Thursday, December 31, 2015

Weather It Is (Dangerous Storm Arrives)

Good Evening:

The storm is upon us and very heavy rain in on our door step.

In the next several hours there is a high probability of more than 10 mm per 3 hours in a broad area from the coastal plain to the central (and northern mountains).  There will be locally heavier rain, and thunder and lightning.

Total rain amounts will be between 50 to 100 mm in the lowlands, central mountains, and mountains of the north, with 25 to 50 mm in the immediate vicinity of the Kinneret.

Winds will become dangerously strong  (gale force) tonight in the heavy rain, and strong winds with higher gusts will persist tomorrow.

As temperatures cool tonight, and strong storms develop, expect rain mixed with ice pellets.  A coating of snow is possible in the higher elevations tomorrow afternoon, especially in Gush Etzion, Sefad, and other high elevations, with more significant snow amounts in the Golan.

Shabbat is shaping up as a big question mark.  An reinforcing push of cold air will arrive at upper levels.  It may arrive before the colder air at lower levels erodes away -- and hence there is another chance of snow, with rain elsewhere.

With all this cold air coming in, I would be tempted to predict more snow than the models suggest. But the models are predicting that temperatures will be above freezing except in the very highest elevations.  Model forecasts can be wrong, but it would be a surprise if snow accumulates in the central areas more than predicted.

Heavy dust in the south.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Dangerous Winter Storm)

Good Afternoon:

A dangerous winter storm is upon us.

Here are the highlights.

Wind: Strong winds today - gale winds or possibly storm force winds Thursday night into Friday evening.

Rain: Heavy rain beginning from mid-evening (along the coast) to mid-night (Jerusalem).  Over about two days, 50 to 100 mm of rain will fall in the coastal plain eastward to the Jerusalem area and southward to Beer-Sheva. Rain rates tonight could be 10 to 25 mm per three hours, with locally higher amounts.

Visibility: The rain tonight will be especially strong and blowing rain in strong winds will make for very poor visibility.

Snow: Tonight in the Golan.  Snow tomorrow in Safed (several centimetres).  Snow and graupel will mix with the rain in the area of Gush Etzion tonight and become more likely Friday afternoon and evening.  Rain and ice pellets (graupel) in the Jerusalem area tonight and rain/snow becoming mostly wet snow late afternoon and evening.  There may be a light accumulation in Jerusalem on colder surfaces and a few centimeters of snow in Gush Etzion Friday afternoon and evening.


Dust: Dust storm in the south.

General Synopsis:

A strong winter storm will approach our area today, and last into Sunday morning. While temperatures are cold enough at 850 mb and 700 mb for snow late Thursday night (and especially Friday afternoon/evening), 500 mb temperatures are only marginal for strong convective storms during this period.  Moreover, while temperatures are below freezing at 850 mb, they are not as cold as in last February's storm (where they were about 1.5 degrees colder at 850/700 mb and temperatures at 500 mb were 7 degrees Celsius colder.   Hence, surface temperatures will most likely remain above freezing except at the highest elevations.

A reinforcing shot of cold air will arrive at upper levels Shabbat Afternoon/evening.  This will be a few degrees colder than in the first part of our storm, and will have to be watched closely.

Otherwise, we've entered a significantly wetter pattern.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Weather It Is (Winter Weather)

Good Afternoon:

I am bit worn out from following this storm.  Here are the highlights.

Through Saturday 2:00 A.M

Rain Amounts:  25 -- 50 mm across the hills east of the coastal plain; 10 to 25 mm in the coastal cities themselves.   Central Mountain: general 25 -- 50 mm, with > 50 mm in the area from Jerusalem south along the mountain spine.  Light rain in the Arava, but between 10 to 25 mm in the area of Beer-Sheva. Northern Mountains and Golan: 50 to 100 mm, with > 100 mm on the Golan.

Snow Amounts: 10 to 25 cm on the Golan and far northern mountains;  50 -- 100 cm on Har Hermon.

Winds:  Thursday > 50 km/h, and Friday > 60 km/h, with higher gusts.

Regarding the possibility of snow in Jerusalem. The first chance will be with the onset of the heaviest precipitation after midnight, Thursday night.  Temperatures at 850 mb will be falling below 0 and below minus 10 Celsius at 700 mb.  They will be close to minus 25 Celsius at 500 mb.  The next chance will be in the late afternoon and evening as temperatures at 850 mb and 700 mb drop to close to minus 3 C and minus 13 Celsius at 700 mb.

However, because the 500 mb temperatures will not be exceptionally cold, the precipitation will be mostly stratiform or orographic-convective, meaning that precipitation rates will not be overly high (except, perhaps, Thursday night when the cold air makes its entrance).  This means that snow amounts will not accumulate very quickly, and are more likely in areas higher than Jerusalem (like Gush Etzion). In fact, a first look at high resolution forecast surface temperatures in Jerusalem suggests that snow will not accumulate in Jerusalem, until possibly Erev Shabbat.

Lastly, we don't usually see a storm that is so cold at the 850 mb and 700 mb, but not at 500 mb.  Perhaps we're seeing the result of a lack of winter elsewhere, where the cold air has built up at the poles and is now able to head far south without strong upper level support (and an even stronger and prolonged ridge over Europe).

Looking further ahead: Motzei Shabbat appears to bring another 500 mb cold trough, but temperatures will start warming at middle and lower levels, so rain is more likely than wet snow (or with a possible mix).  The chances for snow are higher in the north.

There is still plenty of cold air to our north, and this will help to create a stormy weather pattern for the following week, if not more.

Barry Lynn
P.S. A more exact snowfall forecast will be made on Thursday, when our highest resolution forecast will extend until mid-day Friday.




Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Weather It Is (Getting Closer)

Good Afternoon:

Those of us who are optimists might be hoping that the probability of snow will increase to near 100% by Thursday night/Friday.  However, there are probably those (also optimists) hoping the opposite.

What we see is that a ridge of high pressure will ride up into northern Europe; conversely, a sharp trough will develop on its eastern flank, and this means that the gates of winter will open as far south as the eastern Mediterranean.

Concurrently, a storm moving across the southern jet stream along the Mediterranean sea will couple link up with the source of cold air creating the necessary dynamical and isentropic lifting needed to produce a bout of rain and possibly snow.

The coldest temperatures should arrive late Friday and Friday night, when temperatures at 850 mb will fall a degree or so below freezing.  We expect the cold lower level temperatures to persist until Saturday (Shabbat afternoon).  There is a 15% chance that temperatures will return to below freezing levels very early in the week.

At 700 and 500 mb, some of the ensemble members show that temperatures are forecast to be just barely cold enough for good snow development, while a large number of ensemble members do not. This is a bit of an unusual situation. Again, there is 15% chance of strong forcing arriving early next week.

Looking at the forecast precipitation amounts, we see a lot of variability.  This means that we're still not settled on the amount of cold aloft.  Without it, there will be rain, but much less likelihood of heavy rain/accumulating snow (now, about 30%).

Strong, possibly damaging, winds are forecast from Thursday afternoon into Friday night.

Today a Red Sea Trough will pass by to our southeast, bringing some rain to the southern Arava. Tonight our cold weather system will approach and bring a broad area of rain from Netanya south to Ashkelon and east through Efrat to the Dead Sea Basin. Five to 10 mm of rain are expected.

The rain should return towards evening and through Thursday night we expect 25 to 50 mm in an area focused from Ashkelon eastward through Jerusalem/Hebron into the Dead Sea Basin.

The forecast for Friday's possible snow event remains unclear.  We'll be wise to wait until we see actual snow/rain amounts from our high resolution forecasts.

Otherwise, snow is expected in the Hermon, beginning tomorrow (Wednesday). Moreover, we look to be entering a wet pattern next week.  The very cold air is forecast to be lurking just to our north and  there is an active southern jet stream. We e still have the possibility of a cold-storm to follow this week's storm arly next.

Barry Lynn


Monday, December 28, 2015

Weather It Is (Wind/Cold/Rain/Snow?)

Good Afternoon:

We've been talking about the weather for the last week or so, hinting at what might be, and now the hint has become more than a hint.  It's 12 Celsius, 41% humidity, and the winds are gusting to 35 km/h.  It feels like winter and strangely the weather map agrees.

We've been discussing a number of global atmospheric indices that have a possible influence on our weather.  Here's another (The East Pacific Oscillation -- thank you to Jonathan Hoffman for pointing this one out).

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/epo-what-you-need-to-know/43796

This index is forecast to go negative about the same time our next storm should arrive.  This index is associated with greater waviness in the atmospheric circulation pattern, and indeed it seems to be having an effect (perhaps with other global indices like the North Atlantic Oscillation which is suppose to return to positive in a few days as well) The interesting thing about our next storm -- or rather the forecasts concerning our next storm -- is that the latest 00 GMT Global Forecast Ensemble now shows much more variability (on the cold side) than before.  Along with the cold come several very cold ensemble members that drop down to close to -30 Celcius at 500 mb.  Combined with a 60% chance that temperatures at 850 mb will fall below freezing (and several predicting -2 to -3 C), we're getting indications that Friday and Shabbat could be snowy in the  upper elevations.

