Weather It Is (Uncertainty)

Good Afternoon:

We live in uncertain times.

There is an American President who believes that the road to governing is to buy a "Tweeter."  Just the other day, our "Iron Dome" defense system intercepted four missiles that were lofted from the Sinai towards Eilat. Our government seems to pass new laws that are not grounded in jurisprudence, raising the likelihood (but not certainty) that they will be struck down. Lastly, even our forecasts are laden with uncertainty.

For instance, there is the possibility, but not certainty of showers on Sunday. There is a greater likelihood, but not certainty of rain on Monday and Tuesday.  And there is even the possibility -- but not certainty -- of our first real snow of the year Wednesday and Thursday.

Quite frankly, the uncertainty is the result of a clash of world views.  You have the conservative Americans who have held their hand until now (no snow), only to perhaps moderate their views a bit.  True, the country is republican, but the winter/snow loving Democrats are now slated to win at least 30% of the times.  On the other hand, the Liberal Europeans have been holding fast to their belief that the greatest happiness is when doesn't work -- that is: a vacation snow day (or two) mid-week.

Where do I stand on this: I was always a Democrat until I moved to Israel -- but they and I have parted ways over what I consider to be unfair criticism of Jews living anywhere besides where they the Democrats say it is okay.  On the other hand, I've always believed that folks are entitled to a few vacation days -- that work and no play makes Shlomo a dull boy.  So, I am moderating my views -- becoming more positive about life (or at least snow) this coming week.

The reasons is that the GEFS (GFS Ensemble) is now showing middle (and even upper) air ensemble members that could produce snow (with temperatures below -10 C at 700 mb, and below -27 C at 500 mb).  These forecasts are consistent with the mean, colder and snowy signal from the European forecast Ensemble and the Canadian forecast model.

I think the issue will be decided Motzei Shabbat, so stay tuned.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn