Weather It Is (A Breather, Yet)

Good Morning:

By this time last year, we had recorded only 11 mm of rain in Efrat. This year, we are close to 150 mm.  Last year, we received almost 300 mm in a week's time, but nearly nothing until March.

After last year's intense winter storm, a blocking pattern developed in western Europe (which directed the rest of the winter time storm-energy into northern Europe).  This year, we generally see that storms transverse across southern Europe, while higher pressure over north-central Europe feeds cold (storm) energy southward, helping to spin up these storms as they approach the eastern Mediterranean.

Looking ahead through this week, however, we see no significant weather.  Yet, we do these a signal for much colder and possibly much wetter weather next week.  Contained within this signal is some unseasonably cold weather. Nevertheless, the possibility of stormy weather remains at this time unclear.  It's possible, but not certain.

On the other hand -- always the optimist -- we ordered larger sized snow bibs for our oldest daughter.  My wife (the Israeli) thinks this sort of funny (if not a waste of money).  I can only say that one would hate to miss the few chances to enjoy the snow for want of proper snow pants.  In my day, we went up north to ski. Here, we are hopeful that we might step outside to build a snowman.  

By the way, after not snowing for three years in a row, we have now had snow three years in a row.  Snowfall amounts in the eastern US have certainly been increasing compared to the decade of the 90s. We should, perhaps, be optimistic.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Our Storm Ends -- Eventually)

Good Morning:

One might have noticed last night the pitter patter of raindrop-feet on the roof.  If one listened carefully, one might have noticed that they were not all of the same size -- one shoe does not fit all!

Our winter storm will weaken today, and eventually move away tonight.

In the meantime, our forecast still shows that between 10 and 25 mm should fall in the area of Ashquelon (south).  The rain will be drifting southward towards the far southern coast and Beer-Sheva. Even though the rain is ending, the amounts could still exacerbate flooding.  Rain will continue in Jerusalem and Gush Etzion as well. 

Looking ahead: with the exception of a slight chance of showers early next week, we are looking at drier and warmer weather until week's end.  

The following week should see a drop in temperatures.  There is a 30% chance of rain the following week.  If the rain occurs, temperatures should drop off and snow may fall on the Golan again.  We're watching a slight chance of snow in the higher elevations, but this is not something to worry about yet.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Stampede)

Good Morning:

The pleasant pitter-patter of rain drops of the past few days has become a stampede.

Moisture streaming around low pressure over Cyprus will continue to develop heavy rain in a corridor from Ashquelon to Jerusalem and Gush Etzion. Forecast rain amounts are > 100 mm within this corridor stretching eastward through Jerusalem and Gush Etzion. There will be greater than 50 mm in an area extending into southern Tel Aviv and to its east.

The strongest wind speeds will occur within the next few hours within the heavy rain corridor.  Gusts of > 50 km/h are likely.

Periods of rain should continue tomorrow, but in lighter amounts.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Winter Storm Arrives)

Good Morning:

The winter storm we wrote about a few days ago is upon us.

It will start later this afternoon in the north and heavy rain, strong winds, and lightning will move southward during the evening and night. 

The storm is forecast to last up to three days (into Thursday night).

There will be some snow on the Hermon, but the real story will the total rain amounts that should average between 50 to 100 mm from about Beer-Sheva to the Golan.  Localized areas of greater than 100 mm will also occur.

Flooding is expected in all flood prone areas: the coastal cities, area of Beer-Sheva, and the Dead Sea and Jordan Valleys.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Winter Storm)

Good Morning:

Yesterday's storm brought mostly wind rather than rain.  However, yesterday's storm will strengthen today and bring rain to most of the central and northern parts of the country.  There is a small chance of flooding in the central and north coastal regions with some of the storms, as well as lighting from noon today until Monday  morning.

The rain on Monday should spread to the eastern valleys.  Total rain amounts should be between 50 to 100 mm along the coast and 10 to 25 mm in the Jordan and Dead Sea Valleys through Tuesday afternoon. Lighter rain amounts are forecast throughout the Arava.

There is a high probability that more cold air will move into the storm by mid-week, and hence very strong development is expected on Wednesday and Thursday.  There will be a very heavy rain covering most of the country with very strong and possibly damaging winds. Snow is a strong possibility on the Hermon.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Winter Storm and Merry...

