Weather It Is (It's not Spring)

Good Afternoon:

The calendar may say spring, but the latest rain and chilly weather belies the calendar.

The reason is the continued presence of a trough of low pressure over eastern Europe with an extension into our area, the eastern Mediterranean.   Waves of low pressure riding over a ridge over the eastern Atlantic and along the southern edge of the trough are bringing periods of unsettled, occassionaly wet weather.

The next chance of rain will be Tuesday afternoon and Evening.  This will be followed by a continued chill. The first day of Chol H Moed Pesach may see another chance of rain, and this could be followed mid-week by an unusual chill.

Regarding the weather of Pesach (Chol H Moed), there are no clear indications, except that the weather is more likely to be chilly than warm.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Heat Advisories)

Good Afternoon:

The warm and beautiful weather will become hot and uncomfortable weather on Friday.

Temperatures along the central and southern coasts and inland to the base of the central mountains will be unseasonably hot on Friday (30 to 33 C). There will also be elevated levels of dust throughout the country. The heat will continue on Shabbat and there will be moderate dust concentrations in Tel Aviv and heavy dust concentrations south of Jerusalem to Eilat.  Forecast temperatures for the central mountains show the upper 20s, but areas like Zikron Yaakov will also have heat advisories on Shabbat (34 C).

However, a storm approaching from the west will usher in chilly air late on Shabbat with a chance of showers.  The bulk of the storm will remain to the west until Sunday evening, when rain chances will grow.

The storm will bring mostly chilly weather rather than any appreciable rain.

A ridge will should build over western Europe late next week, while a trough digs down over the central and eastern Europe.  This means that springtime temperatures of this week will remain just a memory at least into the week of Peach vacation.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Spring Rebounds)

Good Evening:

Springtime temperatures will rebound over the next few days.  In fact, it might get a bit toasty by the end of the week.

But, just when you'll be tempted to put away all of the winter clothing, temperatures should come crashing down again and they may not warm up again (a bit) until just before Peach.

The very warm weather is courtesy of low pressure moving across the Mediterranean.  Southerly winds ahead of the storm should drag up some pretty warm temperatures.  But, as the system arrives late Friday, it should drag a cold front through the region as it moves by to our northeast.  The cold front should bring a period of rain.

There is still plenty of cold air to our north and another storm may keep things cool next week, until almost, if not, Pesach.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Winter Fights Back -- Harder)

Good Afternoon:

While it may not be today's snow in NY (unless you live on the higher elevations of the Golan), it will be quite chilly, and a showery cold rain will extenuate the chill.

The cold air is courtesy of a low pressure area moving across the Mediterranean near Cyprus. It will remain generally uncoupled from the northern Jet stream, where much colder air resides.  Still enough cold air will leak down to really chill things off -- especially for the first few days of spring!

Temperatures in the higher elevations will have single digit lows by Sunday morning, and a light snow is expected in the Golan.  There will also be strong winds with higher gusts late this afternoon and again late tomorrow afternoon as well.

Next week will see a warm up ahead of the next system.  However, this is not a Sharav (a low pressure area moving across the southern Mediterranean and then up the coast), but another more winter like system.  This one has the possibility of bringing a heavier rain about 8 to 10 days out.

Looking out towards two weeks: we don't see any sign of spring.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Almost Weather)

Good Afternoon:

Having just watched a Dr. Who entitled the "Almost People," I suppose it appropriate to entitle this blog the "Almost Weather."

The weather map shows a series of a almost storms, where the southern Jet stream almost couples with the northern Jet stream almost bringing us a winter storm.

Even those are just almost storms, they will bring some wild temperature swings our way.  It will become mild by Wednesday afternoon, but then cool off quite a bit on Thursday, with a chance of light rain.  It will warm up a bit on Friday, and then another almost storm may bring even cooler weather on Shabbat. If not, it will just remain on the chilly side.

But then the isobars will start to migrate to the north, meaning that warmer temperatures will be on their way.  However,  just when spring will almost be sprung,  another storm may almost bring us another bit of rain mid next week, as temperatures cool off again.

Actually, the weather next week is more likely to remain mild than cool, but the possibility of another bit of more winter like weather can't be ruled out.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Week's Coolness)

Good Afternoon:

There is a bit of a chill in the air, and this will remain with us for the next week. Of course, it's not really cold, just chilly.  If fact, it is never too cold (or snowy) or hot in Jerusalem (at least not for any length of time), and when it rains, it rains hard (but often not for too long).  Jerusalem is simply a city with ideal weather.

In about a week's time, we'll have to decide: to warm up a bit towards spring or take a detour towards a more wintry state.  The wintry state would be courtesy of a ridging area of high pressure coupled with a deepening trough.  On the other hand, winter may pass us by to the north and then we'll (probably) be headed (albeit slowly) towards spring (but by the calendar for sure).

