Good Evening:
Today was the last of the "warm-days."
A front will approach tomorrow (Monday) as a storm develops south of Cyprus.
Rain associated with this storm will overspread the coastal areas Monday afternoon and arrive in the Jerusalem area Monday evening.
The rain will last into mid-day, but the heaviest rain will be Monday night. Rain will also persist along the coast until the evening hours.
Rain amounts are expected to generally be between 10 and 25 mm over the extended rainy period.
The cold weather stays with us a few days and then the forecast becomes uncertain. Except, we can say that fall is gone and winter cold has arrived.
Barry Lynn
Sunday, November 29, 2015
Wednesday, November 25, 2015
Weather Is Is (A Red Sky...)
Good Afternoon:
"Red sky at night, sailors' delight. Red sky at morning, sailors take warning."
This early morning I saw a beautiful red-orange sky and immediately thought of the rhyme above. Usually, we don't have a red sky ahead of our low pressure systems, as the moisture flow is usually quite small (there's no large ocean, but the continent of Africa immediately to our southwest). However, this year seems to be a bit different -- perhaps the very strong El-Nino has perturbed the atmosphere -- and we're seeing moisture arriving all the way from the Atlantic Ocean. I've even seen the possibility of some unusually cold air early in December in our long range ensembles.
I also saw a "Sun Dog" (sunlight refracting off ice particles) this afternoon, when I exited Rami-Levy.
Yes, I went to Rami-Levy -- sort of on a whim. However, I found myself projecting into the future -- meaning that I was thinking that I would enjoy returning safely from my shopping outing.
Of course, we know that not everyone has and efforts are being made to improve safety. It's obvious that Rami-Levy is a very well run store and that the Arab (Palestinians) who work there take pride in their work. Yet, there is an obviously large part of the Palestinian population that wants nothing to do with us or the coexistence that exists at places like these. In fact, it should also be clear that the Palestinian government (leadership) does not want these opportunities for coexistence to continue as they themselves have instigated and encouraged the violence, as well as encouraging the European governments and others to boycott Israel businesses over the green-line (those that actually employ in good conditions thousands of Palestinians -- their own people!). Speaking as a scientist, where "A" leads to "B", and "A + B" just might equal "C," it is time to get rid of these folks -- just like Mr. Arafat himself was marginalised. After all you can't make peace with someone or someones whose idea of coexistence is like one hand clapping.
Getting back to our weather: one can see that we're setting up a moisture source out ahead of the approaching storm. As I mentioned, it looks like its source is the Atlantic Ocean. The storm is causing very strong convection over southern Italy and the winds around this storm are bringing gusts even here.
Here's a very nice satellite picture from AccuWeather:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/middle-east/satellite
As this storm approaches on Sunday, rain will develop generally across the area and the global ensembles suggest that it should rain Monday and Tuesday, and that there is a 50% chance that it will get downright cold and continue raining into late next week.
So, for those who were threatening to pull out the spring clothes (i.e., some who even gave me a personal complaint), winter is coming, and I don't see any warm weather for at least the next two weeks.
It's December and the weather agrees.
Barry Lynn
This early morning I saw a beautiful red-orange sky and immediately thought of the rhyme above. Usually, we don't have a red sky ahead of our low pressure systems, as the moisture flow is usually quite small (there's no large ocean, but the continent of Africa immediately to our southwest). However, this year seems to be a bit different -- perhaps the very strong El-Nino has perturbed the atmosphere -- and we're seeing moisture arriving all the way from the Atlantic Ocean. I've even seen the possibility of some unusually cold air early in December in our long range ensembles.
I also saw a "Sun Dog" (sunlight refracting off ice particles) this afternoon, when I exited Rami-Levy.
Yes, I went to Rami-Levy -- sort of on a whim. However, I found myself projecting into the future -- meaning that I was thinking that I would enjoy returning safely from my shopping outing.
Of course, we know that not everyone has and efforts are being made to improve safety. It's obvious that Rami-Levy is a very well run store and that the Arab (Palestinians) who work there take pride in their work. Yet, there is an obviously large part of the Palestinian population that wants nothing to do with us or the coexistence that exists at places like these. In fact, it should also be clear that the Palestinian government (leadership) does not want these opportunities for coexistence to continue as they themselves have instigated and encouraged the violence, as well as encouraging the European governments and others to boycott Israel businesses over the green-line (those that actually employ in good conditions thousands of Palestinians -- their own people!). Speaking as a scientist, where "A" leads to "B", and "A + B" just might equal "C," it is time to get rid of these folks -- just like Mr. Arafat himself was marginalised. After all you can't make peace with someone or someones whose idea of coexistence is like one hand clapping.
Getting back to our weather: one can see that we're setting up a moisture source out ahead of the approaching storm. As I mentioned, it looks like its source is the Atlantic Ocean. The storm is causing very strong convection over southern Italy and the winds around this storm are bringing gusts even here.
