good Evening:
After a warm day, the winds have switched from southeasterly to northwesterly with the passage of a cold front. The front will bring some light rain. In fact, there could be showers through the mid-week period, with some tropical (heavier) showers as the week progresses.
During the last week, the GFS ensemble (GEFS) forecast that there would be two periods of heavier rain (Monday, and then again Wednesday). While rain is in the offing, the forecast system is not nearly as cold as originally forecast -- moreover, it will even turn a bit on the tropical side (and, as noted, there could be some heavier tropical showers).
In fact, temperatures beyond Monday will continue to warm up until about the end of the week, when a cooling trend is indicated. The end of the month should end on a cool note, and some of the forecasts are predicting quite unseasonably cold weather. Given the prior track record of the model (of being overly progressive with cold, winter like systems), we need to take this forecast with a bit of spring optimism.
Barry Lynn
After a warm day, the winds have switched from southeasterly to northwesterly with the passage of a cold front. The front will bring some light rain. In fact, there could be showers through the mid-week period, with some tropical (heavier) showers as the week progresses.
During the last week, the GFS ensemble (GEFS) forecast that there would be two periods of heavier rain (Monday, and then again Wednesday). While rain is in the offing, the forecast system is not nearly as cold as originally forecast -- moreover, it will even turn a bit on the tropical side (and, as noted, there could be some heavier tropical showers).
In fact, temperatures beyond Monday will continue to warm up until about the end of the week, when a cooling trend is indicated. The end of the month should end on a cool note, and some of the forecasts are predicting quite unseasonably cold weather. Given the prior track record of the model (of being overly progressive with cold, winter like systems), we need to take this forecast with a bit of spring optimism.
Barry Lynn
Friday, March 17, 2017
Weather It Is (Rapid Changes)
Good Afternoon:
The overcast skies and light rain in the far north are due to over running tropical moisture. No showers are forecast for other areas besides the far north. Moreover, our lightning network doesn't show any lightning storms in our vicinity.
The tropical air will bring a quick warm up, which will last into Motzei Shabbat (it will also bring some dust).
However, a cold front will bring some showers on Monday, and a storm may bring rain mid-coming-week.
In both cases, there is still a lot of uncertainty about rain amounts or the degree of the cold with the rain.
We're in a transition time, weatherwise, and the storms are neither too defined or too strong. In any case, we're still not past the rainy season just yet.
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
The overcast skies and light rain in the far north are due to over running tropical moisture. No showers are forecast for other areas besides the far north. Moreover, our lightning network doesn't show any lightning storms in our vicinity.
The tropical air will bring a quick warm up, which will last into Motzei Shabbat (it will also bring some dust).
However, a cold front will bring some showers on Monday, and a storm may bring rain mid-coming-week.
In both cases, there is still a lot of uncertainty about rain amounts or the degree of the cold with the rain.
We're in a transition time, weatherwise, and the storms are neither too defined or too strong. In any case, we're still not past the rainy season just yet.
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
Wednesday, March 15, 2017
Weather It Is (Winter Hangs On)
Good Afternoon:
It does seem a little hard to get use to: one day its warm, and the next it is on the nippy side. Moreover, there will be some light rain late today along the coast, and some light rain over the central and northern areas tonight into tomorrow morning.
For those who say they've heard this before, but that the merchandise wasn't delivered: perhaps you gave the wrong address? On Purim day I left Efrat and drove into a driving rain (even before leaving the city's edge). When I returned, the roads were quite wet (and they were wet in Jerusalem, too, where an umbrellas was carried but not opened) about 1 km beyond the northern entrance. Yet, they were "bone-dry" before the entrance to the first "main" road Zerubavel. My wife says she counted the drops at our cottage-home, and gave me a rather annoyed, if not perplexed look. The looks sort of said: "I should have married a doctor, if not a good carpenter").
Not to be deterred, I will mention that it should warm up a bit on Friday and Shabbat, and there could be some tropical rain. Of course, for those who have been following the weather, they might remember that until yesterday the forecast suggested that the end of the week looked to bring a cold, if not icy rain -- but that is not the case anymore. Still, the GFS forecasts a decent rain on Monday of next week (and cold temperatures), while its cousin (the GFS Ensemble) indicates about a 25% chance of a good soaking rain.
