Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Weather It Is (Another Hot Day -- Faster Mosquitoes)

Good Afternoon:

It's quite hot, but the heat will be moderating a bit on Wednesday, and then cooler (springlike) temperatures will return for the end of the week.

We don't see any hot temperatures on the horizon.  Rather, we see the possibility of some tropical showers mid next week.

In any case, the heat will be gone soon, and spring will be here.

Last night we were accosted by a mosquito.  It seems like the newest batch of mosquitoes are faster, quicker, and smarter than the last batch.  The one we had in our room hid behind night table and managed to evade a fast moving shoe -- several times -- before meeting its end (on the same shoe).  You know you're in trouble (with the mosquitoes that is) when your wife recounts the harrowing process -- only to end in a moment of pride and satisfaction.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, April 26, 2015

Weather It Is (It Ain't Easy)

Good Afternoon:

The other day my wife had some "choice" words for me.  Actually, she's always polite, but the meaning was clear.  You see, I am not particularly tall, wealthy, or handsome, and yet she married me.  What I am trying to say is that the one thing she found really attractive about me -- that I could shorten the winter and prolong the summer days -- just hasn't happened the way she expected.  In fact, someone pointed out that this was one of the longest winters they can remember.  I actually recorded our first rain at the end of October and our (probably) last rain was on the 23rd of April (that is almost a full six months of rain!).

It ain't easy.  The other day I was in Jerusalem and happened upon a protest.  I figured that this was your typical protest: housing prices are too high, food costs are too much, or simply that we don't elect representatives but parties.  But no, as I drew closer the chant of "No More Winter; No More Winter!" became very clear.  After I'd run what I thought was miles, but was really kilometers, the group -- in their fur coats -- past me by. Apparently, I'd been recognized.  I have to tell you, though, it was a bit ironic that the sign I chosen to hide behind was an advertizement for the beaches of Tel-Aviv -- and it wasn't wintertime.

Fortunately, I will now be able to deliver on what one of the items I promised in our "Ketuba:" more summer weather.  At least for the next few days temperatures will be on the upswing and will reach their peak highs around Wednesday.  Afterwards, a weak area of low pressure (possibly a Sharav) will pass by and bring a short-lived cooling trend.  Yet, for all of that, we don't see any return to winter time, and the chance of rain about two weeks out is about 10%.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, April 23, 2015

Weather It Is (Quick Independence Day Update)

Good Morning:

There will be strong winds (50 km/h) with higher gusts from coastal sections to the mountains inland this afternoon.

This will create waves of 2 to 3 meters along the coast.

There will be light showers during the day from Jerusalem northwest to Tel-Aviv and then northward to the Hermon.  Rain will be heavier over the far north, with showers along the coast and just a few showers in the Jerusalem area.

Tonight: snow or ice can accumulate in the highest elevations of the Galilee with an icy coating possible in Sefad.

Spring will arrive on Shabbat and temperatures will warm up quite a bit by mid-next-week.  However, there is a 50 % chance that a more winter-like pattern will return the following week.

Barry Lynn



Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Weather It Is (Dangerous Wind and Cold)

Good Afternoon:

Highlight: High wind warning for Dead Sea Basin this (Tuesday Evening).  Winds 50 km/h with gusts to about 70 km/h. Strong winds tomorrow (30 km/h with higher gusts)..
Highlight: High wind warning for coastal and inland mountains tomorrow (Thursday afternoon and evening).
Highlight: Cold on the mountains of the Galilee and Hermon Thursday night.
Highlight: Wet snow accumulation (1 to 10 cm) on the highest hills of the Galilee and Hermon (Bet-Jann, Har-Kenaan, Neve Ativ, Hermon mountain).
Highlight: Flood Potential: In the area of Lake Kinneret tonight into Thursday night.
Highlight: High and dangerous waves at the coastal beaches, as well in the Kinneret.
Highlight: Elevated Risk of Fire Spread Thursday because of winds.
Highlight: Lightning Risk in "Lake Effect" rain showers, especially Thursday afternoon and night (along the coast).