Here's a very nice satellite picture from AccuWeather:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/middle-east/satellite
As this storm approaches on Sunday, rain will develop generally across the area and the global ensembles suggest that it should rain Monday and Tuesday, and that there is a 50% chance that it will get downright cold and continue raining into late next week.
So, for those who were threatening to pull out the spring clothes (i.e., some who even gave me a personal complaint), winter is coming, and I don't see any warm weather for at least the next two weeks.
It's December and the weather agrees.
Barry Lynn
Sunday, November 22, 2015
Weather It Is (Open Road=Open Door)
Good Evening:
The weather is going to meander for the next several days, a bit cooler tomorrow, and then a bit warmer over the days that follow.
We see with high certainty that a storm will arrive next Sunday and bring a high chance of rain. However, beyond Sunday there is great uncertainty in what will follow. There are equal chances the weather will remain cool, turn quite cold (with the possibility of wet snow a remote probability), and it might even warm up bringing late fall warmth.
Ironically, I can tell you with greater certainty that we'll continue with a high probability of more stabbings (right down the road from my home -- perhaps closer), and a low probability, but an eventual certainty of at least one more shooting attack.
Why? There are various reasons, but here are the most obvious: i) an open road is like an open door (to our Palestinian attackers). They must really be laughing at us. "Oh, those Jews are so stupid! They don't even make us walk!" ii) Our defense minister, Mr. Yaalon, views us folks as commodities to be traded against the Palestinian Gross Domestic Product. Basically, he's afraid that closing their access to the roads will create further problems (unrest) down the line. Yet, he doesn't he know that there will be unrest -- there might even be a rebellion against the "instigators" (it could happen; in fact, the same people he thinks would prefer to work might even do this).
I am really afraid that it will take an even larger and more murderous attack before he takes serious action to protect us. I challenge him to be different; otherwise, I am going to start thinking of him as: Ehud -- bomb those empty buildings Barak.
We need him to act now: close the door -- close the roads and seal off their towns (wherever necessary), and let us live in our land.
Right now, I see the probability of someone I know (or even myself) dying higher than the probability that it will turn warm next week.
Barry Lynn
The weather is going to meander for the next several days, a bit cooler tomorrow, and then a bit warmer over the days that follow.
We see with high certainty that a storm will arrive next Sunday and bring a high chance of rain. However, beyond Sunday there is great uncertainty in what will follow. There are equal chances the weather will remain cool, turn quite cold (with the possibility of wet snow a remote probability), and it might even warm up bringing late fall warmth.
Ironically, I can tell you with greater certainty that we'll continue with a high probability of more stabbings (right down the road from my home -- perhaps closer), and a low probability, but an eventual certainty of at least one more shooting attack.
Why? There are various reasons, but here are the most obvious: i) an open road is like an open door (to our Palestinian attackers). They must really be laughing at us. "Oh, those Jews are so stupid! They don't even make us walk!" ii) Our defense minister, Mr. Yaalon, views us folks as commodities to be traded against the Palestinian Gross Domestic Product. Basically, he's afraid that closing their access to the roads will create further problems (unrest) down the line. Yet, he doesn't he know that there will be unrest -- there might even be a rebellion against the "instigators" (it could happen; in fact, the same people he thinks would prefer to work might even do this).
In any case, better to deal with unrest over there instead of in our emergency rooms.
We're dying right now while he pontificates!
We need him to act now: close the door -- close the roads and seal off their towns (wherever necessary), and let us live in our land.
Right now, I see the probability of someone I know (or even myself) dying higher than the probability that it will turn warm next week.
Barry Lynn
Thursday, November 19, 2015
Weather It Is (Close the Roads! Fire Mr. Kerry!)
Good Evening:
The weather is a natural phenomena. Sometimes it can be quite pleasant and sometimes it can be quite unpleasant, and even dangerous. There is not much to do except to seek shelter if the weather gets really bad.
Our neighbors, the Palestinians are not a natural phenomena. This means that something can be done to make it more difficult to murder us. It was done during "Operation Defensive Shield" and it could be done now: close the damn roads!
True, there will be a number of Palestinians who will be unable to shop and work where they are accustomed to doing so, but this is a consequence of their accepting within their society murderers, and not one or two, but many. True, the majority may now become disgruntled and even angry that they cannot work or travel, but this is the way wars usually work -- except often much worse.
As for the idea that if they're not busy working, they will join the war against us, let them do so from afar and not behind us, or as they drive by, or from the front when they crash into us, or at our bus stops, schools, and synagogues. Don't make it easy!
Also, what incentive do they (the Palestinians) have to do something to stop their friends and relatives from murdering us? They don't: they get the twin benefit of work and satisfying their so-called "Mitzva" to slaughter us.
Where is our government? They should protect us, not the Palestinians.
