Weather It Is (Severe Weather Event Continues)

Good Evening:

Low pressure continues to spin off our coast in the eastern Mediterranean.

Unfortunately,  a shot of very cold air will be arriving at 500 mb late tonight and tomorrow. Very strong convection is now forecast to develop during this period and move in off the coast.

The heaviest rain is forecast by the model to occur in an arc from Haifa southeastward to the Jerusalem area and then back westward to Beer-Sheva.  The highest probability for heavy rain is in the Jerusalem area mid-afternoon Thursday into the evening, with total rain amounts from 10 mm south to between 25 and 50 mm in the Jerusalem area (including into the Dead Sea Valley).

Right along the coast, the cities of Ashkelon,  Tel-Aviv, and Netanaya may see very heavy rain as storms developing over the sea nudge their way inward to these coastal cities before redeveloping along the Galilee and central mountain spines. Amounts could be above 25 mm in a 3 hour period from late tonight into early afternoon.

We're also expecting plenty of lightning with these storms and strong wind gusts.

The rain should taper off by early Friday, but return again early next week as another wave of early season rain heads our way.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Rain Days)

Good Evening:

While today was predominately rain free, except in the south (where it rained 8 mm in Eilat), our weather will be taking a turn for the worse (or towards winter).

Tonight rain will develop along the coast and make its way eastward by morning.  Rain will fall generally from Beer-Sheva northwards, and continue "off-and-on" into Thursday.  Amounts will accumulate over time to between 25 to 50 mm in many locations.  Some of the storms moving in off the sea will be quite strong, so it is necessary to prepare for strong winds, bouts of heavy rain, and lightning.

The rain will be courtesy of a strong upper-level (500 mb) trough phasing with a low pressure in lower levels.  Temperatures will be dropping by another 5 degrees Celsius at all levels.

Looking further ahead. while it may warm up as the new month approaches, there is also a 20% chance that it will get downright cold (and wet).

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Dangerous Weather Update

Good Morning:

Heavy rain is expected in the Jerusalem area this afternoon and evening.  The rain will spread into the Dead Sea Basin and flooding is likely there.  Heavy rain will also occur in the area of Beer-Sheva and Mitzpe Ramon that will also bring a high likelihood of flooding.

Heavy rain in the Arava down to Eilat will bring flooding throughout this area, and rain in the mountains east of route 90 will probably flood the road and contribute to flooding in Eilat.

Heavy rain on Monday could lead to flooding in coastal cities, with continued flooding in the areas previously mentioned, as well as the Jordan Valley.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Dangerous Weather)

Good Evening:

We're still on track for a major rain event.  The 4 km (36-72) hour forecast shows rain continuing on Monday, with especially heavy amounts near Ashekelon, Mitzpe Ramon, and the Dead Sea Basin.  Totals may be greater than 50 mm from the area of Jerusalem south to Beer-Sheva, including within the Dead Sea Basin itself.  Heavy rain is also forecast in the Arava, as well as the mountains east of Eilat.

While I can't provide specific details about river flow, this does seem to be potentially very dangerous situation, which should evolve from early afternoon until evening from the eastern Sinai/western Arava through the center and into the Dead Sea area by mid to late afternoon, and then continue through the night, affecting all parts of the country.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Note on The Dust)

Good Afternoon:

Late Shabbat and into late Sunday dust levels will be increasing from southwest to northeast.

By mid-day Sunday, dust levels could reach extreme values in the desert areas of the south.

The dust will clear out with the rain late Sunday.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (The Second Rain/Flooding)

Good Morning:

Widespread rain is expected on Sunday.  By widespread, we mean that rain should stretch from just northwest of Eilat, and then northeastward through the Arava, the Dead Sea and Jordan Valleys, as well as the Sinai, up through the western Coastal regions, the Galilee, and Hermon.

The rain amounts will generally be between 10 and 25 mm, but because these heavy amounts should fall even in the south and desert regions, we can expect wide-spread flooding in normally dry river beds.  Even if Eilat is spared the rain, it may be affected by river flow as well from the direction of the Sinai and northern river beds.  There is a high probability of rain as the ensemble maps are pretty much "locked in" on this event.  Some of the convective storms in the Sinai might actually bring more than 25 mm of rain.