There is no doubt in the forecast: cold and wind are on the way.  However, most of the precipitation associated with this storm will be confined to the northern areas, with rain amounts increasing from Netanya northward (up to 30 mm).  It will arrive in the north tonight, where there will be periods of rain. There will be light rain along the coast.  Rain will intensify tomorrow afternoon in the north and then fall more heavily along the coast from very late afternoon until Friday morning.

The inclement weather is associated with a winter time trough in the eastern Mediterranean.  However, the temperatures at 500 mb will fall to only -20 C, which will reduce the potential for heavier rain/thunder/lightning.  However, because of the very cold temperatures at 850 mb (close to 0 C), there is the potential for a heavier shower to develop over the sea and produce brief periods of heavy rain showers with possible lightning.  This is most likely from Thursday afternoon into Friday morning.

The weather pattern over Europe will retrograde westward from Shabbat onwards.  This will allow the possibility for a Sharav low earlier next week to be generally followed by warm, springtime weather from mid-week onwards.

Barry Lynn


Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Weather It Is (A Roar, But Less Bite)

Good morning:

A storm is approaching.  It will bring cold temperatures and wind.

However, the storm is "moisture-starved," and temperatures at 500 mb are not particularly cold so this makes thunderstorms less of a possibility.

Here's what we expect.

Temperatures will be cooling off through Friday morning.   There will be a chance of showers in the area of Haifa late tonight and tomorrow morning, as well as in the Carmel.

Wednesday evening will be chilly and there will be light showers in the Arava at night and heavier showers in the morning along the coast.  Winds should become strong (with higher gusts) Thursday morning/afternoon.  Showers should occur in the central mountains mid-to-late afternoon,

The cold will intensity Thursday night, but no significant rain is expect.  Friday will be chilly, and then we will start a warming trend to spring.  Perhaps, this will be the last we see of winter until the next.

To our heroes and families onYom Zikoron and Happy Independence Day,

Barry Lynn

Sunday, April 19, 2015

Weather It Is (People Are Still Asking)

Good Afternoon:

People are still asking about the weather for Israeli Independence Day (Thursday).  The same may be said for Israeli Remembrance Day (Wednesday).

The latest forecast shows that warm temperatures will peak on Monday, and then we will be on a descent into Friday morning.

Regarding rain chances: it is still unclear how much rain there will be with this system, but there will be a chance of showers from Tuesday into Friday.  There is a 20% chance of rain on Wednesday, a 30% chance of rain on Thursday and a 40% chance on Friday.

Regarding rain intensity: this storm may be colder than wet, but until we get within range of higher resolution forecasts we will not be able to speculate further.  The reason the storm may be "colder than wet" is because there is only a 10% chance that temperatures at 500 mb will fall to about -25 C (which usually indicates the potential for strong convection). On the other hand, the sea is relatively warm so cold 850 mb temperatures (near zero) may create "lake-effect" rain showers or even thundershowers (similar to the heavy snow showers we had on a Friday evening in January as 850 and 700 mb temperatures were comparatively cold, even when 500 mb temperatures were not).

Strong or even gale force winds could create dangerous conditions in locations with temporary lightning, etc.

Barry Lynn

Saturday, April 18, 2015

Weather It Is (Is There An Explanation for This Insanity?)

Good Evening:

Perhaps there is an explanation for our "crazy" weather:

http://earth.huji.ac.il/data/file/danny/144_Givati_AR13_Israel_rain_trends%20(1).pdf

Nevertheless, we are nearing the end of April and there is still a chance of snow.  Of course, it will probably not accumulate snow in the higher elevations of the center, but snowflakes may again be observed.  More likely, it will snow on the Hermon and then the question becomes whether the next round of winter weather will be accompanied by another period of severe thunderstorms.  At the moment, there is a 10 to 15% chance of heavier convective storms (as indicated by colder 500 mb temperatures).

In our previous severe storm environment, temperatures at 850 mb were about + 5 C and not that much cooler at 700 mb.  They were however, close to - 25 C at 500 mb, meaning that the atmosphere was quite unstable (as measured by a change in temperature with height). In the upcoming storm, temperatures will likely be cooler in the lower atmosphere, meaning that the clouds will be less convectively unstable.