As for "our" Secretary of State -- John Kerry -- he should be fired forthwith. To be a qualified and effective Secretary of State one must understand both your friends and enemies. Here's what he said (excerpted) just the other day while visiting France:
“There’s something different about what happened from Charlie Hebdo, and I think everybody would feel that,”Kerry said. “There was a sort of particularized focus and perhaps even a legitimacy in terms of — not a legitimacy, but a rationale that you could attach yourself to somehow and say, ‘Okay, they’re really angry because of this and that,’” he continued.
--> In these few sentences: he justifies the murder of innocents. He continues:
“This Friday was absolutely indiscriminate. It wasn’t to aggrieve one particular sense of wrong. It was to terrorize people. It was to attack everything that we do stand for. That’s not an exaggeration.”
--> Here, he completely misses the point: their goal is not to terrorize people, but to murder as many people as possible (and they did it); their goals are world domination of the Islamic religion and the death of our civilization.
The weather is a natural phenomena. Sometimes it can be quite pleasant and sometimes it can be quite unpleasant, and even dangerous. There is not much to do except to seek shelter if the weather gets really bad.
Our neighbors, the Palestinians are not a natural phenomena. This means that something can be done to make it more difficult to murder us. It was done during "Operation Defensive Shield" and it could be done now: close the damn roads!
True, there will be a number of Palestinians who will be unable to shop and work where they are accustomed to doing so, but this is a consequence of their accepting within their society murderers, and not one or two, but many. True, the majority may now become disgruntled and even angry that they cannot work or travel, but this is the way wars usually work -- except often much worse.
As for the idea that if they're not busy working, they will join the war against us, let them do so from afar and not behind us, or as they drive by, or from the front when they crash into us, or at our bus stops, schools, and synagogues. Don't make it easy!
Also, what incentive do they (the Palestinians) have to do something to stop their friends and relatives from murdering us? They don't: they get the twin benefit of work and satisfying their so-called "Mitzva" to slaughter us.
Where is our government? They should protect us, not the Palestinians.
As for "our" Secretary of State -- John Kerry -- he should be fired forthwith. To be a qualified and effective Secretary of State one must understand both your friends and enemies. Here's what he said (excerpted) just the other day while visiting France:
“There’s something different about what happened from Charlie Hebdo, and I think everybody would feel that,”Kerry said. “There was a sort of particularized focus and perhaps even a legitimacy in terms of — not a legitimacy, but a rationale that you could attach yourself to somehow and say, ‘Okay, they’re really angry because of this and that,’” he continued.
--> In these few sentences: he justifies the murder of innocents. He continues:
“This Friday was absolutely indiscriminate. It wasn’t to aggrieve one particular sense of wrong. It was to terrorize people. It was to attack everything that we do stand for. That’s not an exaggeration.”
--> Here, he completely misses the point: their goal is not to terrorize people, but to murder as many people as possible (and they did it); their goals are world domination of the Islamic religion and the death of our civilization.
Most of my time is spent predicting the weather as well partaking in research in the atmospheric sciences. I am not qualified to be a "politician" or as a national leader. However, I can tell you that there is a fundamental difference between being reactive and proactive. Our leaders are reactive rather than proactive -- whether out of temporary expedience (our own) or because they do not fathom nor understand the depth of the evil we face (the Obama Administration). I can and I guess you also can, and I wish for new leadership!
Barry Lynn
Wednesday, November 18, 2015
Weather It Is (A Look Back/Forward)
Good Evening:
Yesterday the wife says: "you always make it rain when the kids go to school and when they come home." Today she says: "why's the heat on? Where's the rain, where's the snow?"
Being in favor of peaceful relations between the fair and not so fair sex, I didn't mention that I did exactly what she asked: it rained during the school hours and it didn't rain very much.
There's the rub. Complaints are filing in from all corners. "I hope you won't mind a bit of criticism, but I was prepared for a downpour," was just one example.
Yet, such criticism would be misplaced. Every day (four times a day) during the rainy season we run a 5 member, high resolution ensemble. Ideally, we would run a few more forecasts to "round-out" our ensemble, but this is what we can do on our current computer system. (Even so, it's a lot better than what's available elsewhere).
In any case, yesterday was a very convective situation and the various members of the ensemble had a disagreement. A large majority said that it would great more than 10 mm, while a majority said that it would rain more than 25 mm in 3 hours, both along the coast and in the Jerusalem area. Given the relative high probability of heavy rain, it was necessary to take precautionary actions. However, there was at least one or two forecasts that said: "it's going to rain, but not that much." Sometimes the minority is correct, and yesterday was one of those days.
Our goal is to be right more often than wrong when then majority says rain (lots of it), and so far we're doing better than even. While this might not matter much to you (the layman/women), it is the best approach for weather forecasting and the most accurate over the long term.
Regarding our upcoming weather: it will stay cool for the next few days and then warm up quite nicely.