The temperatures should be mild on Shabbat, but then fall off by about 12 Celsius on Sunday as the storm approaches.  There is a chance of showers on Shabbat, but the main rain should come from Sunday late morning until Monday morning.  Rain showers will probably continue into mid week.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (People are Complaining (Again))

Good Evening:

"Where's winter?  They want to know.  I get this question in the home and out.  I can be innocently  minding my business (actually, scanning the streets for potential Palestinian Zombie attackers) when out will pop someone: "Where's winter?"  They look at me like "what are you doing?"

Well, the day before last I titled my blog "Winter Approaches" and I can tell you that I meant what I said and wrote what I said.

A small wave of low pressure will approach tomorrow, while temperatures cool slightly.  Some tropical showers are possible.  Cooler weather will follow for Tuesday through Thursday.  A moderate warmup is likely in Shabbat and then temperatures will fall off by about 10 C.

The end of this week, or very early next week,  will see a higher possibility of showers, generally across the country.  However, there is no clear signal at 500 mb so we can't speak yet about rain amounts.  However, all global ensemble members agree that it will rain at some point next week.

Looking ahead the showers sees fall-like temperatures through the end of the month and into early next month.

True, it's not winter, but winter is approaching.  Just a little patience is needed.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Winter Approaches)

Good Evening:

The weather has certainly been nice.  Much better than the "situation."  One wonders if one "solution" is to close down social media, so that the continuous lies inherent in Palestinian media and social media can no longer be so easily spread.

Had a generation of children not been brought up to hate (and be incited to murder), the past progress (sometimes fragile) towards coexistence (at least among some) might just be bearing fruit.  Of course, this was and is the whole point: to prevent any reconciliation among the Jewish and (what are now called) the Palestinian people.

Anyway, like the situation, the weather will drift along for several days slowly without much change, but because of the season there is still a large potential variability in temperatures from forecast.

However, if not early next week, then certainly by the end of next week the weather will change and more winter like conditions will arrive.  It won't be particularly cold, but it will feel more fall-like.  There is a high likelihood of precipitation, but the amounts are still unclear.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Zombies)

Good Evening:

We're under cloudy skies, with light breezes.  It's 25 C (today's temperatures reached a high of 29) with 66% humidity. The dust that we had earlier should be advecting southward through the desert regions overnight and out of our area.

Temperatures are actually headed cooler (by mid-week several degrees), but will warm up a bit by the end of the week.

These swings are hard to take.  However, they're nothing compared to our situation where the Palestinian people have been turned into Zombie attackers (from the Times of Israel (http://www.timesofisrael.com/two-israelis-gravely-injured-in-fresh-jerusalem-stabbing/)):

"An eyewitness described the assailants to Channel 2 as being young teenagers, 13 or 14 years of age. The woman said they were armed with 'machetes.'"

Through years of educating their young in the schools, in the mosques, and through media propaganda, they've come to hate Jews and have now been unleashed upon us.

Keep in mind that various voices warned against the indoctrination going on within Area A/B (now "Palestine;" or 38% of the area referred to by many as the "West Bank," but in Israel as Judea and Samaria), but various governments did nothing to stop the Palestinian Authority (now Palestinian government) from poisoning their children.  (Of course, the citizens of Gaza have already been poisoned as well.)

So, now we have herds of Zombies and I am -- quite frankly -- short on words of what to do about it. At least in the movies ("Cannon Fodder" of 2013) Israel came out on top.

I am not sure what the future will bring in this regard, but I am more sure that the next two weeks show a cooling trend from Shabbat onwards, and that 25% of our forecasts suggest a more significant rain by the end of the following week.

Let's hope so -- maybe it will keep our neighbors inside.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (The Rain That Was Again)

Good Morning:

Reading that Hamas has declared a "Day of Rage," one wonders why more is not said about this.  Imagine if fathers were to declare a "Day of Rage."  I suppose it would be fine if they were to kick the dog, beat the wife, and yell at the kids (God forbid for all of them).  Yet, when Hamas declares a Day of Rage against the Jews no one says a word.  What kind of people declare a Day of Rage?  Do you find this normal? What kind of people post Youtube videos encouraging their young men and women  to stab someone (a Jew, actually) in the neck?  Yet, you still find a number of people (fortunately not everyone in the world) who can't think of anything worse that there exists the State of Israel -- the only country in this part of the world where these actions would be a crime.