Here's what we expect. Temperatures should warm up through Tuesday, but fall off precipitiously after midnight Tuesday and be quite chilly by Wednesday Evening.  Temperatures will then continue downwards even more and remain at chilly/cold levels into Shabbat morning. The best chance for rain will be Thursday night into Friday, but as we get closer we'll be able to confirm this with greater certainty. For instance, there may be some showers as the front comes in Wednesday.

The winter weather will come with periods of strong winds.

Warming temperatures and a possible Sharav are possible early next week.

Barry Lynn

Friday, April 17, 2015

Weather It Is (People Are Asking)

Good Afternoon:

Our weather site doesn't show particularly bad weather for evening of Independence Day, nor Independence Day itself.

One has to keep in mind, though, that the blog discussion is based on an ensemble of global model forecasts while our site shows the forecast from a single realisation of the weather (the "GFS" forecast) downscaled to a higher resolution appropriate for our country.

What the latest forecast shows is that the winter cold should start to settle in on Wednesday and reach its minimum cold sometime on Independence Day or Thursday night. Along will the cold will come either strong or even gale force winds.  At the same time, there are indications that the upper level trough will be more severe than previously indicating, raising the possibility of severe thunderstorms again during this period (more likely late Thursday into Friday morning.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (No Cooperation!)

Good Morning:

Well, certainly the next few days will be nice -- as winds switch to the southwest and milder air flows our way. Skies should be mostly clear with just a slight tinge of dust.

However, on Tuesday, a storm in the southern Jet Stream should phase with the northern Jet Stream and this will set the stage for a return of winter.  Now, I don't mean the normal topsy-turvy weather of past years (a warm pre-indenependence day/Yom Zikoron) followed by a bit of chill and wind.  I mean some real winter chill and strong winds (with the changeover from mild weather to colder weather beginning Tuesday night). At the moment, this storm looks to be relatively colder in the lower atmosphere than upper atmosphere, so any rain that falls would be more of the lighter variety.  For example, temperatures at 850 mb may reach  1 or 2 C by Friday morning, but at 500 mb only -17 C (compared to +6/-24 C during our booming thunderstorms of yesterday.

The cold weather should last into Shabbat, when temperatures should moderate a bit.  They may fall off on Sunday and then a Sharav low will threaten us from the south with more extreme heat and dust early the week after next.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, April 16, 2015

Weather It Is (Flood Warning)

Good Morning:

Likely flooding in the area of the Dead Sea.

Yesterday's forecast predicted around 10 mm of rain in the Jerusalem area, as well the Dead Sea Basin.

The 18 GMT 1.3 km update predicts 25 to 50 mm of rain from the present group of thunderstorms. Lightning can kill, be careful!

The heaviest predicted rain is from the northern Dead Sea to abou Ein Gedi, with lesser amounts south of this area.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, April 15, 2015

Weather It Is (Would Anyone Be Annoyed?)

Good Afternoon:

Would anyone be annoyed (with me) if Yom Atzmohut (Independence Day) turns windy and cold (and maybe even rains)?

I ask because the bearer of (potentially) bad news is, sometimes (or more often) blamed for whatever transpires (even if wrongly so).

As someone just said to me: our weather pattern is still more like winter than spring (and definitely not summer).  Waves of low pressure continue to move across Europe and high pressure anchored over northwestern Europe continues to amplify the trough over eastern Europe.  The phasing of southern stream storms (which by themselves might not be noticed) with the northern jet stream periodically provides us with a reprise of winter.

At the moment, there is a 25 to 30% chance that our Independence day will, in fact, be not an ideal day for the beach, as well as a picnic.

Until then, we have to contend with a sharp upper level trough approaching from the west that will bring a chill and potentially light to moderate rain most likely  to the center mountains (and Dead Sea Valley) tonight and possible over the desert areas of the south tomorrow. There will be scattered showers in the north as well.

There isn't a lot of moisture with this storm, but the intensity of the 500 mb trough suggests the potential for a rumble of thunder and a flash of lightning (and, possibly, a heavier shower as well).

From Shabbot until mid-next week, temperatures will start to warm up and eventually feel like spring -- just in time for possibly a brief return of winter.