You probably noticed how green the landscape is. We had some early season rain this year and combined with the occasional warm day, we've managed to make things look more like spring then fall/winter. In fact, next week's warmth will only encourage some late season plant growth.
However, all is not as it will appear. The end of the month will bring much colder weather.
While it's not clear whether this will be a rainy start to more winter like weather or not, there is a 10% chance that the first of the month will bring some wet snow to the higher elevations. (This mean that it probably, probably won't, but it might).
Barry Lynn
Yesterday the wife says: "you always make it rain when the kids go to school and when they come home." Today she says: "why's the heat on? Where's the rain, where's the snow?"
Being in favor of peaceful relations between the fair and not so fair sex, I didn't mention that I did exactly what she asked: it rained during the school hours and it didn't rain very much.
There's the rub. Complaints are filing in from all corners. "I hope you won't mind a bit of criticism, but I was prepared for a downpour," was just one example.
Yet, such criticism would be misplaced. Every day (four times a day) during the rainy season we run a 5 member, high resolution ensemble. Ideally, we would run a few more forecasts to "round-out" our ensemble, but this is what we can do on our current computer system. (Even so, it's a lot better than what's available elsewhere).
In any case, yesterday was a very convective situation and the various members of the ensemble had a disagreement. A large majority said that it would great more than 10 mm, while a majority said that it would rain more than 25 mm in 3 hours, both along the coast and in the Jerusalem area. Given the relative high probability of heavy rain, it was necessary to take precautionary actions. However, there was at least one or two forecasts that said: "it's going to rain, but not that much." Sometimes the minority is correct, and yesterday was one of those days.
Our goal is to be right more often than wrong when then majority says rain (lots of it), and so far we're doing better than even. While this might not matter much to you (the layman/women), it is the best approach for weather forecasting and the most accurate over the long term.
Regarding our upcoming weather: it will stay cool for the next few days and then warm up quite nicely.
You probably noticed how green the landscape is. We had some early season rain this year and combined with the occasional warm day, we've managed to make things look more like spring then fall/winter. In fact, next week's warmth will only encourage some late season plant growth.
However, all is not as it will appear. The end of the month will bring much colder weather.
While it's not clear whether this will be a rainy start to more winter like weather or not, there is a 10% chance that the first of the month will bring some wet snow to the higher elevations. (This mean that it probably, probably won't, but it might).
Barry Lynn
Monday, November 16, 2015
Weather It Is (Greater Certainty)
Good Morning:
The Global Forecast Systems model (GFS) and the Global Forecast Ensemble Systems model (GEFS) continue to point towards a very convective rain event.
Currently, our WRF High Resolution Ensemble (WheHRE) continues to point to three rain events of interest today. The first is down near Eilat this afternoon, where there is a high certainty of rain, with a low probability of greater than 10 mm in 3 hours. The second is in the Jerusalem area, where there is a low probability of rain this afternoon. However, the maximum possible rain amount (20%) is just greater than 10 mm in three hours.
As the weather system transitions from a Red Sea Trough later this afternoon into a strong fall-like weather system off our sea-coast, low pressure will deepen and rain will develop. Rain amounts are forecast to be quite heavy, with a very high probability of greater than 10 mm per three hours in the area of Ashkehlon/Ashdod and Tel-Aviv South (about 70%), with even higher probabilities of heavy rain in Ashkelon as the night progresses. There are equal chances (about 60%) of greater than 25 mm of rain in three hours late tonight in both southern Tel-Aviv and Ashkelon (about 60%), but the focus is on the Ashkelon area.
As we progress towards morning, the area of heaviest rain will progress eastward to between Efrat and Beer-Sheva, with a good possibility of flooding of streams and rivers developing in this area as well as from Jerusalem southward in the Dead Sea Basin.
More rain is forecast for tomorrow, and the next potential for rain is late next week.
Barry Lynn
The Global Forecast Systems model (GFS) and the Global Forecast Ensemble Systems model (GEFS) continue to point towards a very convective rain event.
Currently, our WRF High Resolution Ensemble (WheHRE) continues to point to three rain events of interest today. The first is down near Eilat this afternoon, where there is a high certainty of rain, with a low probability of greater than 10 mm in 3 hours. The second is in the Jerusalem area, where there is a low probability of rain this afternoon. However, the maximum possible rain amount (20%) is just greater than 10 mm in three hours.
As the weather system transitions from a Red Sea Trough later this afternoon into a strong fall-like weather system off our sea-coast, low pressure will deepen and rain will develop. Rain amounts are forecast to be quite heavy, with a very high probability of greater than 10 mm per three hours in the area of Ashkehlon/Ashdod and Tel-Aviv South (about 70%), with even higher probabilities of heavy rain in Ashkelon as the night progresses. There are equal chances (about 60%) of greater than 25 mm of rain in three hours late tonight in both southern Tel-Aviv and Ashkelon (about 60%), but the focus is on the Ashkelon area.