To put a number on it: the probability is now 25%, with a near 100% chance of measurable rain (although the ensembles are not indicating more than 50 mm yet, on average).

Moreover, with the cold should come very strong winds, even damaging winds.

It's actually warming a bit at 850 mb until the end of the day, but temperatures will head down thereafter until early next week.

Barry Lynn

P.S: It is necessary to consider that our weather exists within the global circulation patterns and hence these indices may be in part a reflection of our weather, rather than the cause. On the other hand, it necessary to send a block (ridge) northward into Europe  to allow cold air to dive southward and for a coupling of a southern stream storm with the northern stream Jet and strong baroclinic zone.

P.P.S: From http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap12/nao.html:  On days when the NAO Index is high, there are strong winds, bringing mild and wet conditions over western Europe. This is usually associated with colder weather here, as the block extends further north than usual.

P.P.P.S. Jonathan created composite maps of past snowstorms of the 500 mb height and height anomalies.




Saturday, December 26, 2015

Weather Is (Quite A Yarn)

Good Evening:

It's quite easy to spin a really good yarn (story) out of model uncertainty.  One of my correspondents has described one of forecasts he saw as a stark reminder of the December 2013 snow storm.  Another has pointed out that the global models are all showing a big (winter) change next week.

Yesterday's GFS brought a prolonged period of cold and snow several days out.  However, the GFS ensemble shows about a 20% chance of a big rain event, with between a 10 or 20% chance of snow in the higher elevations, depending on which ensemble run you look at.

So, it's potentially very big, but it's also (more) potentially just ho-hum.

In the meantime, it should be mild through Monday before temperatures drop off substantially on Tuesday into Wednesday.  Rain is possible on Friday and if we go by the 00 GMT GFS snow will also arrive on Friday.  However, I wouldn't take down the snow boots because the latest 6 GMT update shows nothing. Moreover, the GFS ensemble shows heavier rain early the following week, not this week.

What does it mean? It means that the winter signal is not at well resolved by the models.

One further note: remember the forecast change in the Atlantic Oscillation? It was suppose to turn negative in early January.  Well, it keeps flipping from forecast to forecast. This means that we really don't know what the weather is going to be beyond the next few days as the atmospheric circulations that "count" are not well resolved or predicted.  It may not be satisfying, but it is suspenseful.

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Weather It Is (Important Changes A Foot)

Good Evening:

The weather continues to be cold -- although not the "bone-chilling" cold I grew up with.  Still, it's colder than where I grew up with and that is pretty amazing for December.

It's even more interesting because the Arctic Oscillation (AO)  has been in its positive phase, meaning middle latitudes are generally warmer than on average.

Please see here for a nice summary:
 https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/arctic-meteorology/weather_climate_patterns.html

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) NAO has been in its negative phase.

Please see here for a nice summary.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learn-about-the-weather/north-atlantic-oscillation

My supposition is that the strong El-Nino is helping to build a trough in our region, leading to the cooler than normal weather.

The Arctic Oscillation should go negative while the North Atlantic Oscillation should go back positive for the next few weeks.

(See here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learn-about-the-weather/north-atlantic-oscillation)

A positive NAO brings more storms across the Atlantic, while the negative AO tends to bring colder weather southward from the poles.  The two together may help us build a ridge over central Europe and a trough in the eastern Mediterranean.  It also presents the possibility for storms in the southern Jet Stream to couple with the northern Jet Stream, which we need for the real-cold and wet to arrive here.

The result should be colder weather as we approach the new year. Hence, there is a 50% chance of rain and a 20% of our first snow.

In the meantime,  Thursday will see a 20% chance of a weak storm transversing our area and then several days of slightly warmer weather before the cool down as we approach next  year.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, December 20, 2015

Weather It Is (Summary)

Good Evening:

Not much going on, and for a while there won't be much going on.

We see that the 25th of December may bring a small weather disturbance, but the probability is just 25%.

The end of the month is showing the potential for change. The rather zonal flow may amplify with a large ridge building into northern Europe.  This will help to direct colder air far south.

At the moment, though, we don't see any storm in the southern Jet Stream to couple with this developing system -- or more accurately: the probability is about 15%.

We're still a lot cooler than the folks in the eastern US.  They have southerly winds rotating around a ridge to their east, while we have generally northerly winds around a ridge/trough couplet that stretches west to east across the Mediterranean.

We'll have to wait and see how the chances for a significant storm develop over the next several days. However, an Accu-Weather meteorologist has noted that the CFS is indicating that the second week of January may bring a more significant change in the global circulation pattern, which would be more like we had last winter than up to now.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Weather It Is (Small Scale)

Good Morning:

The temperatures in Israel remain on the chilly side, and are actually colder than those in many cities of the eastern US.   In that part of the world, a ridge of warm temperatures maintains a more southwesterly flow of warm air that had led to almost "balmy" temperatures.  Flowers are blooming and dogs are shedding out of season -- not to mention other animals that don't know whether to burrow  away or continue feasting on the usual availability of nuts, etc.

Here, we're under the influence of a weak trough of low pressure.  This means that, periodically, areas of low pressure moving through the southern Jet Stream bring localised rain.  Occasionally, these weak storms tap some of the winter time cold over eastern Europe.   Actually, the next localised rain event is expected on Thursday and will be focused on the area between Ashkelon and Tel-Aviv, where around 10 mm of rain is expected. Lighter rain is expected to eventually reach the area of the center mountains.

Last year, there was a strong ridge of high pressure over western Europe.  The result was a periodic phasing of the northern and southern Jet Streams, and strong, unusually cold (and even snowy) storms.
This year, there is a very strong northern Jet that traverses a large area from the eastern Atlantic ocean all the way across Europe into Siberia.  This means that the really cold air remains "trapped" far to our north.  If not for the fact that the area of warmth (desert low) usually located over Saudia Arabia is shifted far to our east, we too would be more on the balmy side of temperatures.  So, ironically, in a season of missed opportunities and unprecedented warmth, we're in the midst of a persistently cold winter.

Still, there is a 15 chance that the end of the year will end on the very rainy side.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, December 10, 2015

Weather It Is (Winter Rains Arriving)

Good Afternoon:

A strong low pressure system will arrive on Shabbat and last into Monday.  Rain associated with this system will overspread the western coastal areas sometime Saturday morning and arrive in the mid to late afternoon in the central mountains and eastern Valleys.

This looks to be a fairly widespread rain event, and it will be cold enough for accumulating snow on the Hermon.

There will be some very strong convective cells just off-shore, so there is the potential that the coastal cities will get brushed with heavy rain (we'll try to look into this more on Erev Shabbat).

Rain Motzei Shabbat/Saturday night (> 10 mm/3-hr) will bring the potential for flooding in the eastern Valleys, as well as areas of the Arava and possibly even down to Eilat.

The weather has been cool in the mornings (about 5 Celsius here in Efrat) and we don't see a warm up in sight.  In fact, the end of next week or early next week may see a more significant winter storm, both in terms of cold and rain amounts.  One global ensemble member is also indicating very strong winds.

We'll see how that goes, but first this "weekend's" rains.

Chanukah Samaech,

Barry Lynn


Tuesday, December 8, 2015

Weather It Is (A Winter Rain)

Good Evening:

It certainly is a "Winter Rain" in a "Deep and Dark December."

A strong area of low pressure will make its approach on Wednesday.

While the heavy rain associated with this system will hold off until Friday night, the cold associated with it will not. Temperatures will be falling off into the low single digits at 850 mb, and to about -7 C at 700 mb.  Combined with a strong upper level trough, snow should fall on the Hermon and accumulate.

Elsewhere, expect some hail/graupel at times but no accumulation of snow outside of the Hermon.

The rain should last in Sunday and the cold will last into mid-next week.

When we look beyond mid-next week, we see some uncertainty. Most likely there will be a continued chill, but there are equal (20% chances) it will warm up a bit.

Barry Lynn

Saturday, December 5, 2015

Weather It Is (Close to Freezing or Below)

Good Evening:

Unusually cold weather for early December.

Tonight will see temperatures in Gush Etzion and other high elevations in the north reach the freezing mark.  Moreover, the winds will remain light to moderate, leading to wind chills below freezing.

Fog will also be possible tomorrow evening as well. Otherwise, it will be dry.

Looking forward: the mid-week will see a small warm up, but then temperatures will trend downwards until early next week.

The following week looks to continue to be dry, but the end of the week could turn sharply colder.  At least one or two of our ensemble members are indicating a heavy precipitation event.

Happy Chanukah.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, December 3, 2015

Weather It Is (Cold Weather Makes an Appearance)

Good Afternoon:

There is a 30% chance that temperatures will fall below freezing at the higher elevations on Shabbat/Motzei Shabbat.

However, there is only a very small chance of the cold air at 850 mb being in sync with colder air aloft, so we're not expecting anything dramatic, as we'll be on the western side of the trough.

Moreover, temperatures will be on an upward climb soon after until mid next week, when a cold front will arrive and drop us back to more seasonable cold.

The end of next week into the following week shows the potential for a heavier rain storm with unseasonable cold, but this is far from certain.