Temperatures should warm up, regardless, after the passage of the (rainy) system early next week.
Barry Lynn
It does seem a little hard to get use to: one day its warm, and the next it is on the nippy side. Moreover, there will be some light rain late today along the coast, and some light rain over the central and northern areas tonight into tomorrow morning.
For those who say they've heard this before, but that the merchandise wasn't delivered: perhaps you gave the wrong address? On Purim day I left Efrat and drove into a driving rain (even before leaving the city's edge). When I returned, the roads were quite wet (and they were wet in Jerusalem, too, where an umbrellas was carried but not opened) about 1 km beyond the northern entrance. Yet, they were "bone-dry" before the entrance to the first "main" road Zerubavel. My wife says she counted the drops at our cottage-home, and gave me a rather annoyed, if not perplexed look. The looks sort of said: "I should have married a doctor, if not a good carpenter").
Not to be deterred, I will mention that it should warm up a bit on Friday and Shabbat, and there could be some tropical rain. Of course, for those who have been following the weather, they might remember that until yesterday the forecast suggested that the end of the week looked to bring a cold, if not icy rain -- but that is not the case anymore. Still, the GFS forecasts a decent rain on Monday of next week (and cold temperatures), while its cousin (the GFS Ensemble) indicates about a 25% chance of a good soaking rain.
Temperatures should warm up, regardless, after the passage of the (rainy) system early next week.
Barry Lynn
Monday, March 13, 2017
Weather It Is (Chilly, And Then Rain)
Good Evening:
The storm we spoke about last week is about to blast the New York City area back to remembrances of the Blizzard of 1888. If 20 inches accumulates in Central Park, it will break the snow record set back then.
Here, our weather has a definite chill to it, and -- in fact -- the whole week will be on the chilly side. Moreover, light rain may occur as early as Wednesday, and a heavier precipitation event is likely for Shabbat into Sunday. Winds may also be quite strong with the upcoming storm as well.
I've been following the weather discussion for NYC and vicinity for a few days now. This is when I really miss my old home (or rather, the weather I grew up with). True, we've have fantastic weather on the whole here, but I could really use a late winter storm to get myself in the spring mindset. This might seem strange, but you have to remember that many plants and animals need winter-type weather to get ready for spring. In fact, fruit trees won't produce fruit without enough cold weather hours during wintertime.
Anyway, it might warm up briefly before the next onslaught of cold weather at the end of the week, but then again it might not.
The last whole week in March looks to be a bit more seasonable.
Barry Lynn
The storm we spoke about last week is about to blast the New York City area back to remembrances of the Blizzard of 1888. If 20 inches accumulates in Central Park, it will break the snow record set back then.
Here, our weather has a definite chill to it, and -- in fact -- the whole week will be on the chilly side. Moreover, light rain may occur as early as Wednesday, and a heavier precipitation event is likely for Shabbat into Sunday. Winds may also be quite strong with the upcoming storm as well.
I've been following the weather discussion for NYC and vicinity for a few days now. This is when I really miss my old home (or rather, the weather I grew up with). True, we've have fantastic weather on the whole here, but I could really use a late winter storm to get myself in the spring mindset. This might seem strange, but you have to remember that many plants and animals need winter-type weather to get ready for spring. In fact, fruit trees won't produce fruit without enough cold weather hours during wintertime.
Anyway, it might warm up briefly before the next onslaught of cold weather at the end of the week, but then again it might not.
The last whole week in March looks to be a bit more seasonable.
Barry Lynn
Saturday, March 11, 2017
Weather It Is (Purim Day + A Purim Spiel?)
Good Evening:
Last night was full of lightning pyrotechnics, including one lightning flash that I saw travel across the sky from south to north.
The weather has not been particularly nice, but tomorrow will be a bit milder. However, it will remain dusty with occasionally strong winds.
The mild weather will be short-lived, though, as a cold front and some rain arrives to wet the central and northern areas as the Jerusalem Purim night transitions into Purim day. The rain will be heavier up north.