As we progress towards morning, the area of heaviest rain will progress eastward to between Efrat and Beer-Sheva, with a good possibility of flooding of streams and rivers developing in this area as well as from Jerusalem southward in the Dead Sea Basin.
More rain is forecast for tomorrow, and the next potential for rain is late next week.
Barry Lynn
Sunday, November 15, 2015
Weather It Is (Uncertainty)
Good Evening:
We're very certain that a "Red-Sea Trough" will affect our weather through tomorrow. It will bring dust and tropical showers. It will then transition into low pressure centered to our west Monday night and this center of low pressure will deepen as very cold air moves in aloft at 700 and 500 mb.
Right now, our highest resolution forecasts models keep most of the rain tomorrow over the south and in Jordan. However, the GFS precipitation (which is based on a cumulus parameterisation) forecast raises the possibility of rain even tonight and tomorrow in the eastern-center of the country, including Jerusalem. This is also shown by our 12 km WRF. Amounts are possibly 5 to 10 mm per six hours, and possibly 10 to 15 mm per 6 hours tomorrow afternoon. Our ensemble maximum forecast maps shows 5 to 10 mm south of the Dead Sea Basin and about 5 mm in the Jerusalem area.
As low pressure deepens and cold air moves in aloft Monday night into Tuesday our high resolution model is showing very heavy rain along the coast, and with the unusually cold temperatures this rain could be extremely heavy. The high resolution models show the rain staying mostly along the coast, but the GFS (again) shows rain moving inland on Tuesday.
So, the situation remains uncertain, but we need to keep in mind that we're going to be affected by a very strong late fall weather system.
Looking further in ahead: the rest of the week stays cool with a chance of showers, before a brief warming before next weeks disturbance heads our way.
Barry Lynn
We're very certain that a "Red-Sea Trough" will affect our weather through tomorrow. It will bring dust and tropical showers. It will then transition into low pressure centered to our west Monday night and this center of low pressure will deepen as very cold air moves in aloft at 700 and 500 mb.
Right now, our highest resolution forecasts models keep most of the rain tomorrow over the south and in Jordan. However, the GFS precipitation (which is based on a cumulus parameterisation) forecast raises the possibility of rain even tonight and tomorrow in the eastern-center of the country, including Jerusalem. This is also shown by our 12 km WRF. Amounts are possibly 5 to 10 mm per six hours, and possibly 10 to 15 mm per 6 hours tomorrow afternoon. Our ensemble maximum forecast maps shows 5 to 10 mm south of the Dead Sea Basin and about 5 mm in the Jerusalem area.
As low pressure deepens and cold air moves in aloft Monday night into Tuesday our high resolution model is showing very heavy rain along the coast, and with the unusually cold temperatures this rain could be extremely heavy. The high resolution models show the rain staying mostly along the coast, but the GFS (again) shows rain moving inland on Tuesday.
So, the situation remains uncertain, but we need to keep in mind that we're going to be affected by a very strong late fall weather system.
Looking further in ahead: the rest of the week stays cool with a chance of showers, before a brief warming before next weeks disturbance heads our way.
Barry Lynn
Saturday, November 14, 2015
Weather It Is (Dust Alert)
Good Evening:
With the approaching storm, dust will be overspreading the area from the south and arrive in the center/Jerusalem area in mid to late afternoon, and the north in the evening.
The dust will remain with us until late Monday.
Barry Lynn
With the approaching storm, dust will be overspreading the area from the south and arrive in the center/Jerusalem area in mid to late afternoon, and the north in the evening.
The dust will remain with us until late Monday.
Barry Lynn
Weather It Is (The End of...)
Good Evening:
Is it the end of the world as we knew it? Has it not been obvious that ISIS/DASH mean what they say and do what they mean? Has it not been obvious that if they are not stopped at the source then they will metasize like a cancer? Isn't it obvious that no weapon and no number of deaths is too small for them? They are a much bigger version of Al Quada and (if even possible) of greater evil.
Yet, what are the Europeans concerned about? Labelling the Jews. Thank God we have our own country to fight back against the menace of anti-semitism and against our enemies. Just remember: the Europeans and then the United States did nothing until it was almost too late to stop Hitler, but with the weapons of today, it takes only one to produce devastating impacts.
Anyway, one would never know from today's weather the horrors of the world (nor even yesterday's murder of a father and son on their way to Sheva Brachot by some of our neighbors who can't seem to stop themselves from murder).
However, while tomorrow will be a beautiful day weather wise, heavy rain will probably move across the south on Monday and then across all of the country on Tuesday and Wednesday.
A Red Sea trough/low pressure area will tap moisture over the Red and Arabian Sea and bring the rain on Monday to the south. Tropical thunderstorms are likely. Then, unusually cold air will move in to the area late Monday into Tuesday and ring out the air of moisture in strong rain storms, including thunderstorms.
The inclement weather will probably continue into Wednesday and cold temperatures will be with us through the end of the week.