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Weather It Is (A Dramatic Entrance)

Good Afternoon:

Today's rain is a fond reminder of the rains I remember growing up (in the eastern US).  We've had about 10 mm of rain (here in Efrat) since last night.  Last year, we also had a number of small rain events before January brought its unusual cold.

A weak storm will approach on Wednesday and then the bottom will fall out on the temperature scale.

We already mentioned that this El-Nino year is bringing instability to the global forecast pattern (as seen in some members of the global ensemble).  What do we mean by this? It means that the surface energy flux (associated with the warm Pacific waters) is creating strong convection that is feeding upscale into the global circulation pattern.  Because these convective systems are hard to predict, the ensemble forecast shows a lot of dispersion (as a realistic reflection of the "unknown" influences of this convection).

Well, one of those members has "decided" to "express" itself in a big way and right now it's dragging almost 60% of the global ensemble members with it -- to possibly the coldest weather this early in the winter season in years.

The chill should begin to move in after the storm on Thursday  (a light rain event) and then bone-chilling cold should arrive Erev Shabat and continue its grip into Sunday morning.

This is a rapidly evolving system and at the moment there is a greater than 50% chance that there will be snow showers (some of them briefly heavy) at the higher elevations.  However, at 700 mb and especially at 500 mb the upper level trough still remains ill-defined, so we wouldn't expect any more than a "wipe-away" accumulation (if that).

Yet, we expect this to change as "baroclinic" (temperature) feedbacks between the developing surface/lower atmospheric become better resolved by the ensemble.  When it does, we'll be able to tell whether this will be a showery or more significant rain/snow event.

We're just a few days away -- so there isn't much time for the circulation pattern to sort itself out -- but it will. You can count on it.

The unusually cold weather should be followed by normal winter cold next week.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, November 29, 2015

Weather It Is (Last Warm Day)

Good Evening:

Today was the last of the "warm-days."

A front will approach tomorrow (Monday) as a storm develops south of Cyprus.

Rain associated with this storm will overspread the coastal areas Monday afternoon and arrive in the Jerusalem area Monday evening.

The rain will last into mid-day, but the heaviest rain will be Monday night.  Rain will also persist along the coast until the evening hours.

Rain amounts are expected to generally be between 10 and 25 mm over the extended rainy period.

The cold weather stays with us a few days and then the forecast becomes uncertain.  Except, we can say that fall is gone and winter cold has arrived.


Barry Lynn

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Weather Is Is (A Red Sky...)

Good Afternoon:

"Red sky at night, sailors' delight.
Red sky at morning, sailors take warning."

This early morning I saw a beautiful red-orange sky and immediately thought of the rhyme above.  Usually, we don't have a red sky ahead of our low pressure systems, as the moisture flow is usually quite small (there's no large ocean, but the continent of Africa immediately to our southwest).  However, this year seems to be a bit different -- perhaps the very strong El-Nino has perturbed the atmosphere -- and we're seeing moisture arriving all the way from the Atlantic Ocean.  I've even seen the possibility of some unusually cold air early in December in our long range ensembles.

I also saw a "Sun Dog" (sunlight refracting off ice particles) this afternoon, when I exited Rami-Levy.

Yes, I went to Rami-Levy -- sort of on a whim.  However, I found myself projecting into the future -- meaning that I was thinking that I would enjoy returning safely from my shopping outing.

Of course, we know that not everyone has and efforts are being made to improve safety.  It's obvious that Rami-Levy is a very well run store and that the Arab (Palestinians) who work there take pride in their work.  Yet, there is an obviously large part of the Palestinian population that wants nothing to do with us or the coexistence that exists at places like these. In fact, it should also be clear that the Palestinian government (leadership) does not want these opportunities for coexistence to continue as they themselves have instigated and encouraged the violence, as well as encouraging the European governments and others to boycott Israel businesses over the green-line (those that actually employ in good conditions thousands of Palestinians -- their own people!).  Speaking as a scientist, where "A" leads to "B", and "A + B" just might equal "C," it is time to get rid of these folks -- just like Mr. Arafat himself was marginalised.  After all you can't make peace with someone or someones whose idea of coexistence is like one hand clapping.

Getting back to our weather: one can see that we're setting up a moisture source out ahead of the approaching storm. As I mentioned, it looks like its source is the Atlantic Ocean.  The storm is causing very strong convection over southern Italy and the winds around this storm are bringing gusts even here.

Here's a very nice satellite picture from AccuWeather:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/middle-east/satellite

As this storm approaches on Sunday, rain will develop generally across the area and the global ensembles suggest that it should rain Monday and Tuesday, and that there is a 50% chance that it will get downright cold and continue raining into late next week.

So, for those who were threatening to pull out the spring clothes (i.e., some who even gave me a personal complaint), winter is coming, and I don't see any warm weather for at least the next two weeks.

It's December and the weather agrees.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, November 22, 2015

Weather It Is (Open Road=Open Door)

Good Evening:

The weather is going to meander for the next several days, a bit cooler tomorrow, and then a bit warmer over the days that follow.

We see with high certainty that a storm will arrive next Sunday and bring a high chance of rain.  However, beyond Sunday there is great uncertainty in what will follow. There are equal chances the weather will remain cool, turn quite cold (with the possibility of wet snow a remote probability), and it might even warm up bringing late fall warmth.

Ironically, I can tell you with greater certainty that we'll continue with a high probability of more stabbings (right down the road from my home -- perhaps closer), and a low probability, but an eventual certainty of at least one more shooting attack.

Why?  There are various reasons, but here are the most obvious: i) an open road is like an open door (to our Palestinian attackers).  They must really be laughing at us.  "Oh, those Jews are so stupid!  They don't even make us walk!"  ii) Our defense minister, Mr. Yaalon, views us folks as commodities to be traded against the Palestinian Gross Domestic Product.  Basically, he's afraid that closing their access to the roads will create further problems (unrest) down the line.  Yet, he doesn't he know that there will be unrest -- there might even be a rebellion against the "instigators"  (it could happen; in fact, the same people he thinks would prefer to work might even do this).

In any case, better to deal with unrest over there instead of in our emergency rooms. 

We're dying right now while he pontificates!

I am really afraid that it will take an even larger and more murderous attack before he takes serious action to protect us.  I challenge him to be different; otherwise, I am going to start thinking of him as: Ehud -- bomb those empty buildings Barak.

We need him to act now: close the door -- close the roads and seal off their towns (wherever necessary), and let us live in our land.

Right now, I see the probability of someone I know (or even myself) dying higher than the probability that it will turn warm next week.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Weather It Is (Close the Roads! Fire Mr. Kerry!)

Good Evening:

The weather is a natural phenomena. Sometimes it can be quite pleasant and sometimes it can be quite unpleasant, and even dangerous.  There is not much to do except to seek shelter if the weather gets really bad.

Our neighbors, the Palestinians are not a natural phenomena.  This means that something can be done to make it more difficult to murder us.  It was done during "Operation Defensive Shield" and it could be done now: close the damn roads!

True, there will be a number of Palestinians who will be unable to shop and work where they are accustomed to doing so, but this is a consequence of their accepting within their society murderers, and not one or two, but many.  True, the majority may now become disgruntled and even angry that they cannot work or travel, but this is the way wars usually work -- except often much worse.

As for the idea that if they're not busy working, they will join the war against us, let them do so from afar and not behind us, or as they drive by, or from the front when they crash into us, or at our bus stops, schools, and synagogues.  Don't make it easy!

Also, what incentive do they (the Palestinians) have to do something to stop their friends and relatives from murdering us?  They don't: they get the twin benefit of work and satisfying their so-called "Mitzva" to slaughter us. 

Where is our government?  They should protect us, not the Palestinians.

As for "our" Secretary of State -- John Kerry -- he should be fired forthwith. To be a qualified and effective Secretary of State one must understand both your friends and enemies.  Here's what he said (excerpted) just the other day while visiting France:

“There’s something different about what happened from Charlie Hebdo, and I think everybody would feel that,”Kerry said. “There was a sort of particularized focus and perhaps even a legitimacy in terms of — not a legitimacy, but a rationale that you could attach yourself to somehow and say, ‘Okay, they’re really angry because of this and that,’” he continued. 

--> In these few sentences: he justifies the murder of innocents.  He continues:

“This Friday was absolutely indiscriminate. It wasn’t to aggrieve one particular sense of wrong. It was to terrorize people. It was to attack everything that we do stand for. That’s not an exaggeration.”

--> Here, he completely misses the point:  their goal is not to terrorize people, but to murder as many people as possible (and they did it); their goals are world domination of the Islamic religion and the death of our civilization.

Most of my time is spent predicting the weather as well partaking in research in the atmospheric sciences.   I am not qualified to be a "politician" or as a national leader.  However, I can tell you that there is a fundamental difference between being reactive and proactive.  Our leaders are reactive rather than proactive -- whether out of temporary expedience (our own) or because they do not fathom nor understand the depth of the evil we face (the Obama Administration). I can and I guess you also can, and I wish for new leadership!

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Weather It Is (A Look Back/Forward)

Good Evening:

Yesterday the wife says: "you always make it rain when the kids go to school and when they come home."  Today she says:  "why's the heat on?  Where's the rain, where's the snow?"