Barry Lynn

Monday, April 13, 2015

Weather It Is (Dramatics)

Wow, what a dramatic week!  It started off with everyone deciding to head out of Egypt on a cold and damp morning -- and not everyone wanted to get out of their warm beds to do so, but they did it anyway.  But, the weather cleared and we had four days of increasingly warm and beautiful weather.  Then, as we neared the promised land, the atmosphere split and it turned cold and rainy again as cold air rushed in from the far north (Siberia, to be more exact); in fact, it was so cold that it even snowed a bit.  Fortunately, we'd all arrived -- and settled in our promised land -- and the periods of heavy rain and hail didn't bother us a bit -- except one.

"What kind of Pesach was that?  Where is spring?  The sun? How could you do this to me?"

I guess she was asking: what is the point of being married to a "weatherman" (I prefer the term: meteorologist) if I can't even plan correctly our one week of weather for our vacation?

Now, in my opinion, there was weather for everyone. There was weather for those who like a bit of excitement, or even just a bit more winter.  There was weather for those who listen for the first song of spring. In fact, the weather during Chol H'Moed was perfect and that was -- in my opinion what was important.  I guess this just shows that what the husband thinks is important is not necessarily in tune with what the wife thinks.

With that, my apologies for those who want a quick return to spring.  While it will warm up a bit, a weak storm will approach on Thursday and bring a chance for light rain.  True, it will warm up from there, but we still  see a 10% chance of another more serious rain early next week (i.e., a bit of winter).

Looking farther out brings an 80% chance that the weather will turn pleasantly warm by the end of the month.  Of course, that's climatology -- or what we expect -- and once in a while husbands do what is expected of them.

Barry Lynn



Saturday, April 11, 2015

Weather It Is (Winter's Last Blast)

Good Evening:

An unseasonably cold winter storm is upon us.  It will bring 25-50 mm of rain generally to locations from the coastal plain inland to the central and northern mountains from tonight into tomorrow evening.  About 20 cm of snow will fall on the Hermon.

Temperatures at 850 mb will fall off tonight to about 1 C by the morning and remain there until about Monday morning.  Meanwhile, temperatures at 700 mb will fall to almost -10 C, and -27 C at 500 mb by morning.  While temperatures are cold enough in the upper atmosphere for snow at the higher elevations of the center and Galilee, they are barely cold enough for snow at the lower levels.  Moreover, the surface temperatures, perhaps owing to warm sea surface temperatures, are not predicted to fall below 3 or 4 C in these areas.

Hence, while we expect thunderstorms along the coast tonight and tomorrow, and thunderstorms inland over the mountains, the best we can "hope" for is for rain mixed with hail (graupel) and snow at times, especially early morning (before surface temperatures warm up again with the rising sun).  Our models do indeed suggest that rain will mix with graupel and snow in Gush Etzion and the Galilee, while there could be ice pellets in Jerusalem.  We wouldn't be "against" a heavier snow shower, but it would have to come in an extremely intense thunderstorm.   Nevertheless, temperatures should be too warm for any lasting accumulation in these areas.

It's a winter storm in spring time, but only the highest elevations in the Golan (e.g., Neve Ativ) and the Hermon should note the unusual occurrence of an accumulating snow.

Rain tonight and tomorrow may bring flooding to the area between Beer-Sheva and Mitzpe Rimon, as well as the Dead Sea.

Chilly weather will remain with us through mid-week when another weak storm may bring more rain.


Barry Lynn

Thursday, April 9, 2015

Weather It Is (In Free Fall --> To a Soft Landing?)

Good Afternoon:

The temperatures are in free-fall until tomorrow (Friday morning).  From Friday morning until Monday, temperatures will remain unseasonably cold.

Snow is likely on the Hermon Friday afternoon and evening (with a light accumulation).  There will be periods of rain from tomorrow morning into Shabbat from the center to the north.  Rain should spread to the southern Desert areas late Saturday into Sunday.

The cold at upper levels will intensity late Saturday into Sunday.  Temperatures will fall below the "benchmark" -25 C, and possibly reach as low as -27 C.  The unseasonable cold at 500 mb will continue into Sunday evening.

Meanwhile, closer to the surface the spring sun will keep temperatures relatively warm -- although unseasonably cold for this time of year.  Nevertheless, there is the possibility of wet snow in the higher elevations of the center and northern Galilee Saturday night into Sunday morning.  Any precipitation on Sunday should fall as rain, except for the possibility of ice pellets during thunderstorms. There should be moderate snow amounts on the Hermon.