Looking further ahead shows the possibility of even colder weather, but it might also warm up a bit. So, there is not much to say but to keep your winter clothes and rain gear handy.
Barry Lynn
Is it the end of the world as we knew it? Has it not been obvious that ISIS/DASH mean what they say and do what they mean? Has it not been obvious that if they are not stopped at the source then they will metasize like a cancer? Isn't it obvious that no weapon and no number of deaths is too small for them? They are a much bigger version of Al Quada and (if even possible) of greater evil.
Yet, what are the Europeans concerned about? Labelling the Jews. Thank God we have our own country to fight back against the menace of anti-semitism and against our enemies. Just remember: the Europeans and then the United States did nothing until it was almost too late to stop Hitler, but with the weapons of today, it takes only one to produce devastating impacts.
Anyway, one would never know from today's weather the horrors of the world (nor even yesterday's murder of a father and son on their way to Sheva Brachot by some of our neighbors who can't seem to stop themselves from murder).
However, while tomorrow will be a beautiful day weather wise, heavy rain will probably move across the south on Monday and then across all of the country on Tuesday and Wednesday.
A Red Sea trough/low pressure area will tap moisture over the Red and Arabian Sea and bring the rain on Monday to the south. Tropical thunderstorms are likely. Then, unusually cold air will move in to the area late Monday into Tuesday and ring out the air of moisture in strong rain storms, including thunderstorms.
The inclement weather will probably continue into Wednesday and cold temperatures will be with us through the end of the week.
Looking further ahead shows the possibility of even colder weather, but it might also warm up a bit. So, there is not much to say but to keep your winter clothes and rain gear handy.
Barry Lynn
Wednesday, November 11, 2015
Weather It Is (It looks wintry, but...)
Good Afternoon:
It is a cool 15 Celsius with a stiff wind, making it feel a degree cooler.
We're in a sort of strange situation. We have cool fall weather interacting with a moisture source from the Arabian Sea (thanks to a very strong El-Nino). In fact, this El-Nino has led to the formation of two tropical storms that have hit (unprecendently) Yemen. Usually, our moisture source is from the Mediterranean (and infrequently at this time of year -- with the exception of an occasional Red Sea Trough). This weather is not a typical of the weather that often effects the eastern United States where storms can tap Gulf of Mexico moisture.
Yet, winter weather will retreat over the next few days and dryer weather will expand northward around warm low pressure located to our south. This means a respite from the rain and cold temperatures.
The pushing and pulling between weather systems is not that different than what happens in my home. However, like some people are never satisfied with the weather, others are never satisfied (so it seems) with me (actually, having me around). The other day the wife says to me that she is no longer going to clean the kitchen floor on Wednesday because there always seems to be flour on the floor. Well, the reason I started making pizza (and bagels) on Wednesday is because I was pushed right out of Thursday. Strangely, I was pushed out of Friday afternoon so I wouldn't be in the way right before Shabbat, and then I was pushed out of Thursday so I wouldn't stop early preparations for Shabbat.
You probably know that I am on the shorter side of tall. For this reason I have a very handy stool my mother bought for me years ago. It's the kind that doesn't slip when you stand on it. "Oh, you can't reach that," she said? Why couldn't I reach it? Because my stool had been pushed from a handy place to a far off corner of the kitchen. One wonders what will happen to me (and the stool) when I am pushed right through the week and out its end (really its beginning).
I am hopeful, though, because I -- like the winter weather -- can always push back and back it will push after a string of beautiful days. In fact, we see another potential for heavy thunderstorms come Monday or Tuesday as strong low pressure moves eastward into the eastern Mediterranean and taps that southern moisture again.
Following the advent of the storm, the forecast is uncertain. There is a 25% chance that next weeks early storm will be followed by an even colder storm later in the week.
Barry Lynn
It is a cool 15 Celsius with a stiff wind, making it feel a degree cooler.
We're in a sort of strange situation. We have cool fall weather interacting with a moisture source from the Arabian Sea (thanks to a very strong El-Nino). In fact, this El-Nino has led to the formation of two tropical storms that have hit (unprecendently) Yemen. Usually, our moisture source is from the Mediterranean (and infrequently at this time of year -- with the exception of an occasional Red Sea Trough). This weather is not a typical of the weather that often effects the eastern United States where storms can tap Gulf of Mexico moisture.
Yet, winter weather will retreat over the next few days and dryer weather will expand northward around warm low pressure located to our south. This means a respite from the rain and cold temperatures.
The pushing and pulling between weather systems is not that different than what happens in my home. However, like some people are never satisfied with the weather, others are never satisfied (so it seems) with me (actually, having me around). The other day the wife says to me that she is no longer going to clean the kitchen floor on Wednesday because there always seems to be flour on the floor. Well, the reason I started making pizza (and bagels) on Wednesday is because I was pushed right out of Thursday. Strangely, I was pushed out of Friday afternoon so I wouldn't be in the way right before Shabbat, and then I was pushed out of Thursday so I wouldn't stop early preparations for Shabbat.