One might think that spring would still be around the corner. But, if one lives along the eastern coast of the United States one would not be wrong if one thought spring had sprung quite some time ago, yet spring will soon be buried under winter's revenge. After a moderate snowfall, a northeaster (if not a blizzard) will dump more than a foot of snow in many locations Monday night into Tuesday night -- and temperatures are already and will be about 20 F below normal (not even reaching freezing).
So, what's the connection to our weather?
The large ripple in the atmospheric circulation seems to be tied to our own jet stream ripple as the chilly weather should persist until the end of this week. Moreover, we also see the potential for a significant rain as the end of the week approaches and the new begins, with quite possibly chilly if not cold temperatures. On the other hand, while rain is likely at the end of the week, there is a greater chance that temperatures will turn milder than turn even chillier still.
Purim Samaech,
Barry Lynn
Last night was full of lightning pyrotechnics, including one lightning flash that I saw travel across the sky from south to north.
The weather has not been particularly nice, but tomorrow will be a bit milder. However, it will remain dusty with occasionally strong winds.
The mild weather will be short-lived, though, as a cold front and some rain arrives to wet the central and northern areas as the Jerusalem Purim night transitions into Purim day. The rain will be heavier up north.
One might think that spring would still be around the corner. But, if one lives along the eastern coast of the United States one would not be wrong if one thought spring had sprung quite some time ago, yet spring will soon be buried under winter's revenge. After a moderate snowfall, a northeaster (if not a blizzard) will dump more than a foot of snow in many locations Monday night into Tuesday night -- and temperatures are already and will be about 20 F below normal (not even reaching freezing).
So, what's the connection to our weather?
The large ripple in the atmospheric circulation seems to be tied to our own jet stream ripple as the chilly weather should persist until the end of this week. Moreover, we also see the potential for a significant rain as the end of the week approaches and the new begins, with quite possibly chilly if not cold temperatures. On the other hand, while rain is likely at the end of the week, there is a greater chance that temperatures will turn milder than turn even chillier still.
Purim Samaech,
Barry Lynn
Friday, March 10, 2017
Weather It Is (Showers and Thunderstorms)
Good Afternoon:
Showers and thunderstorms should affect the coastal, central mountain areas, and southern areas south to Beer-Sheva late afternoon, evening. Showers will persist through the night, and perhaps redevelop in the mid-afternoon on Shabbat.
Otherwise, chilly with strong winds and dust.
Barry Lynn
Showers and thunderstorms should affect the coastal, central mountain areas, and southern areas south to Beer-Sheva late afternoon, evening. Showers will persist through the night, and perhaps redevelop in the mid-afternoon on Shabbat.
Otherwise, chilly with strong winds and dust.
Barry Lynn
Weather It Is (Stormy Weather)
Good Afternoon:
Our lightning detection networks shows a strong area of convection located between Cyprus and Crete. Thunderstorms will develop ahead of and with an approaching storm system -- characterized
by high upper level vorticity (divergence aloft).
Weather Warning: Thunderstorms with a chance of flooding rains, strong winds, and dust -- this afternoon into this evening.
Our lightning detection networks shows a strong area of convection located between Cyprus and Crete. Thunderstorms will develop ahead of and with an approaching storm system -- characterized
by high upper level vorticity (divergence aloft).
Weather Warning: Thunderstorms with a chance of flooding rains, strong winds, and dust -- this afternoon into this evening.
- Our high resolution forecasts do not show much rain with this system, but the GFS does show showers. The GFS includes a parameterization for unresolved convective storms, so the fact that the GFS shows rain just supports the fact that the approaching system will create instability in the atmosphere. Forecasting the occurrence of thunderstorms a few hours in advance requires the use of our lightning network as input data into our high resolution model (this forecast will be run soon).
- The greatest chance of rain is this afternoon into this evening, while there will be a chance of showers on Shabbat.
- It will also be very windy, and dusty, and our relatively warm temperatures will turn chilly by this afternoon.
- Ahead of the next system right on the heels of this one, Sunday will be a tad warmer, but there will be lots of dust and winds again strong enough to blow off any Purim hats.
- Monday (Purim Shushan) should be rainy, very windy, and showers may continue into Tuesday.
- The days thereafter should stay cool until the end of the week. At that time, there is a 70% chance it will turn dry and warm, and a 30% chance it will turn chilly with rain.