The cold looks to continue until mid-week.

Updates will be issued if needed.

Hag Samaeach,

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, April 8, 2015

Weather It Is (Off the Precipice)

Good Evening:

This afternoon I had the pleasure of hiking in the beautiful Elah Valley.  I was careful not to step into any large holes (the area is full of wildflowers, thorns, and caves).  Unfortunately, the city of Beit Shemesh is planning to add a huge number of neighborhoods on the other side of route 367 (opposite the nature reserve we were visiting),  turning one of the most prettiest areas into one large concrete block.  I suppose I wouldn't mind so much if the building were done with a preservation of green spaces, but one look at Ramat Beit Shemesh shows you that it is not to be so.  Hopefully, some of the challenges to this unbridled building will succeed.

Regardless of what we want, "the weather" will soon step off its own precipice -- right into winter.  While I can't say why this is happening -- as the calendar has spring written all over it -- it will happen.  The 850 mb temperatures are poised to start dropping this evening (from their high of about 24 C) to lows of about 2 C by Friday morning.  For most of tonight and tomorrow temperatures will drop almost a degree per hour.

From Friday morning onwards, atmospheric humidity will increase and rain should develop from the north to the south.  Temperatures at 850 mb will remain just above freezing into early next week while various waves of atmospheric energy at 500 mb move through.  There is a 50% chance of rain mixing with wet snow in the north on Shabbat  and Saturday night, and a 25% of a snow/rain mixture late Shabbat into Sunday morning in the center.

The "fly in the ointment," so to speak, is the potential for thunderstorms, which could (like the previous Friday night of the 13th of February) bring periods of heavy precipitation with mixtures of rain/graupel/snow.  The intensity could be enough to whiten the ground, especially Saturday night into Sunday morning.

When we get closer to the heavy event period, we will update the forecasts based on our high resolution models (by the way, we're the only ones creating our own high resolution forecasts), so this information will only be available here with any "degree" of accuracy.

Strong winds will occur throughout the period.

Temperatures won't begin to warm up until mid next week.

Hag Samaech,

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, April 7, 2015

Weather It Is (Are Those Icebergs?)

Good Evening:

I thought that I had taken whatever steps I needed to protect myself.  I already know that at the first mention of snow I tend to dream about the white stuff, whether it is waking up at night or in the morning and seeing the ground covered in a blanket of white.  I know that I already I have to check that I am really awake, even if this means a pinch on the cheek.  What I didn't know was that I would drag others into my dreams in order to ask them if I was dreaming!  My poor daughter was blissfully dreaming of a good, sumptuous meal at a local restaurant with family, when suddenly she was dragged into my dream and saw snow falling outside the windows of the restaurant. Perhaps, I will just have to stay awake for the next few days.

Here's the situation.  Starting Wednesday evening an unusually strong (and unseasonable) winter storm will approach from the west. As the storm moves closer a front will arrive, winds will pick up, and temperatures will fall steadily into Friday morning.

While one won't be seeing any icebergs in the sea, rain chances will increase throughout Friday and become probable Shabbat into Sunday.  At the same time, there is a 25% chance that temperatures will fall far enough at 500 mb to bring snow at the higher elevations of the center and Galilee.  There is a 10 to 15% that temperatures will turn cold enough to bring a wet accumulating snow rather than more graupel-like ("hail") mixture of rain and snow.  In any case, snow may whiten the ground in heavier thunderstorms, which are likely with this type of temperature and moisture profile.

Of course, with the warm sun, any snow accumulation would have to occur late in the day or at night (or early morning).

Snow is likely in the highest elevations of the Golan and the Hermon sometime Shabbat into Sunday morning.

The winter-like cold should continue into mid-next week, and we don't see any return to the warm temperatures of today or tomorrow within the next week or so.

Modim L' Simcha,

Barry Lynn

Monday, April 6, 2015

Weather It Is (Season Ending Storm)

Good Evening:

A strong Spring storm will be moving across southern Europe.  As high pressure ridges into northern Europe, cold air will flow southward and help spin up the storm circulation over Cyprus.