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Out With the New and In With the Old)

Good Afternoon:

In the last few days I have noticed plenty of folks dressed for spring.  And, certainly, temperatures have been Springy.  On the other hand, there are still those who are dressed for winter.  Are the latter simply those of darker or even sinister complexion? Or, are they simply traditionalist folks, who swear that changes in the weather follow the Jewish holidays?  It doesn't really matter because after tonight they'll be realists.

I've got the doors open and sounds of birds singing passes on the wind lightly blowing through my office.  Nevertheless, its all about to change.

After some light dusty haze today, strong high and persistent high pressure over northern Europe will direct chilly winter air our way starting tonight.  It will arrive on the heels of low pressure in the eastern Mediterranean that will bring a general light to moderate rain throughout the country into Thursday afternoon.  Temperatures will fall to chilly levels, although not cold enough for any white stuff (except on the Hermon where there may be a light snow).

Showers may return on Shabbat and Sunday, and the high pressure area and general troughiness will persist for the next 10 to 14 days.  This means more winter like temperature than spring like temperatures at least until the week before Passover. In fact, about 10 days out may see another more significant rain storm.

Sometimes at this time of year temperatures can be quite hot.  This happens when strong low pressure over the desert of Saudia Arabia noses its way into the eastern Mediterranean.  This area of low pressure does not even feign to make an appearance in any of our forecasts, but in fact retreats southward as winter pushes away spring.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Winter Retreat)

Good Afternoon:

Certainly it won't feel like winter is retreating.  In fact, temperatures will fall off by some 15 C Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  The colder air will be accompanied by a period of rain over a large part of the country.  Rain amounts, though, are not expected to be heavy -- rather a light rain may continue for half a day or more.

Yet, a closer look at the weather map suggests that the northern Jet Stream is retreating to the north and our southern Jet Stream is weakening and less likely to couple with the northern Stream. Hence, the overall pattern is transitioning into spring, which is about right for the calendar date.

Temperatures should remain on the cool/chilly side for several days.  From next week onwards, we see temperatures moderating, but they will not even be close to this week's early warmth.  The reason for this is an areas of high pressure located far to our north, which will direct cold air southward (but not in the way that would lead to a storm spinning up over the eastern Mediterranean).

In fact, a few ensemble models "want" to bring a late season storm back our way mid to late next week.  But this is a only a small chance and obviously outside what might be expected of the last week of March.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Tease)

Good Evening:

The weather was a tad on the warm side today, and it will remain on the warm side until late Tuesday.

Then, the temperature will come crashing down.

The reason is the combination of a low pressure area approaching from the west with the development of high pressure over central Europe.  The area of high pressure will help to funnel cold air southward and will also maintain the low pressure over the eastern Mediterranean.

It may actually remain on the cool/cold side for about a week.  However, it is still unclear just how wet/rainy and/or cold it will be.  There is certainly enough cold air situated over Siberia, but we don't see a high likely of any strong coupling between it and the Mediterranean low pressure area.

The pattern of a more significant late storm is present, but that's not enough.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (It's Nice, But It Won't Stay Nice)

Good Afternoon:

The weather is certainly delightful, and it is not because it is snowing. In fact, it will be warming up another five or six degrees over the next few days.

While we blissfully bask in late winter warmth, a low pressure area will be moving across the Mediterranean.  And like a dark cloud on the horizon (actually, it is a bunch of dark clouds) can portend a "ill" tiding, the dark clouds of this storm will probably take the spring-like spring out of our steps (and mood, perhaps).

Yet, every storm has a silver lining and this one too just might.

As the storm arrives on Wednesday of next week, high pressure nosing its way across central Europe should rapidly amplify. As it ridges into northern Europe the southwest flow on the back side of this ridge will rapidly change direction and plunge southward, bringing with it winter-time cold and a shot of "winter" energy to the storm on our doorstep.

While this wintertime pulse could bring several days of rain,  there is a 15% chance that temperatures will drop cold enough to turn the rain to snow at the highest elevations either late in the week or very early the following week.

Our forecast has been on this topic for a while.  Perhaps the weather roulette wheel will come up a win.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Remarkable Storm?)

Good Afternoon:

The forecast is remarkably consistent.  It is remarkable in two ways: that it continues to indicate the potential for cold winter storm about 9 to 10 days out, and it also indicates that nothing is too certain.

For instance, the highest resolution forecast model, the GFS, consistently shows a ridge of warmer air building across Europe and eventually amplifying into far northern Europe. About a week from now a southern Jet Stream storm moves into the eastern Mediterranean.  The combination of the ridge and southern stream allows for a coupling of the two streams and winter time cold plunges southward by the end of the week.