That said, it was nice to notice almost 5 mm of rain in my rain gauge this morning. I received quite a bit of criticism from the son for not notifying him clearly in advance about this (although, I do remember mentioning something about this).  We're in a bit of an unstable weather pattern, which may still bring some showers into mid-afternoon.

However, temperatures will begin to warm up on Shabbat and over the next few days the skies should become predominately sunny with more pleasant fall temperatures.  There may be a small atmospheric wave of low pressure mid next week, but the next more significant chance for rain is about two weeks out (currently at 10%).

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (And So It Was)

Good Evening:

Rain showers -- some of them heavy -- were scattered here and there from the coast to the center, to the north and south to Beer-Sheva.

The Times of Israel (quoting the IMS) wrote:

"The city of Ashdod clocked the highest precipitation at just over 40mm, according to the Israel Meteorological Service. Other cities in the central region also reported high levels with 35 mm in the Sharon, 25mm in Raanana and 27mm in Ashkelon. Tel Aviv recorded a total of 15mm."

For us in the center, it was the storm that didn't quite do it. However, the probability of rain amounts greater than 10 mm was actually quite low.

Looking ahead, it should remain cool with scattered showers (mostly along the coast) into Shabbat.

From Shabbat onwards, we see that the 850 mb level will be warming up by several degrees.  Temperatures will be on the warm, but not very warm side early next week.  Beyond mid next week, we really can't see what is going to happen -- other than not too warm nor too cool.

However, at mid and upper levels (700 and 500 mb, respectively) temperatures are cooling off.  We will likely end up two weeks down the line about 5 degrees Celsius cooler than where we are now (at 500 mb), meaning that the atmosphere is preparing itself for fall clouds, some showers, and winter.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Fall Rains Arrive)

Good Evening:

The summer has come to an end, and perhaps we are all ready to wish it goodbye.

Of course, there is always a lone protest to be heard -- I know at least one person who prefers summer to winter, but she will remain unnamed.  Let that be our only differences!

A strong fall low pressure system will move into our area tomorrow (Tuesday).  Temperatures at 850 mb will fall off into the mid teens, while sharply decreasing to a cool fall 5 C at 700 mb and minus low teens at 500 mb.  The sharp temperature profile coupled with plenty of moisture will create strong convective storms, with possibly 50 to 100 mm of rain falling in the coastal regions and northern mountains Tuesday night.  Rain amounts of around 25 mm will fall in the central areas, with the Jordan and Dead Sea Valleys seeing the possibility of flooding.

Showers should persist into Wednesday and then fairer, but cooler weather will return for the end of the week.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (So It Ends)

Good Morning:

It is very hard to read about the shooting death murder of the Naama and Eitan Henkin Thursday evening.  It could have been worse as four of the couples children were in the car. There was also an attempted murder with a large rock that broke the windshield of a family traveling nearby. Both families were on their way home.

Unfortunately, it is what we expect from our "neighbors" (the Palestinians), even if we hope for better.

While it is true that "Sticks and stones can break my bones, words can never hurt me," the words of the Palestinian leadership and its clergy encourage not wars of words, but of deadly weapons (whether they be a gun or a rock).  Just as one chooses to pick up a weapon, one might choose the path of peaceful relations and words instead -- but they don't (and this includes Mr. Abbas, their apparent president for life).

Our string of beautiful weather will also come to an end on Sunday, and Monday will start a turn towards colder fall like weather.  We see a very strong signal in the atmosphere at both 850 and 700 mb, where temperatures will fall off by more than 10 degrees Celsius.  The signal at 500 mb is weaker, and we'll have to wait this out in order to see just how much rain will fall later on Tuesday (Isra-Hag) into Wednesday.

However, it looks like there will be periods of rain from at least Beer-Sheva northward to the Hermon, including the central mountains of Jerusalem.  Winds will also be gusty.

The inclement weather should be followed by a warm-up, but not the kind of warm-up that reminds you of late summer, but of fall.

Modim L' Simcha,

Barry Lynn