Shabbat Shalom, Purim Samaech,
Barry Lynn
Thursday, March 9, 2017
Weather It Is (Purim Rain)
Good Morning:
Our "balmy" weather will come to an end this evening.
A cold front arriving from the west will drop temperatures by about 10 C by Shabbat morning.
The cold air will bring showers Friday into Shabbat.
Perhaps in the Purim spirit of rapid changes to our fortunes, temperatures will quickly warm ahead of the next storm system Shabbat afternoon which will arrive Motzei Shabbat/Purim night. This storm system should bring additional showers and chilly temperatures through the end of Shushan Purim in Jerusalem.
Temperatures should warm nicely thereafter, but the last week of March may bring more rain.
Barry Lynn
Our "balmy" weather will come to an end this evening.
A cold front arriving from the west will drop temperatures by about 10 C by Shabbat morning.
The cold air will bring showers Friday into Shabbat.
Perhaps in the Purim spirit of rapid changes to our fortunes, temperatures will quickly warm ahead of the next storm system Shabbat afternoon which will arrive Motzei Shabbat/Purim night. This storm system should bring additional showers and chilly temperatures through the end of Shushan Purim in Jerusalem.
Temperatures should warm nicely thereafter, but the last week of March may bring more rain.
Barry Lynn
Monday, March 6, 2017
Weather It Is (Did You See That?)
Good Evening:
Some people like it hot, while others like it cold. I hope that either don't mind a bit of rain and chilly weather on Purim.
One might think of March as being a transition month -- between winter and spring. However, one might be excused for thinking that the month of March isn't (and won't be) any different than the month of February, if not January.
The forecast shows a series of ridges and troughs moving through the eastern Mediterranean, with rain chances highest from this Friday into Sunday morning. Moreover, it is striking that temperatures fall about 15 C between Thursday evening and Sunday morning.
One headline is that Purim may bring Strong, if not Gale Force winds.
Beyond Purim, there is a lot of variability in the forecasts, although the ECMWF Medium Range Forecast suggests that there will be above normal temperatures with below normal precipitation.
Barry Lynn
Some people like it hot, while others like it cold. I hope that either don't mind a bit of rain and chilly weather on Purim.
One might think of March as being a transition month -- between winter and spring. However, one might be excused for thinking that the month of March isn't (and won't be) any different than the month of February, if not January.
The forecast shows a series of ridges and troughs moving through the eastern Mediterranean, with rain chances highest from this Friday into Sunday morning. Moreover, it is striking that temperatures fall about 15 C between Thursday evening and Sunday morning.
One headline is that Purim may bring Strong, if not Gale Force winds.
Beyond Purim, there is a lot of variability in the forecasts, although the ECMWF Medium Range Forecast suggests that there will be above normal temperatures with below normal precipitation.
Barry Lynn
Thursday, March 2, 2017
Weather It Is (Something Cold and Something Hot, But...)
Good Evening:
A weak storm will approach tonight and bring a period of rain to the north and central part of the country late tonight and Friday.
Friday looks to be a chilly day, but Shabbat should see the start of a warming trend that may continue all the way into next Shabbat!
However, like a large wave approaching shore, the very strong, and possibly unusual warmth bringing ridge of high pressure may be followed by winter cold. In fact, we're pretty sure it will get cold early the week after next, but there is a 25% chance that mid-March will bring a real winter storm (complete with heavy rain and strong winds).
Stay tuned, but in the meantime pass the cold and enjoy the spring warmth that is on the way.
Barry Lynn
A weak storm will approach tonight and bring a period of rain to the north and central part of the country late tonight and Friday.
Friday looks to be a chilly day, but Shabbat should see the start of a warming trend that may continue all the way into next Shabbat!
However, like a large wave approaching shore, the very strong, and possibly unusual warmth bringing ridge of high pressure may be followed by winter cold. In fact, we're pretty sure it will get cold early the week after next, but there is a 25% chance that mid-March will bring a real winter storm (complete with heavy rain and strong winds).
Stay tuned, but in the meantime pass the cold and enjoy the spring warmth that is on the way.
Barry Lynn
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)