When we see something like this, we look to the GFS ensemble for confirmation.  However, we see only hints of this storm in the ensemble, making me think that this is a relatively small scale feature that is best resolved by the GFS (but not the ensemble -- 13 km vs 50 km resolution).  We saw this in the Friday evening storm in January.  Normally, I would ignore such a small scale feature but the GFS refuses to drop it. True, it was originally forecast to arrive early next week, but for the last few days it has been present at the end of the week.

Until then, temperatures will be on the rise so that we will have a string of pleasant weather days.  The temperatures should rise until Shabbat, and then fluctuate at relatively warm weather until the arrival of the next system. We can tell that temperatures will dive back down to today's like chill, but how chilly is a matter of conjecture.

Perhaps we need to wait for the Purim story to be written again this year to know how our weather will play out next week.

Purim Samaech,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Pre-Purim Showers)

Good Evening:

The first time I remember it snowing every week was the winter of 1992/93, and then 1995/96.  I was in New York and Maryland, respectively.

If one has been following the New York weather this winter, one might have noted that it went from wet to very cold, and now to very cold and frequently snowy.  The (decadal) winter climate of the NY region and northeast has definitely changed, and one can see that in winter snow averages.

When I moved here, and to very recently, one would read that it doesn't snow in Jerusalem.  Yet, January 2000 saw a rather large snow, and it snowed moderate amounts in January 2002, large amounts in February 2003, moderate amounts in 2004 and 2006, and larger amounts in January/February 2008. It also snowed small amounts in 2011 and 2012, and we all remember the large snows of 2012, 2013, and 2015.

In contrast, the decade of the 1990s saw heavy snow only in January/February 1992 and January/March of 1998.  So, snow has been occurring more frequently here as well, and -- note -- the March snow of 1998 came on the 18th of the month.

For the record, we had 66 cm in four different snow episodes here in Efrat (15 cm on 7th/9th of January), 30 cm 19th of February, and 6 cm on the night of the 20th.  In fact, we've had 4 years of measurable snow in a row.

So, where does this discussion fit in to our weather?  We're expecting some light rain tonight (Tuesday night) from Beer-Sheva to the north, and then a warming trend until Shabbat Eve.

Beyond the 7th of March, we see a lot of confusion in the weather forecast.  By confusion, I mean that the different global ensemble members show large variability.  This could be to the changing of the seasons or possibly to the high time variability of the weather upstream in the Atlantic ocean. About a week ago, we saw the possibility of snow early next week, but the forecast changed to indicate instability(potential storminess) in the wave pattern from the 11th of the month onwards.  While nothing is clear, other than the possibility of rain, there are some indications that wet snow is possible as well.

As for the weather from the 7th to the 11th (Sunday to Wednesday next week), there is still a 50% chance that the warm temperatures will continue until then.

When I know more, I'll pass it on.

Purim Samaech,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Purim Forecast Spiel)

Good Evening (or Good Morning):

It is hard to describe the weather when it seems to be so undecided.  The weather maps are full of wavy patterns, and there is a large divergence among ensemble members.

It reminds me of the decision Queen Ester had to make when Mordechai tells her: "Do not imagine that you will be able to escape in the King's palace any more than the rest of the Jews.  For if you persist in keeping silent at a time like this, relief and deliverance will come to the Jews from some other place."  Was she to go to the King -- or not?

Likewise, our atmosphere seems to be unable to decide between winter, spring, or summer.   Where will deliverance come from for the weather forecaster (like myself) who has to convey weather that might be, could be, or may never be.

For instance, there is a chance of scattered showers Tuesday night and Wednesday as temperatures remain on the cool side.  That is, a shower might be here or there, but not necessarily anywhere.

Temperatures will then warm up through Shabbat, but then low pressure moving across the Mediterranean may make enough progress eastward to put an end to our warm days.  Yet, there is a 50/50 chance that our string of nice days will continue a few days more before enough moisture moves into to turn our sunny skies to rainy skies.

Looking almost two weeks ahead and we see the possibility that high pressure will nose its way further eastward as low pressure in the southern Jet stream seeks to couple to the northern Jet stream. It may all be just a spiel, but it might also be wet, cold, and white.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Purim Swings)

Good Evening:

Temperatures are on a downward trend as a winds turn more north of westerly.

However, the approaching area of low pressure is rather weak and may bring only light showers, if at that.

As Purim arrives, temperatures will start to rise and we could be in for some March madness (relatively warm or even hot temperatures) by mid-next week.  Right now, there is a 50/50 chance that temperatures will warm to unusually warm temperatures for March from Monday into Wednesday of next week.

The "snow chances" we spoke about for early next week have receded.  The eastward influence of the  ridge over the eastern Atlantic is now somewhat limited in our forecasts and there is also a lack of phasing between the developing trough in the southern stream trough and the northern Jet stream (where the colder air resides).

There is still a chance that mid-march will turn chilly again. but -- for the moment at least -- we see nothing more than the possibility of wet snow.

Remember, spring is around the corner and winter may soon be past.

Barry Lynn