Being in favor of peaceful relations between the fair and not so fair sex, I didn't mention that I did exactly what she asked: it rained during the school hours and it didn't rain very much.

There's the rub.  Complaints are filing in from all corners.  "I hope you won't mind a bit of criticism, but I was prepared for a downpour," was just one example.

Yet, such criticism would be misplaced.  Every day (four times a day) during the rainy season we run a 5 member, high resolution ensemble.  Ideally, we would run a few more forecasts to "round-out" our ensemble, but this is what we can do on our current computer system.  (Even so, it's a lot better than what's available elsewhere).

In any case, yesterday was a very convective situation and the various members of the ensemble had a disagreement.  A large majority said that it would great more than 10 mm, while a majority said that it would rain more than 25 mm in 3 hours, both along the coast and in the Jerusalem area. Given the relative high probability of heavy rain, it was necessary to take precautionary actions.  However, there was at least one or two forecasts that said: "it's going to rain, but not that much."  Sometimes the minority is correct, and yesterday was one of those days.

Our goal is to be right more often than wrong when then majority says rain (lots of it), and so far we're doing better than even.  While this might not matter much to you (the layman/women), it is the best approach for weather forecasting and the most accurate over the long term.

Regarding our upcoming weather: it will stay cool for the next few days and then warm up quite nicely.

You probably noticed how green the landscape is.  We had some early season rain this year and combined with the occasional  warm day, we've managed to make things look more like spring then fall/winter.  In fact, next week's warmth will only encourage some late season plant growth.

However, all is not as it will appear. The end of the month will bring much colder weather.

While it's not clear whether this will be a rainy start to more winter like weather or not, there is a 10% chance that the first of the month will bring some wet snow to the higher elevations.  (This mean that it probably, probably won't, but it might).

Barry Lynn


Monday, November 16, 2015

Weather It Is (Greater Certainty)

Good Morning:

The Global Forecast Systems model (GFS) and the Global Forecast Ensemble Systems model (GEFS) continue to point towards a very convective rain event.

Currently, our WRF High Resolution Ensemble (WheHRE) continues to point to three rain events of interest today.  The first is down near Eilat this afternoon, where there is a high certainty of rain, with a low probability of greater than 10 mm in 3 hours.  The second is in the Jerusalem area, where there is a low probability of rain this afternoon. However, the maximum possible rain amount (20%) is just greater than 10 mm in three hours.

As the weather system transitions from a Red Sea Trough later this afternoon into a strong fall-like weather system off our sea-coast, low pressure will deepen and rain will develop.  Rain amounts are forecast to be quite heavy, with a very high probability of greater than 10 mm per three hours in the area of Ashkehlon/Ashdod and Tel-Aviv South (about 70%), with even higher probabilities of heavy rain in Ashkelon as the night progresses.  There are equal chances (about 60%) of greater than 25 mm of rain in three hours late tonight in both southern Tel-Aviv and Ashkelon (about 60%), but the focus is on the Ashkelon area.

As we progress towards morning, the area of heaviest rain will progress eastward to between Efrat and Beer-Sheva, with a good possibility of flooding of streams and rivers developing in this area as well as from Jerusalem southward in the Dead Sea Basin.

More rain is forecast for tomorrow, and the next potential for rain is late next week.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, November 15, 2015

Weather It Is (Uncertainty)

Good Evening:

We're very certain that a "Red-Sea Trough" will affect our weather through tomorrow.  It will bring dust and tropical showers.  It will then transition into low pressure centered to our west Monday night and this center of low pressure will deepen as very cold air moves in aloft at 700 and 500 mb.

Right now, our highest resolution forecasts models keep most of the rain tomorrow over the south and in Jordan.  However, the GFS precipitation (which is based on a cumulus parameterisation) forecast raises the possibility of rain even tonight and tomorrow in the eastern-center of the country, including Jerusalem.  This is also shown by our 12 km WRF.  Amounts are possibly 5 to 10 mm per six hours, and possibly 10 to 15 mm per 6 hours tomorrow afternoon. Our ensemble maximum forecast maps shows 5 to 10 mm south of the Dead Sea Basin and about 5 mm in the Jerusalem area.

As low pressure deepens and cold air moves in aloft Monday night into Tuesday our high resolution model is showing very heavy rain along the coast, and with the unusually cold temperatures this rain could be extremely heavy.  The high resolution models show the rain staying mostly along the coast, but the GFS (again) shows rain moving inland on Tuesday.

So, the situation remains uncertain, but we need to keep in mind that we're going to be affected by a very strong late fall weather system.

Looking further in ahead: the rest of the week stays cool with a chance of showers, before a brief warming before next weeks disturbance heads our way.

Barry Lynn

Saturday, November 14, 2015

Weather It Is (Dust Alert)

Good Evening:

With the approaching storm, dust will be overspreading the area from the south and arrive in the center/Jerusalem area in mid to late afternoon,  and the north in the evening.

The dust will remain with us until late Monday.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (The End of...)

Good Evening:

Is it the end of the world as we knew it?  Has it not been obvious that ISIS/DASH mean what they say and do what they mean?  Has it not been obvious that if they are not stopped at the source then they will metasize like a cancer?  Isn't it obvious that no weapon and no number of deaths is too small for them? They are a much bigger version of Al Quada and (if even possible) of greater evil.

Yet, what are the Europeans concerned about?  Labelling the Jews.  Thank God we have our own country to fight back against the menace of anti-semitism and against our enemies.  Just remember: the Europeans and then the United States did nothing until it was almost too late to stop Hitler, but with the weapons of today, it takes only one to produce devastating impacts.

Anyway, one would never know from today's weather the horrors of the world (nor even yesterday's murder of a  father and son on their way to Sheva Brachot by some of our neighbors who can't seem to stop themselves from murder).

However, while tomorrow will be a beautiful day weather wise, heavy rain will probably move across the south on Monday and then across all of the country on Tuesday and Wednesday.

A Red Sea trough/low pressure area will tap moisture over the Red and Arabian Sea and bring the rain on Monday to the south. Tropical thunderstorms are likely.  Then, unusually cold air will move in to the area late Monday into Tuesday and ring out the air of moisture in strong rain storms, including thunderstorms.

The inclement weather will probably continue into Wednesday and cold temperatures will be with us through the end of the week.

Looking further ahead shows the possibility of even colder weather, but it might also warm up a bit.  So, there is not much to say but to keep your winter clothes and rain gear handy.

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Weather It Is (It looks wintry, but...)

Good Afternoon:

It is a cool 15 Celsius with a stiff wind, making it feel a degree cooler.

We're in a sort of strange situation.  We have cool fall weather interacting with a moisture source from the Arabian Sea (thanks to a very strong El-Nino).  In fact, this El-Nino has led to the formation of two tropical storms that have hit (unprecendently) Yemen.  Usually, our moisture source is from the Mediterranean (and infrequently at this time of year -- with the exception of an occasional Red Sea Trough).  This weather is not a typical of the weather that often effects the eastern United States where storms can tap Gulf of Mexico moisture.

Yet, winter weather will retreat over the next few days and dryer weather will expand northward around warm low pressure located to our south.  This means a respite from the rain and cold temperatures.

The pushing and pulling between weather systems is not that different than what happens in my home.  However, like some people are never satisfied with the weather, others are never satisfied (so it seems) with me (actually, having me around). The other day the wife says to me that she is no longer going to clean the kitchen floor on Wednesday because there always seems to be flour on the floor.  Well, the reason I started making pizza (and bagels) on Wednesday is because I was pushed right out of Thursday.  Strangely, I was pushed out of Friday afternoon so I wouldn't be in the way right before Shabbat, and then I was pushed out of Thursday so I wouldn't stop early preparations for Shabbat.

You probably know that I am on the shorter side of tall.  For this reason I have a very handy stool my mother bought for me years ago.  It's the kind that doesn't slip when you stand on it.  "Oh, you can't reach that," she said?  Why couldn't I reach it? Because my stool had been pushed from a handy place to a far off corner of the kitchen.  One wonders what will happen to me (and the stool) when I am pushed right through the week and out its end (really its beginning).

I am hopeful, though, because I -- like the winter weather -- can always push back and back it will push after a string of beautiful days.  In fact, we see another potential for heavy thunderstorms come Monday or Tuesday as strong low pressure moves eastward into the eastern Mediterranean and taps that southern moisture again.

Following the advent of the storm, the forecast is uncertain. There is a 25% chance that next weeks early storm will be followed by an even colder storm later in the week.

Barry Lynn

Friday, November 6, 2015

Weather It Is (Rain Again)

Good Morning:

The latest 1.3 km and 4 km ensemble forecasts show that rain should develop along the coast today south of Tel-Aviv.  It then should move northward towards Tel-Aviv around noon-time, and then east of it, and then towards Jerusalem soon thereafter.  

The 4 km ensemble shows the potential for 25 - 50 mm of rain in the storms right along the coast, with 25 mm per three hours more likely (60% chance) just east of the city.  The heaviest rain in the central mountains should fall in the area of Jerusalem again around mid-afternoon.  There is a 20% chance of rain amounts > 10 mm.  The rain may slacken in the late afternoon and another 5 to 10 mm may fall in the evening time.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Thursday, November 5, 2015

Weather It Is (A Note)

Good Afternoon:

This is an unusual weather situation.