Good Morning:

High pressure over central Europe will help funnel wintertime temperatures our way during the next few days.  The cold air will help to spin up a series of storms, which should bring periods of heavy rain and strong winds. Flooding is a distinct possibility in flood prone areas like the Jordan Valley, Dead Sea, and areas of the northern Arava.  Rain may continue off and on all week!

The rain should enter the coast this afternoon and spread to the central mountains later in the day.  While Shabbat may start not very rainy, rain should redevelop and come down heavy at times during the afternoon and continue into Sunday.

Our security forces just stopped a "Christmas" shipment of knives, fireworks, and swords, which were meant to make our Palestinian neighbours a merry time indeed.  Imagine if the shipment contained toys? Unfortunately, this is as likely as John Lennon's song "Imagine" coming to be.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Big Storm On The Way)

 

Good Afternoon:

The weather is certainly pleasant, and it will actually be warming up a bit ahead of the next storm system.  However, this is only a short ride before the crash - the crash of a severe winter storm that should batter us with heavy rain and strong winds from Friday night onwards.

In fact, this should be a prolonged period of wet weather and rain amounts should be generally between 50 to 100 mm over large portions of the country, with some areas receiving more than 100 mm over the wet period.

Looking further ahead, we see the possibility of another storm later next week.  This one might bring snow to Mt. Hermon.

I just heard that the government suggests we post guards at the entrances to synagogues. They are also suggesting that all Israelis buy protective gear -- the kind that resembles "full-body armor." These body armor suits will be available very soon and can be picked up at the same location where gas masks are distributed.   It seems that the best defense is not the best offense.  My suggestion is to evacuate the residents of Jabel Mukaber and then raze it to the ground. As long as the Palestinians population supports these types of attacks, then simple house demolitions will never be enough.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Stormy)

Good Afternoon:

The weather is certainly pleasant, and it will actually be warming up a bit ahead of the next storm system.  However, this is only a short ride before the crash - the crash of a severe winter storm that should batter us with heavy rain and strong winds from Friday night onwards.

In fact, this should be a prolonged period of wet weather and rain amounts should be generally between 50 to 100 mm over large portions of the country, with some areas receiving more than 100 mm over the wet period.

Looking further ahead, we see the possibility of another storm later next week.  This one might bring snow to Mt. Hermon.

I just heard that the government suggests we post guards at the entrances to synagogues. They are also suggesting that all Israelis buy protective gear -- the kind that resembles "full-body armor." These body armor suits will be available very soon and can be picked up at the same location where gas masks are distributed.   It seems that the best defense is not the best offense.  My suggestion is to evacuate the residents of Jabel Mukaber and then raze it to the ground. Send them to Syria, where their tendencies for blood lust can be certainly fine tuned. 

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Heavy Rain)

Good Afternoon:

The forecast for Saturday evening into Sunday looks to be quite rainy.  Our 4 km forecast is predicting 50--100 mm of rain during this period in the coastal regions. The rain will develop in response to low pressure forming off the coast late Saturday afternoon.  Rain will spread inland towards the central mountains, although lesser amounts will likely occur.

These storms will likely be accompanied by lightning strikes. Stay away from open spaces and/or isolated trees. 

The next rain event will probably arrive late next week.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Winter Day...)

Good Evening:

The weather has certainly been delightful -- quite stunning.

Yet -- on schedule -- energy from a broad area of low pressure over western Europe is headed our way.  It should arrive in the afternoon on Shabbat, spin up a storm, and bring a light to moderate rain (most likely) later in the day and at night, possibly lasting into Sunday.

After the passage of this low pressure area, the weather will clear out for a few days.  However, by mid-week the large trough will be moving our way.  One of our ensemble members even shows temperatures dropping off towards freezing about two weeks out.  More likely, it will just get more like winter cold, but the cold we have associated with a rainy day.  Right  now, the chance of rain is about 40% for this period.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Loss Come Back To Haunt Us)

Good Evening:

We've had three beautiful days as weak high pressure has remained over our area.  We'll cruise along for another couple of days, while temperatures trend slowly downwards.

Mid-week, upper level energy will be ejected from a large trough of low pressure over western Europe.  It should make its way eastward, and bring us some light to moderate rain at the end of this week.

Unlike last year when the trough of low pressure over Europe remained stuck in place (and anonymously strong), the current trough is forecast to break down.  This will possibly set our table for more winter weather sometime next week, as high pressure builds over central Europe, and feeds cold air into our neck of the woods.

