Weather It Is (Winter Will Return)

Good Afternoon:

Today's weather is pleasantly warm and dry.

Tonight a cool front will pass through from the west and bring a chance of light showers and cooler weather on Thursday.

Temperatures should warm a bit on Friday and Shabbat, but Motzei Shabbat will start a downward trend in temperatures, and winter should return in the form of rain and wind, with snow on the Hermon.

The GEFS (Global Forecast Ensemble System model) is indicating that temperatures will likely fall to near freezing on Monday night into Tuesday and remain on the cold side until the end of the week.

Right now, there is a 40% chance of a light (and wet) snow Tuesday into Friday, with a 10% chance of a more significant snowfall in the Jerusalem area.

It seems that this winter is full of "almost" snowfalls -- we are just not getting good phasing of the upper level troughs (nor very cold air) with the cold air in the lower atmosphere -- as we have had numerous close calls.

We don't live in a particularly snowy climate, although there have been periods (or decades) where it did snow more often -- even quite a lot -- just not recently.

Barry Lynn