Low pressure located over the southern Mediterranean will continue the unusual weather pattern.

Today, instead of moisture arriving from the west, it is actually rotating around this system and arriving from the south, augmented with moisture arriving from both the Atlantic ocean (wrapping around the "Red-Sea-Trough" and Red Sea).

Models are still predicting between 10 and 25 mm this afternoon in the Jerusalem area and areas east of Tel-Aviv.

The high dust content is also encouraging the formation of high electrical charge and its discharge as lightning.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Heavy Rain/Dangerous Conditions)

Good Morning:

The latest forecasts from 18 GMT show that the highest probability of heavy rain should be from Jerusalem south through Hebron.  The timing for this is mid-afternoon.  The amount of rain forecast presents a potentially dangerous situation for anyone hiking in the Dead Sea Basin, as well as for roads that interest river run-off locations.  Also heavy rain can lead to ponding of water on roads, and the potential for cars hydroplaning -- leading possibly to mortal accidents.

Rain is also expected in Tel-Aviv with heavier showers east of the city.  The 1.3 km forecast, for instance, still shows 25 to 50 mm, but the 4 km ensemble shows less than 25 mm in 3 hours.

I will update around noon, if necessary.

Dust concentrations will lower from mid-day onwards.

Barry 

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Weather It Is (Dust and Heavy Rain to Come)

Good Evening:

Dust spinning around low pressure located to our southwest is continuing to cause very poor visibility as well as very poor air quality.  The system will shift eastward tomorrow and dust levels will lower Thursday afternoon.

At the same time cold air filtering in at 850 and 700 mb will cause thunderstorms to develop and move in off the sea.  The highest probability of rain is the vicinity of Tel-Aviv and then eastward to Jerusalem and southward to Beer-Sheva, including the Dead Sea area.

There is a very high probability of rain with a greater than 70% chance of more than 10 mm in three hours from late morning until mid-afternoon.  There is a 60% chance of greater than 25 mm in three hours.

The rain should continue into late tomorrow afternoon over the Jerusalem area, and then heavy rain is again possible Friday afternoon as more cold air arrives.

The heavy rain will probably lead to flooding in city streets and streams/rivers in the Dead Sea Valley.

We're still looking at stronger winter storm early/mid-next week.

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Weather It Is (Dust)

With the intensification of low pressure to our southwest, dust has arrived and will persist until Thursday afternoon.

Our dust forecast maps show that some of the plumes rotating in from our east will have high intensities of dust, especially tonight and tomorrow.  Highest dust amounts should be located over the eastern part of the country, especially in the Jerusalem area and Jordan and Dead Sea Valleys, as well as the eastern Arava.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Storm Arrives)

Good Afternoon:

A storm is located over the southern Mediterranean. It has characteristics of a Red Sea trough but will actually become a closed low just north of Sinai during the next 24 hours.  It will bring the chance of tropical showers in the south and possibly the Jerusalem area later today.  There will also be strong winds.

The storm will continue to spin tomorrow and with it the chance of showers as well.

By late on Thursday, however, cold air will filter in at all atmospheric levels and the storm will intensify and move eastward across our coast.  With it should come heavier rain with the possibility of flooding in flood prone areas, including city locations and the Dead Sea and Jordan Valleys.

The cold air will continue its grip well into next week, and the global model are indicating that rain amounts will be generally increasing across our country through this time period. In fact, there is a 25% chance that an even stronger winter storm will arrive mid next-week.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, November 1, 2015

Weather It Is (Changing Weather)

Good Evening:

The weather has been certainly very nice, but it won't stay that way.

True, Monday and Tuesday should be fine weather days, but a storm is brewing.

It should arrive late Tuesday night and Wednesday and last until at least the end of the week.

It will probably arrive with convective rain and then cooling temperatures off the sea should bring a lighter, but possibly more persistent rain.

From mid this week until mid next week temperatures will probably fall to chilly levels.  For this reason, I will probably be receiving a greater number of complaints than usual.  However, we're ready and we have operators standing by to make you feel better and offer suggestions for staying warm.

When the storm arrives on Wednesday, temperatures will drop at 500 mb.  However, the temperatures at 700 mb will not be changing very much, meaning that developing rain showers will need to "break through" a slight capping layer -- but when they do this brings stronger convective storms than when temperatures fall off simultaneously at both lower, middle, and upper levels.  So, we'll have to see how this develops and report later on.

Until then, enjoy the next two days.

Barry Lynn


Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Weather It Is (Severe Weather Event Continues)

Good Evening:

Low pressure continues to spin off our coast in the eastern Mediterranean.

Unfortunately,  a shot of very cold air will be arriving at 500 mb late tonight and tomorrow. Very strong convection is now forecast to develop during this period and move in off the coast.

The heaviest rain is forecast by the model to occur in an arc from Haifa southeastward to the Jerusalem area and then back westward to Beer-Sheva.  The highest probability for heavy rain is in the Jerusalem area mid-afternoon Thursday into the evening, with total rain amounts from 10 mm south to between 25 and 50 mm in the Jerusalem area (including into the Dead Sea Valley).

Right along the coast, the cities of Ashkelon,  Tel-Aviv, and Netanaya may see very heavy rain as storms developing over the sea nudge their way inward to these coastal cities before redeveloping along the Galilee and central mountain spines. Amounts could be above 25 mm in a 3 hour period from late tonight into early afternoon.

We're also expecting plenty of lightning with these storms and strong wind gusts.

The rain should taper off by early Friday, but return again early next week as another wave of early season rain heads our way.

Barry Lynn

Monday, October 26, 2015

Weather It Is (Rain Days)

Good Evening:

While today was predominately rain free, except in the south (where it rained 8 mm in Eilat), our weather will be taking a turn for the worse (or towards winter).

Tonight rain will develop along the coast and make its way eastward by morning.  Rain will fall generally from Beer-Sheva northwards, and continue "off-and-on" into Thursday.  Amounts will accumulate over time to between 25 to 50 mm in many locations.  Some of the storms moving in off the sea will be quite strong, so it is necessary to prepare for strong winds, bouts of heavy rain, and lightning.

The rain will be courtesy of a strong upper-level (500 mb) trough phasing with a low pressure in lower levels.  Temperatures will be dropping by another 5 degrees Celsius at all levels.

Looking further ahead. while it may warm up as the new month approaches, there is also a 20% chance that it will get downright cold (and wet).

Barry Lynn

Sunday, October 25, 2015

Weather It Is (Dangerous Weather Update

Good Morning:

Heavy rain is expected in the Jerusalem area this afternoon and evening.  The rain will spread into the Dead Sea Basin and flooding is likely there.  Heavy rain will also occur in the area of Beer-Sheva and Mitzpe Ramon that will also bring a high likelihood of flooding.

Heavy rain in the Arava down to Eilat will bring flooding throughout this area, and rain in the mountains east of route 90 will probably flood the road and contribute to flooding in Eilat.

Heavy rain on Monday could lead to flooding in coastal cities, with continued flooding in the areas previously mentioned, as well as the Jordan Valley.

Barry Lynn

Saturday, October 24, 2015

Weather It Is (Dangerous Weather)

Good Evening:

We're still on track for a major rain event.  The 4 km (36-72) hour forecast shows rain continuing on Monday, with especially heavy amounts near Ashekelon, Mitzpe Ramon, and the Dead Sea Basin.  Totals may be greater than 50 mm from the area of Jerusalem south to Beer-Sheva, including within the Dead Sea Basin itself.  Heavy rain is also forecast in the Arava, as well as the mountains east of Eilat.

While I can't provide specific details about river flow, this does seem to be potentially very dangerous situation, which should evolve from early afternoon until evening from the eastern Sinai/western Arava through the center and into the Dead Sea area by mid to late afternoon, and then continue through the night, affecting all parts of the country.

Barry Lynn

Friday, October 23, 2015

Weather It Is (A Note on The Dust)

Good Afternoon:

Late Shabbat and into late Sunday dust levels will be increasing from southwest to northeast.

By mid-day Sunday, dust levels could reach extreme values in the desert areas of the south.

The dust will clear out with the rain late Sunday.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (The Second Rain/Flooding)

Good Morning:

Widespread rain is expected on Sunday.  By widespread, we mean that rain should stretch from just northwest of Eilat, and then northeastward through the Arava, the Dead Sea and Jordan Valleys, as well as the Sinai, up through the western Coastal regions, the Galilee, and Hermon.

The rain amounts will generally be between 10 and 25 mm, but because these heavy amounts should fall even in the south and desert regions, we can expect wide-spread flooding in normally dry river beds.  Even if Eilat is spared the rain, it may be affected by river flow as well from the direction of the Sinai and northern river beds.  There is a high probability of rain as the ensemble maps are pretty much "locked in" on this event.  Some of the convective storms in the Sinai might actually bring more than 25 mm of rain.