You probably know that I am on the shorter side of tall. For this reason I have a very handy stool my mother bought for me years ago. It's the kind that doesn't slip when you stand on it. "Oh, you can't reach that," she said? Why couldn't I reach it? Because my stool had been pushed from a handy place to a far off corner of the kitchen. One wonders what will happen to me (and the stool) when I am pushed right through the week and out its end (really its beginning).
I am hopeful, though, because I -- like the winter weather -- can always push back and back it will push after a string of beautiful days. In fact, we see another potential for heavy thunderstorms come Monday or Tuesday as strong low pressure moves eastward into the eastern Mediterranean and taps that southern moisture again.
Following the advent of the storm, the forecast is uncertain. There is a 25% chance that next weeks early storm will be followed by an even colder storm later in the week.
Barry Lynn
Friday, November 6, 2015
Weather It Is (Rain Again)
Good Morning:
The latest 1.3 km and 4 km ensemble forecasts show that rain should develop along the coast today south of Tel-Aviv. It then should move northward towards Tel-Aviv around noon-time, and then east of it, and then towards Jerusalem soon thereafter.
The 4 km ensemble shows the potential for 25 - 50 mm of rain in the storms right along the coast, with 25 mm per three hours more likely (60% chance) just east of the city. The heaviest rain in the central mountains should fall in the area of Jerusalem again around mid-afternoon. There is a 20% chance of rain amounts > 10 mm. The rain may slacken in the late afternoon and another 5 to 10 mm may fall in the evening time.
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
Thursday, November 5, 2015
Weather It Is (A Note)
Good Afternoon:
This is an unusual weather situation.
Low pressure located over the southern Mediterranean will continue the unusual weather pattern.
Today, instead of moisture arriving from the west, it is actually rotating around this system and arriving from the south, augmented with moisture arriving from both the Atlantic ocean (wrapping around the "Red-Sea-Trough" and Red Sea).
Models are still predicting between 10 and 25 mm this afternoon in the Jerusalem area and areas east of Tel-Aviv.
The high dust content is also encouraging the formation of high electrical charge and its discharge as lightning.
Barry Lynn
This is an unusual weather situation.
Low pressure located over the southern Mediterranean will continue the unusual weather pattern.
Today, instead of moisture arriving from the west, it is actually rotating around this system and arriving from the south, augmented with moisture arriving from both the Atlantic ocean (wrapping around the "Red-Sea-Trough" and Red Sea).
Models are still predicting between 10 and 25 mm this afternoon in the Jerusalem area and areas east of Tel-Aviv.
The high dust content is also encouraging the formation of high electrical charge and its discharge as lightning.
Barry Lynn
Weather It Is (Heavy Rain/Dangerous Conditions)
Good Morning:
The latest forecasts from 18 GMT show that the highest probability of heavy rain should be from Jerusalem south through Hebron. The timing for this is mid-afternoon. The amount of rain forecast presents a potentially dangerous situation for anyone hiking in the Dead Sea Basin, as well as for roads that interest river run-off locations. Also heavy rain can lead to ponding of water on roads, and the potential for cars hydroplaning -- leading possibly to mortal accidents.
Rain is also expected in Tel-Aviv with heavier showers east of the city. The 1.3 km forecast, for instance, still shows 25 to 50 mm, but the 4 km ensemble shows less than 25 mm in 3 hours.
I will update around noon, if necessary.
Dust concentrations will lower from mid-day onwards.
Barry
Wednesday, November 4, 2015
Weather It Is (Dust and Heavy Rain to Come)
Good Evening:
Dust spinning around low pressure located to our southwest is continuing to cause very poor visibility as well as very poor air quality. The system will shift eastward tomorrow and dust levels will lower Thursday afternoon.
At the same time cold air filtering in at 850 and 700 mb will cause thunderstorms to develop and move in off the sea. The highest probability of rain is the vicinity of Tel-Aviv and then eastward to Jerusalem and southward to Beer-Sheva, including the Dead Sea area.
There is a very high probability of rain with a greater than 70% chance of more than 10 mm in three hours from late morning until mid-afternoon. There is a 60% chance of greater than 25 mm in three hours.
The rain should continue into late tomorrow afternoon over the Jerusalem area, and then heavy rain is again possible Friday afternoon as more cold air arrives.
The heavy rain will probably lead to flooding in city streets and streams/rivers in the Dead Sea Valley.
We're still looking at stronger winter storm early/mid-next week.
Barry Lynn
Dust spinning around low pressure located to our southwest is continuing to cause very poor visibility as well as very poor air quality. The system will shift eastward tomorrow and dust levels will lower Thursday afternoon.