At the moment, this looks like a rain storm over much of the center and northern parts of the country, with snow on the Hermon.  However, there is a 20% chance that there could be some wet snow mixed in with the rain over the higher elevations of the center and Galilee, as well in the Golan.

Of course, given the strong sun of Spring, any snow accumulation will be more likely during the night than during the day, so any specific predictions will have to wait until we get closer to this event.  With temperatures marginal for snow in the central mountains, we'd have to get a heavier thunderstorm to whiten the ground, and this can't be predicted at this time.

We do know that temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 20s away from the coast on Tuesday and to near 30 in the inland hills.  In the higher elevations (e.g., Jerusalem), temperatures should rise into the upper 20s.

However, Wednesday night into Friday morning should see a drop off of about 20 C and rain showers should arrive on Thursday.  Heavier precipitation is expected generally from Friday into early next week.  Strong winds are expected on Friday.

Winter-like temperatures will also persist into mid-next week.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, April 5, 2015

Weather It Is (The Exodus and Then What?)

Good Evening:

This morning's 00 GMT forecast indicated that the next few days will be increasingly warm, if not a tad hot in places.  They'll also be dry -- perfect weather for making the Exodus out of Egypt.

But, then, the Egyptians will change their mind and then our backs will be at the wall -- or rather the sea.  But, wait, I am mixing stories, if not metaphors.

Actually, from late Wednesday night until late Thursday night/Friday morning the atmospheric circulation will part and make way for a winter blast of quite chilly, if not very cold air.  Temperatures will drop by about 20 C.  The cold air and likely rain are both courtesy of a "digging" trough from the far reaches of Siberia (as you can see, I even got my geography wrong).

The point is that were going to feel bowled over by the weather changes.  In fact, this morning's forecast indicated a 30 to 40% chance of snow at the higher elevations (including the center).  Theoretically, this means that 3 or 4 times out of 10 that we have this discussion it should snow.  However, the fact that this cold signal is appearing at a time when climatologically speaking it doesn't snow (was said once to) suggest that we may be in for something far off the weather beaten path.  All I can say is that he might have meant that if such a signal appears among the ensemble members, then it must be a strong signal to appear at this time of year.

Don't get your hopes up just yet (if you still want snow rather than Spring), but the next update should be interesting.

Modim L'Simcha,

Barry Lynn

Saturday, April 4, 2015

Weather It Is (Pesach?)

Good Evening:

After a cold and windy start, the weather will begin to feel more like Pesach.

High pressure will nose its way out of Africa while low pressure intensifies in the central Mediterranean.  The low pressure area will move eastward and the southwesterly flow ahead of it will bring spring-like warm temperatures by mid-week.

However, the storm will drag a cold front through our area late Thursday and that will be the end of Spring, at least until sometime the next following week.

In fact, there is a 30% chance that the storm will intensify both at the surface and at higher levels of the atmosphere, meaning the possibility of snow on the Hermon and a general mid-month rain (with even some icy-snow in the higher elevations of the center and north).

While we might have changed our prayers and asked that our fields should be blessed with dew, "Mother-Nature" might have different ideas.

Modim L'Simcha,

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, April 1, 2015

Weather It Is (Is it Peach?)

Good Evening:

The wife simply states that it's not Peach without a Sharav or a good bit of dust, let alone a patch of green grass or flowers.  True, the valleys below are green, but up here in the mountains the ground is still brown and the temperatures are quite chilly.  It's an embarrassment she says!  Could one really imagine our ancestors leaving Egypt under these weather conditions?

I just returned from a trip from NY and we even had a bit of snow (twice) so I really don't mind the rain.   I thought the air smelled fresh and clean.

Still, I appreciate those who want spring to come.  Yet, they may have to wait.

After today's rain another storm will be on the way.  True, it won't be particularly rainy, but it will turn chilly again on Pesach.  Chol Hamoed will see a slow warming as the air masses warms a bit and winds turn a bit more to the south.

Yet, there is a 40% chance that Pesach will end on a chilly note and even a 30% chance that the middle of the month will turn even colder still.

Of course, I could be an optimist and say that there is a 60% chance that the end of the holiday will be beautiful.  Maybe I'll tell my wife that.

Hag Samaech,

Barry Lynn