The temperatures should be mild on Shabbat, but then fall off by about 12 Celsius on Sunday as the storm approaches.  There is a chance of showers on Shabbat, but the main rain should come from Sunday late morning until Monday morning.  Rain showers will probably continue into mid week.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Sunday, October 18, 2015

Weather It Is (People are Complaining (Again))

Good Evening:

"Where's winter?  They want to know.  I get this question in the home and out.  I can be innocently  minding my business (actually, scanning the streets for potential Palestinian Zombie attackers) when out will pop someone: "Where's winter?"  They look at me like "what are you doing?"

Well, the day before last I titled my blog "Winter Approaches" and I can tell you that I meant what I said and wrote what I said.

A small wave of low pressure will approach tomorrow, while temperatures cool slightly.  Some tropical showers are possible.  Cooler weather will follow for Tuesday through Thursday.  A moderate warmup is likely in Shabbat and then temperatures will fall off by about 10 C.

The end of this week, or very early next week,  will see a higher possibility of showers, generally across the country.  However, there is no clear signal at 500 mb so we can't speak yet about rain amounts.  However, all global ensemble members agree that it will rain at some point next week.

Looking ahead the showers sees fall-like temperatures through the end of the month and into early next month.

True, it's not winter, but winter is approaching.  Just a little patience is needed.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, October 15, 2015

Weather It Is (Winter Approaches)

Good Evening:

The weather has certainly been nice.  Much better than the "situation."  One wonders if one "solution" is to close down social media, so that the continuous lies inherent in Palestinian media and social media can no longer be so easily spread.

Had a generation of children not been brought up to hate (and be incited to murder), the past progress (sometimes fragile) towards coexistence (at least among some) might just be bearing fruit.  Of course, this was and is the whole point: to prevent any reconciliation among the Jewish and (what are now called) the Palestinian people.

Anyway, like the situation, the weather will drift along for several days slowly without much change, but because of the season there is still a large potential variability in temperatures from forecast.

However, if not early next week, then certainly by the end of next week the weather will change and more winter like conditions will arrive.  It won't be particularly cold, but it will feel more fall-like.  There is a high likelihood of precipitation, but the amounts are still unclear.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Monday, October 12, 2015

Weather It Is (Zombies)

Good Evening:

We're under cloudy skies, with light breezes.  It's 25 C (today's temperatures reached a high of 29) with 66% humidity. The dust that we had earlier should be advecting southward through the desert regions overnight and out of our area.

Temperatures are actually headed cooler (by mid-week several degrees), but will warm up a bit by the end of the week.

These swings are hard to take.  However, they're nothing compared to our situation where the Palestinian people have been turned into Zombie attackers (from the Times of Israel (http://www.timesofisrael.com/two-israelis-gravely-injured-in-fresh-jerusalem-stabbing/)):

"An eyewitness described the assailants to Channel 2 as being young teenagers, 13 or 14 years of age. The woman said they were armed with 'machetes.'"

Through years of educating their young in the schools, in the mosques, and through media propaganda, they've come to hate Jews and have now been unleashed upon us.

Keep in mind that various voices warned against the indoctrination going on within Area A/B (now "Palestine;" or 38% of the area referred to by many as the "West Bank," but in Israel as Judea and Samaria), but various governments did nothing to stop the Palestinian Authority (now Palestinian government) from poisoning their children.  (Of course, the citizens of Gaza have already been poisoned as well.)

So, now we have herds of Zombies and I am -- quite frankly -- short on words of what to do about it. At least in the movies ("Cannon Fodder" of 2013) Israel came out on top.

I am not sure what the future will bring in this regard, but I am more sure that the next two weeks show a cooling trend from Shabbat onwards, and that 25% of our forecasts suggest a more significant rain by the end of the following week.

Let's hope so -- maybe it will keep our neighbors inside.

Barry Lynn

Friday, October 9, 2015

Weather It Is (The Rain That Was Again)

Good Morning:

Reading that Hamas has declared a "Day of Rage," one wonders why more is not said about this.  Imagine if fathers were to declare a "Day of Rage."  I suppose it would be fine if they were to kick the dog, beat the wife, and yell at the kids (God forbid for all of them).  Yet, when Hamas declares a Day of Rage against the Jews no one says a word.  What kind of people declare a Day of Rage?  Do you find this normal? What kind of people post Youtube videos encouraging their young men and women  to stab someone (a Jew, actually) in the neck?  Yet, you still find a number of people (fortunately not everyone in the world) who can't think of anything worse that there exists the State of Israel -- the only country in this part of the world where these actions would be a crime.

That said, it was nice to notice almost 5 mm of rain in my rain gauge this morning. I received quite a bit of criticism from the son for not notifying him clearly in advance about this (although, I do remember mentioning something about this).  We're in a bit of an unstable weather pattern, which may still bring some showers into mid-afternoon.

However, temperatures will begin to warm up on Shabbat and over the next few days the skies should become predominately sunny with more pleasant fall temperatures.  There may be a small atmospheric wave of low pressure mid next week, but the next more significant chance for rain is about two weeks out (currently at 10%).

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Weather It Is (And So It Was)

Good Evening:

Rain showers -- some of them heavy -- were scattered here and there from the coast to the center, to the north and south to Beer-Sheva.

The Times of Israel (quoting the IMS) wrote:

"The city of Ashdod clocked the highest precipitation at just over 40mm, according to the Israel Meteorological Service. Other cities in the central region also reported high levels with 35 mm in the Sharon, 25mm in Raanana and 27mm in Ashkelon. Tel Aviv recorded a total of 15mm."

For us in the center, it was the storm that didn't quite do it. However, the probability of rain amounts greater than 10 mm was actually quite low.

Looking ahead, it should remain cool with scattered showers (mostly along the coast) into Shabbat.

From Shabbat onwards, we see that the 850 mb level will be warming up by several degrees.  Temperatures will be on the warm, but not very warm side early next week.  Beyond mid next week, we really can't see what is going to happen -- other than not too warm nor too cool.

However, at mid and upper levels (700 and 500 mb, respectively) temperatures are cooling off.  We will likely end up two weeks down the line about 5 degrees Celsius cooler than where we are now (at 500 mb), meaning that the atmosphere is preparing itself for fall clouds, some showers, and winter.

Barry Lynn

Monday, October 5, 2015

Weather It Is (Fall Rains Arrive)

Good Evening:

The summer has come to an end, and perhaps we are all ready to wish it goodbye.

Of course, there is always a lone protest to be heard -- I know at least one person who prefers summer to winter, but she will remain unnamed.  Let that be our only differences!

A strong fall low pressure system will move into our area tomorrow (Tuesday).  Temperatures at 850 mb will fall off into the mid teens, while sharply decreasing to a cool fall 5 C at 700 mb and minus low teens at 500 mb.  The sharp temperature profile coupled with plenty of moisture will create strong convective storms, with possibly 50 to 100 mm of rain falling in the coastal regions and northern mountains Tuesday night.  Rain amounts of around 25 mm will fall in the central areas, with the Jordan and Dead Sea Valleys seeing the possibility of flooding.

Showers should persist into Wednesday and then fairer, but cooler weather will return for the end of the week.

Barry Lynn

Friday, October 2, 2015

Weather It Is (So It Ends)

Good Morning:

It is very hard to read about the shooting death murder of the Naama and Eitan Henkin Thursday evening.  It could have been worse as four of the couples children were in the car. There was also an attempted murder with a large rock that broke the windshield of a family traveling nearby. Both families were on their way home.

Unfortunately, it is what we expect from our "neighbors" (the Palestinians), even if we hope for better.

While it is true that "Sticks and stones can break my bones, words can never hurt me," the words of the Palestinian leadership and its clergy encourage not wars of words, but of deadly weapons (whether they be a gun or a rock).  Just as one chooses to pick up a weapon, one might choose the path of peaceful relations and words instead -- but they don't (and this includes Mr. Abbas, their apparent president for life).

Our string of beautiful weather will also come to an end on Sunday, and Monday will start a turn towards colder fall like weather.  We see a very strong signal in the atmosphere at both 850 and 700 mb, where temperatures will fall off by more than 10 degrees Celsius.  The signal at 500 mb is weaker, and we'll have to wait this out in order to see just how much rain will fall later on Tuesday (Isra-Hag) into Wednesday.

However, it looks like there will be periods of rain from at least Beer-Sheva northward to the Hermon, including the central mountains of Jerusalem.  Winds will also be gusty.

The inclement weather should be followed by a warm-up, but not the kind of warm-up that reminds you of late summer, but of fall.

Modim L' Simcha,

Barry Lynn

Monday, September 28, 2015

Weather It Is (A Little Bit of This and That)

Good Evening:

I had a rather uncomfortable experience today.  I ran into someone who remembers a forecast I made last winter that was not correct.  Fortunately, I remembered it too, so I was ready with my ready made excuses -- like sometimes even a meteorologist gets caught up in the excitement of a potential snow event and can overlook important details.  Actually, this was really more an issue of making better use of the weather information I had at the time, which I've since done (quite well, actually).

Really, I'd like to never have to make an excuse.  We strive for 100% accuracy.  Of course, 100% accuracy actually means that the probability of weather event is provided correctly -- as we never have a complete picture of the weather.  For instance, a 80% of 10 mm of rain in 24 hours means that eight of ten times such should happen when such a probability is given. This would actually be a "100 %" accurate forecast.  More precisely, it means that the probability distribution of the observations should fit the probability distribution of the forecasts.