Speaking of cruising, it seems that the Palestinians have taken to cruising their cars into us. If that is not enough, knife attacks in the neck seem to be a "nice' follow up.

You might remember that I wrote sometime ago that if anyone (of Hamas) is left standing to claim victory after the Gaza war, then we've lost.  Well, now the same Hamas folks are encouraging more attacks and praising those who make them.  Of course, the so-called peace-loving (moderate; wouldn't hurt a fly) Palestinian Authority also has their hands in the mix.  When it comes down to it, there is really relatively little difference between Mr. Hamas and Mr. Fatah (Abbas) -- the latter just wears a different color suit.

It is time to close the roads again to Palestinians!  Or, send in the tanks and crush all their cars.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Small Scale Rain)

Good Morning:

Our latest forecasts shows a very small scale feature. This small scale feature is producing a streamer of rain off the Mediterranean.  Most of the heavier rain is located in the area of Tel-Aviv, where 15 to 20 mm is shown in some locations during the late night hours.  Lighter showers are occurring towards Jerusalem.  Showers are still possible from Tel-Aviv to the Jerusalem mountains during Wednesday.


Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Pause for A Word)

Good Evening:

Our latest storm system is on its way out of the area, and we are the worse for it -- at least when it comes to broken windshields from large sized hail, downed trees from strong winds, and a few locations singed by lightning.

Looking ahead shows a nice warm up, which will bring back more pleasant temperatures.  The weather pattern shows a relative zone of weak winds over our area, as the weather "action" shifts far west of us.

The early season rains have brightened our moods and are, of course, a source of happiness for us all. Another source of happiness is news of or even the attendance at a wedding.  I had the privilege of attending one with much happiness (dancing and singing) just the other night.  My wife, politely (of course) asked me how the wedding was (and you already know).  She then preceded to tell me about how all the kids went to to bed on time, without any arguments, and without any extra effort.  The house, she said, was quite relaxed during my absence.

Was it coincidence, then, when I noticed the next day the words on the first song in the Mary Poppins play, where the women sing of liberation: "Men are okay individually, but as a group they're stupid."  In a moment of reflection, I think I heard my wife say the same thing.

True, the wedding night is a source of joy, but one wonders if women marry simply because they don't see a better alternative.  Men, on the other hand, would never think such things about wives.  In fact, we look forward to the wedding night and after, even after when we realise that women don't need to be liberated at all -- they're already boss!

We all take our chances in life, and next week we'll have to take our chance about the weather.  We're getting some indication that rain could return late next week.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Special Weather Statement)

Good Morning:

Our next storm has taken a turn for the worse.  The latest forecasts show that precipitation streamers (or bands) of precipitation will develop this morning and afternoon.  The streamers will first develop up north (in the vicinity of Haifa), and then progress their way southward during the morning.  The rain is forecast to continue into Wednesday.

The precipitation will be convective in nature, and heavy rain with very strong winds can occur during this period.  The rain can create hazardous driving conditions.  The wind can cause damage, and lightning is expected with the strong thunderstorms.  There will likely be periods of sunshine as well, but this isn't unusual during storms of this type.

The inclement (and cold) weather should persist until towards the end of the week, as the trough remains firmly anchored over the eastern Mediterranean.  Temperatures should moderate briefly, but the weather pattern may bring another bout of rain next week.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Some People Like the Rain)

Good Afternoon:

My oldest daughter likes the rain.  Where I came from, people liked the snow. 

I wonder if this is just reduced expectations or if the contrast between summer and winter brings out the finer and more beautiful points of rain.   In fact, my wife said that the drops were dancing on the roof -- and since their "show" arrived in Mar-Chesvan -- this was the first rain.

The weather will take a breather today, but another storm will develop Monday and Tuesday, with the bulk of its rain to fall on Tuesday, possibly into Wednesday.

After this storm passes, we'll enter a period of relative tranquility, or a place where relatively little weather is happening on this side of the Mediterranean.

Looking further ahead, our crystal ensemble ball is cloudy:  there is no clear signal for next week.

Things are far from tranquil elsewhere.  Did you know that the ISIS is continuing to mass-murder minorities in Iraq?  Isn't the American "military" supposed to be preventing this?  We are fortunate not to depend on American Security guarantees, especially in regard to the Jordan Valley.  In fact, one can easily imagine a scenario where any "peace agreement" turns bad, and the world, including the Europeans, will simply wring their hands.

Safety and security starts at home.

Barry Lynn