At the same time cold air filtering in at 850 and 700 mb will cause thunderstorms to develop and move in off the sea. The highest probability of rain is the vicinity of Tel-Aviv and then eastward to Jerusalem and southward to Beer-Sheva, including the Dead Sea area.
There is a very high probability of rain with a greater than 70% chance of more than 10 mm in three hours from late morning until mid-afternoon. There is a 60% chance of greater than 25 mm in three hours.
The rain should continue into late tomorrow afternoon over the Jerusalem area, and then heavy rain is again possible Friday afternoon as more cold air arrives.
The heavy rain will probably lead to flooding in city streets and streams/rivers in the Dead Sea Valley.
We're still looking at stronger winter storm early/mid-next week.
Barry Lynn
Tuesday, November 3, 2015
Weather It Is (Dust)
With the intensification of low pressure to our southwest, dust has arrived and will persist until Thursday afternoon.
Our dust forecast maps show that some of the plumes rotating in from our east will have high intensities of dust, especially tonight and tomorrow. Highest dust amounts should be located over the eastern part of the country, especially in the Jerusalem area and Jordan and Dead Sea Valleys, as well as the eastern Arava.
Barry Lynn
Our dust forecast maps show that some of the plumes rotating in from our east will have high intensities of dust, especially tonight and tomorrow. Highest dust amounts should be located over the eastern part of the country, especially in the Jerusalem area and Jordan and Dead Sea Valleys, as well as the eastern Arava.
Barry Lynn
Weather It Is (A Storm Arrives)
Good Afternoon:
A storm is located over the southern Mediterranean. It has characteristics of a Red Sea trough but will actually become a closed low just north of Sinai during the next 24 hours. It will bring the chance of tropical showers in the south and possibly the Jerusalem area later today. There will also be strong winds.
The storm will continue to spin tomorrow and with it the chance of showers as well.
By late on Thursday, however, cold air will filter in at all atmospheric levels and the storm will intensify and move eastward across our coast. With it should come heavier rain with the possibility of flooding in flood prone areas, including city locations and the Dead Sea and Jordan Valleys.
The cold air will continue its grip well into next week, and the global model are indicating that rain amounts will be generally increasing across our country through this time period. In fact, there is a 25% chance that an even stronger winter storm will arrive mid next-week.
Barry Lynn
A storm is located over the southern Mediterranean. It has characteristics of a Red Sea trough but will actually become a closed low just north of Sinai during the next 24 hours. It will bring the chance of tropical showers in the south and possibly the Jerusalem area later today. There will also be strong winds.
The storm will continue to spin tomorrow and with it the chance of showers as well.
By late on Thursday, however, cold air will filter in at all atmospheric levels and the storm will intensify and move eastward across our coast. With it should come heavier rain with the possibility of flooding in flood prone areas, including city locations and the Dead Sea and Jordan Valleys.
The cold air will continue its grip well into next week, and the global model are indicating that rain amounts will be generally increasing across our country through this time period. In fact, there is a 25% chance that an even stronger winter storm will arrive mid next-week.
Barry Lynn
Sunday, November 1, 2015
Weather It Is (Changing Weather)
Good Evening:
The weather has been certainly very nice, but it won't stay that way.
True, Monday and Tuesday should be fine weather days, but a storm is brewing.
It should arrive late Tuesday night and Wednesday and last until at least the end of the week.
It will probably arrive with convective rain and then cooling temperatures off the sea should bring a lighter, but possibly more persistent rain.
From mid this week until mid next week temperatures will probably fall to chilly levels. For this reason, I will probably be receiving a greater number of complaints than usual. However, we're ready and we have operators standing by to make you feel better and offer suggestions for staying warm.
When the storm arrives on Wednesday, temperatures will drop at 500 mb. However, the temperatures at 700 mb will not be changing very much, meaning that developing rain showers will need to "break through" a slight capping layer -- but when they do this brings stronger convective storms than when temperatures fall off simultaneously at both lower, middle, and upper levels. So, we'll have to see how this develops and report later on.
Until then, enjoy the next two days.
Barry Lynn
The weather has been certainly very nice, but it won't stay that way.
True, Monday and Tuesday should be fine weather days, but a storm is brewing.
It should arrive late Tuesday night and Wednesday and last until at least the end of the week.
It will probably arrive with convective rain and then cooling temperatures off the sea should bring a lighter, but possibly more persistent rain.
From mid this week until mid next week temperatures will probably fall to chilly levels. For this reason, I will probably be receiving a greater number of complaints than usual. However, we're ready and we have operators standing by to make you feel better and offer suggestions for staying warm.
When the storm arrives on Wednesday, temperatures will drop at 500 mb. However, the temperatures at 700 mb will not be changing very much, meaning that developing rain showers will need to "break through" a slight capping layer -- but when they do this brings stronger convective storms than when temperatures fall off simultaneously at both lower, middle, and upper levels. So, we'll have to see how this develops and report later on.
Until then, enjoy the next two days.
Barry Lynn
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