The weather today was actually quite spectacular, and tomorrow's should be as well. However, there is a strong mid-level shortwave approaching Tuesday night.  The cooling mid-level temperatures combined with some low and mid-level moisture will bring the possibility of some showers into our area.  At the moment, the probability is low, but it is the kind of situation where small scale (hard to forecast) variability (caused by localised changes in topography and winds) can lead to small-scale showers or thundershowers.

The less than perfect weather should last into Wednesday afternoon.  Temperatures will warm up a bit on Thursday and Friday and the nice weather should last to the end of Hag.

Yet, changes are afoot -- and the circulation pattern is transitioning to a more winter-like pattern as we progress towards the middle of the month.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, September 27, 2015

Weather It Is (Just the -> Perfect Chalah Recipe



This makes two large challahs (round or oblong) and 4 small Challah rolls). For half a recipe, add 1/2 TB of salt, instead of 2 1/4 tsps (as below).  You can add raisins to the dough before you roll it up later on (you should put the raisins along the middle of the dough and then fold it over, so the raisins don't cook on the outside of the dough).

You can preheat the oven to 190 Celsius (about 375 F).  If you do, you probably only need 25 minutes of cook time.  Turning the oven on when you put the dough in allows the dough to quickly rise a bit more.

Set aside 6 cups bread flour (and 2 cups whole wheat flour) and then sift to remove any bugs.

In a mixing bowl.

1) Add 2 cups warm water.
2) Add 1/2 cup light brown sugar.
3) Add 1/4 cup honey.
4) Add 3 TB instant yeast.

--> Mix with an egg beater or fork.

5) Add one cup flour -- let rest until bubbles form (yeast needs to "warm-up").

--> Mix with an egg beater.

6) Add 1/2 cup gluten.
7) Add 1/4 cup oil.
8) Add two eggs.
9) Add one cup flour.

--> Mix with an egg beater.

10) Add 2 1/4 tsp of salt.  Don't forget the salt!

--> Attach bread kneading device (or use your hands).

11) Knead bread and add enough flour (about 5 cups) until bread is dry enough to handle with your hands (and a bit elastic). I usually let this go on about 5 to 10 minutes (but over beating can break down the gluten).
12) Remove from mixing bowl and knead a few minutes with your hands, adding enough flour to keep bread from being sticky (but don't add too much flour to make the dough dry).
13) Return to bowl.
14) Spray with canola oil. Cover with wax paper, and a light wet towel.  Put in a warm oven (60 C).
15) About 45 minutes later, the dough should have doubled in size.
16) Punch it down, and then use 2/3 of the dough for making two loafs, and the rest for making rolls. You can add a little bit of flour to keep it from being sticky.
17) Grease pans.
18) Spray dough with Canola oil.
19) About 45 minutes later, the dough should have doubled in size again.
20) Cook for 28 minutes on 190 C, until outside is hard to the touch.
21) Remove from oven, cool on racks until warm and then remove from baking pans.

Thursday, September 24, 2015

Weather It Is (The Day the Clocks Stopped)

Good Afternoon:

Was I the only one who noticed?  Perhaps because I was looking outside at the sky when it happened (and not at my prayer book, which is about 775 pages long): I was apparently spared -- whatever happened.

Before turning around, I noted the temperature and time on the digital clock (5:46 P.M), and when I turned back the clock said the same time -- although the temperature had changed by a degree.

This went on for at least several minutes, the congregation oblivious to the fact that they were reading and rereading the same page over and over again. The members swaying in the wind like reeds.

It was one of the strangest things I've seen.

Today the weather and the time is back to normal.  Never has food tasted so good (of course, we're fortunate not to live in a time of famine, God forbid).  It's 31 C and 28% humidity with a light wind and it's absolutely perfect outside.

Looking ahead: Shabbat may seem some tropical showers and then the Sukkoth holiday should be pleasantly warm and dry (although the end of the holiday may see some more tropical clouds/showers).

There is a 30% chance of our "first" rain will around or shortly after Simchat Torah.

Hag Samaech,

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Weather It Is (A Tad Warm? --> The Perfect Challah)

Good Morning:

The other day I wrote that Yom Kippur looks to be a "tad" on the warm side.  This is true, but it's not the complete story.

In fact, in the central mountains, temperatures will be (as noted) in the low 30s with low humidity.  This means that the Heat Index will be similar to, or even a bit lower than the forecast temperatures.

However, in the central plains areas (e.g., Ben Gurion and Bet-Shemesh), temperatures will be in the mid 30s.  In Tel-Aviv, they will be in the upper 20s to around 30 Celsius, but humidities will be very high, so the Heat Index will be in the low 30s.

Basically, Yom Kippur will be a day where extra caution will need to be exercised.  Stay out of the sun, try to stay indoors and don't walk very fast anywhere.  One might not feel like one is perspiring where the humidities are low, but you are. So, dehydration is a possibility.

Looking ahead, Thursday will stay on the hot side, but temperatures will cool off towards Shabbat. Temperatures will warm up a bit into Sukkoth, but there could be some showers at the end of the month.  I am hoping that the weather signal will become clearer after we're all done doing our "Teshuvah."

As you all know, I consider myself a scientist, and I often experiment in areas outside my field -- like baking bread.  Unfortunately, I reached the nadir of my efforts one Shabbat when the Challah I made for the guests came out rather flat -- more like honey cake than bread. I was stumped, but the the wife said: "it's the honey."  Of course, this was obvious to her but not to me (see: "Women are Wiser" from a blog in September 2014; copied below).  If you've ever lifted a honey jar one can imagine that our little yeast friends would also find it difficult as well.  There were other issues that had to be overcome, but to make a long story short here is the "Perfect Challah Recipe."

This makes two large challahs (round or oblong) and 4 small Challah rolls). For half a recipe, add 1/2 TB of salt, instead of 2 1/4 tsps (as below).  You can add raisins to the dough before you roll it up later on (though. don't let the raisins be on the outside of the dough).

Set aside 6 cups bread flour (and 2 cups whole wheat flour) and then sift to remove any bugs.

In a mixing bowl.

1) Add 2 cups warm water.
2) Add 1/2 cup light brown sugar.
3) Add 1/4 cup honey.
4) Add 3 TB instant yeast.

--> Mix with an egg beater or fork.

5) Add one cup flour -- let rest until bubbles form (yeast needs to "warm-up").

--> Mix with an egg beater.

6) Add 1/2 cup gluten.
7) Add 1/4 cup oil.
8) Add two eggs.
9) Add one cup flour.

--> Mix with an egg beater.

10) Add 2 1/4 tsp of salt.  Don't forget the salt!

--> Attach bread kneading device (or use your hands).

11) Knead bread and add enough flour (about 5 cups) until bread is dry enough to handle with your hands. I usually let this go on about 5 to 10 minutes.
12) Remove from mixing bowl and knead a few minutes with your hands, adding enough flour to keep bread from being sticky (but don't add too much flour to make the dough dry).
13) Return to bowl.
14) Spray with canola oil. Cover with wax paper, and a light wet towel.  Put in a warm oven (60 C).
15) About 45 minutes later, the dough should have doubled in size.
16) Punch it down, and then use 2/3 of the dough for making two loafs, and the rest for making rolls. You can add a little bit of flour to keep it from being sticky.
17) Grease pans.
18) Spray dough with Canola oil.
19) About 45 minutes later, the dough should have doubled in size again.
20) Cook for 28 minutes on 190 C, until outside is hard to the touch.
21) Remove from oven, cool on racks until warm and then remove from baking pans.

Good Morning:

It is said that women are wise, wives are wiser, and young ladies are on their way to wisdom. Thus, it was with much appreciation when I heard from my wife and youngest daughter that winter had arrived, and that winter showers were on their way.  Not understanding that women (and even young ladies) can be impulsive,  I dutifully reported this weather-scoop to you.  True, our forecast maps did show some light rain, but a less emotional hand would have also held the wheel a little more firmly, tacking with the wind -- which was set to move the developing clouds into the late summer/dry desert air. Hence, a more wise word to the wind would have been: winter's here, but any rain drops will probably evaporate before reaching the ground.

Of course, men like to think that they are wise too.  In fact, many men equate money with wisdom, without considering how much more successful women just might be if they spent as much time "making a living" as men -- rather than ensuring that the next generation will know how to spend their money and time wisely and kindly.  If you're not convinced, a couple of examples will follow.

After falling on a slippery floor -- on her head, and being saved by the gallant, courageous, and intrepid Dr. Glick, my wife returned home with 11 stitches.  Being the wise person she is, she noted that the best way to treat accidents is to prevent them, and she sent me out for a floor mat.  Now, she was standing in front of the meat sink, so I immediately dashed out of the house, and was pleased to be able to purchase a spanking new (and quite ethestic ) floor mat from "Big-Deal" Efrat.  Returning truimphantly  to my house with this purchase, she reminded me that we have two sinks, to which I could only reply that she made her request standing in front of one (but not the other).

Another example:  I can be in the kitchen washing the dishes, emptying the dishwasher, cooking, or preparing school food, when the wife arrives.  These, one might think, are very useful things. Obviously, I am really not that smart, as I inevitably am told that I am in her way, and what am doing there at that time in particular, anyway.  A truly wise man would know when the wife is about to arrive and take appropriate action.

I will -- for a first -- wisely end here, but mention that there is absolutely no weather expected for the next two weeks. If expectations are not met, I'll let you know.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, September 20, 2015

Weather It Is (A Quick Bout of Fall)

Good Afternoon:

A quick bout of fall as a sharp short-wave (and accompaning low pressure area) moves into our area tonight and tomorrow.

This storm does not have a lot of moisture associated with it. Nevertheless, we expect showers along the coast later tonight spreading north and south (to Mitzpe Rimon) by morning.

Rain showers are also possible in the central mountains by morning.

The amounts of rain should generally be light, but we can't rule out a heavier shower as there will be some patches of higher humidity.

Yom Kippur should be a nice day, a tad warm, but generally not too humid.

Barry




Thursday, September 17, 2015

Weather It Is (It Sure Is Nice, but Rain is also a Blessing)

Good Afternoon:

It sure is nice outside.  The temperature at 3 IDT is 30 C, with 38% humidity and a heat index of 29 C.  This just shows that with the low humidity, it actually feels cooler than it is.  There's also a light westerly wind at 5 km/h.

To be honest with you, I'm looking forward to the day(s) when I can write about the possibility (and then hopefully probability) of our first snow.  It's different in America (the USA), where a snow storm pops up on the horizon and arrives just a few days later (at most).  Here, we often have to look two weeks ahead and by the storm arrives I am a bit of a nervous wreck.  You see, I don't want to raise expectations too high and commit the "sin" of misleading anyone.

Speaking of sins, we all headed over to the neighbors to throw our sins into their beautiful pond complete with swimming (rather than plastic) fish and (real) Lilly Pads.  They have an amazing new device (that you can even use on Hag). It's called a "Sinometer."  You pass it on your way in and a number (in my case: 64-kg) comes up and on the way out it reads (in my case) 54-kg.  It means that in my case I unburdened myself of 10 Kilos of sins.

Contrast this to my wife.   Before heading off to do Taschlich, I asked her "what's that?"  "Oh, this is my bag of sins."  It turns out it was empty.  Why was it empty?  Because my son said that he was sure that she needed a bigger bag (and one can see just how important it is to treat our children with a light  and caring hand), and he'd proceeded to empty it of all its contents.

Of course, I was curious about what (sins) might have been in the bag -- as last year and the year before she had none to speak of.  "Oh, the time I made you potatoes when you wanted pasta, and the time I made for you pasta when you wanted rice," she answered.

So, now I know where at least some of those Kilos came from:  not (always) expressing proper appreciation for all the goodness she bestows upon me.  Part of being kind is expressing happiness even when some of the small things in life don't go your way.

That still leaves about 8 Kilos, but I need to detour back to the weather.  We see pretty much the same weather through Sunday, except for a degree warmer.  However, a low pressure front will approach on Sunday night and drop temperatures on Monday and Tuesday by about 5 degrees Celsius. It will also bring our first chance of heavier showers (not counting the thunderstorms that occurred Tuesday/Tuesday night -- especially in the south).  It's not sunny weather, but I'm sure that you'd agree it's a blessing nevertheless.

The clouds should mostly part by Wednesday morning and temperatures will moderate back up today's pleasant weather temperatures-- as Yom Kippur morning services begin.

Looking further ahead, there is about a 30% chance it will get a bit hot, a 40% chance that temperatures will just continue as they will be (on Wednesday; Yom Kippur), and a 30% chance that the weather will turn cooler.

It pretty much sums up our predicament.  Will we work to make ourselves better, or -- God forbid -- slip on the ice -- or will we just stay the same?

Now, I know where the other 8 Kilos of sins came from: not enough patience with my children and not enough effort to be better.  You see, if you're not trying to be better you're really getting worse.

Let's make this New Year something special!

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Weather It Is (Tropical Weather)

Good Afternoon:

The weather has turned a bit tropical -- meaning higher humidities.  At the same time temperatures are cooling in the upper atmosphere meaning that the stability of the atmosphere is lowering.

The result will be a chance of more thundershowers.  Some of them may cause flooding in the vicinity of the Dead Sea later this afternoon and evening.

There will also be a chance of showers down to Mitzpe Rimon and up in the area of Lake Kinneret.

Unfortunately, this is a "hit or miss" type of weather situation, where very small scale atmospheric processes will trigger storms just about anywhere in the area mentioned.  Hence storms are possible, but putting a probability to their occurrence is difficult.

In any case, some of these storms could lead to stream flooding, as 5 to 10 mm could fall in some locations around Jerusalem and the Dead Sea.

On Monday and Tuesday of next week a stronger system will move through, bringing a chance of a more general rainfall.  Will it be termed the "First-Rain?"  We'll have to wait a bit to get closer to the event and then let the "talking-heads" decide.

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Weather It Is (Early Showers?)

Good Evening:


Weather spotters (as in young eager eyes) have reported lightning in the eastern sky.  I have confirmed its occurrence.

The weather is changing and we're going to be directly affected.

The latest forecast shows a chance of thundershowers tomorrow afternoon in the Jerusalem and Dead Sea area.  We'll try to report on rain probabilities tomorrow morning.

Looking into early next week:  temperatures will be undergoing a cooling trend for the next few days.  However, a trough will develop to our west and bring warmer temperatures on Sunday.  As it moves through, we'll have our highest rain chances of the new year, as well as cooler temperatures.

Stay tuned.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, September 13, 2015

Weather It Is (Weather for the New Year)

Good Morning:

I have received some complaints in the last few days.

So, I must apologise for the following:

1) When I predicted sunny skies and a cloud passed your way.

2) When I predicted a cloud or two, but a drop damped your day.

3) When I predicted 10 inches of snow, but only five fell your way.


And of course, there's dust.

"Very disappointed with your site.  Day after it happened you mention "dust advisory".  Where were you before?  The storm was coming our way week in advance and nobody mentioned it!  What good does this kind of weather reporting does?"

Perhaps it's not my fault?

In last week's parsha (Ki-Tavo), we learned: "But it shall come to pass, if thou will not heaken to the voice of the Lord thy God, to observe to do all his commandments... The Lord shall make the rain of thy land powder and dust: from heaven shall it come down upon thee, until thou be destroyed."

(Thank you to my oldest daughter for this observation.)

The reader has to keep in mind that there are things we know and things we don't know.  There are things we know we don't know. Then there are also things we don't know we don't know (as Donald Rumsfeld once said).

However, in our case, a better metaphor would be a tree falling in a forest and nobody noticed. We did know, but...

Everytime I issue a blog forecast, I deal with a lot of information.  Over the years, I have worked to synthesize this data in a way that allows me to stay on top of the important weather events.  We produce dust forecast maps.  I can tell you that we correctly forecast that there would be a widespread dust event, and we forecast it in advance.  One just had to look at the dust maps.  Moreover, we correctly forecast that it wouldn't go away "by [last] Wednesday morning," as thought elsewhere.

However, perhaps because of the origin of the dust or perhaps because we haven't had enough time to test this model (that we adapted from elsewhere), it wasn't clear just how high the concentrations would be. They were forecast to be persistent, but the forecast concentrations were less than observed.  So, first off, the forecast dust did not trigger one of my forecast "alarms." Second, it actually didn't occur to me to think about dust with this last heat wave (some call it "storm" -- as it came from a place we never had dust from before) -- so I didn't even look at the maps until I awoke in the morning on Tuesday.  Not thinking to look and not having my warning algorithm tripped by the forecast dust amounts meant that I was left in the dark -- or basically the tree fell and no one noticed.

Of course, one can argue that dust is not weather, but people around here think it's weather and we're going to make a better effort to get it right.

Regarding another complaint:

"What is wrong with your site?

It is predicting thunderstorms every day this week. Not a chance in Hell. It’s over 30 degrees centigrade out, and is very very very rarely rains in Israel in thesummer.

Something is WRONG with your data. It is Not going to rain, much less thunderstorm...
shalom"

Our site shows a chance of thunderstorms in some locations. Actually, the global forecast model also shows a chance of showers in the next few days.   The algorithm that produces these results is based on an analysis of stability factors.  It wasn't designed for here and it needs to be better tuned for here.  Still, there is a short period in the fall when it actually works, and this may be one of them (this is in contrast to our forecasts based purely on forecast cloud rain amounts).

Now that this is out of the way,

Here's our weather:  hot through the Rosh Hashanah holiday.  Not 100 F, but still hot, and while not as hot in the valleys as in the mountains, more humid.  High temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s Celsius just about everywhere, and hotter in the Jordan, Dead Sea Valley, and southern deserts.  In fact, down in the desert area there will persistent dust and a large amount of dust is forecast to advect off the Sinai tomorrow afternoon into Tuesday.  There will also be lighter dust amounts in the northern part of the country, especially the eastern half.

Cooler weather will not arrive until sometime Wednesday.  Rain showers may occur early next week.

La Shana Tova!

Barry Lynn