Weather It Is (Will it Snow on Purim?)

Good Morning:

This morning I heard from a passer by that it always snows on Purim.  And, if this weren't enough, he said that considering how strange the winter it is (i.e, no winter at all since our big storm), the chance that we'll get a really big storm on Purim is even higher than usual.

Of course, the caveat was that perhaps we're (i.e, the Jewish people) are getting "punished" for improper behaviour (however you want to define this). Hence, there just might be no storm at all.

I have included various comments I received about whether it always snows on Purim. You can read them below (names withheld; quotes withheld).

So, where does all this talk leave us?  Should we believe the (Old) wives' tale that it always snows on Purim? Let's see what's in our weather crystal ball.

We see quite warm weather in the near future.  We see that the low pressure block in the eastern Atlantic has broken down and been replaced with a large area of high pressure (called the Azore high).

We see that a piece of the high pressure system should migrate into central Europe behind a low pressure trough that will bring our springtime weather to an end early next week. As the high migrates eastward it should force colder air southward helping to reinvigorate a secondary trough ejecting southward from the northern branch of the jet stream.  At this point we are set up for a real winter event.

Unfortunately, we don't see with any clarity beyond this period (10 days out).  For instance, will the northern Jet stream then phase with this (now) southern storm (see picture below)? If so, perhaps my morning acquaintance will be correct.  Shabbat Shalom.

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I remember snow on purim once: the first year I was in israel as a student. of course no buses etc in jerusalem.  i had no winter clothes to speak of, because i thought israel was a warm climate.  walked 2 hours to a seuda wearing boots i pinched out of my roommates closet.  they got ruined and i spent days trying to find an identical pair to replace them - but no such luck.  at the end had to confess.

wait - when i was in sherut leumi it also snowed on purim.

so that is twice.
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the saying you are looking for is: "it always rains on the day the kids dress up at school"
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It snowed in Jerusalem in l979 Purim night.
There were no bulldozers and snow shovels in those days.
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Snow seems so far beyond out of the question right now...
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I remember at least 2 Purims in the Gush that we were snowed in.
That was 30-40 years ago though.
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It snowed on Purim in 1993 or 1994. And I remember it hailed once in Efrat during seuda about 10 years ago.
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שנה .
וזה ממש לא נכון.
אכן היו מקרים של שלג בפורים אבל ברוב השנים זה לא נכון .
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I remember 2 or 3 times in the past 20 yrs but lots of years with hail and rain storms
I think I only remember 3/4 purims without any weather so I guess it's the same chance as snow!
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I had guests that were once snowed in when they came to visit me up north...they were from Cleveland
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Weather It Is (Spring Rain)

Good Evening:

A storm is on the way, but the amount of rain predicted with this storm (late Tuesday into Thursday morning) is more typical of spring than winter.  True, temperatures will cool down, but shortly after the storm departs, we'll be headed back up to warmer temperatures.

I've been writing about how our strange weather might be attributed to changes in CO2 gas concentration.  It has been pointed out that the CO2 gas concentrations have increased by about 10% in the last 15 years, but the world's surface temperatures have remained pretty much unchanged during this time. Hence, one might conclude that there is no direct relationship between changes in CO2 gas concentrations and surface temperatures.   In fact, from the point of those living in the eastern US, we've had global cooling.

However, December temperatures (worldwide ocean and land) were third highest since records began in 1880.  The mean temperatures were 0.64 C above average, while a relatively warm western US almost balanced out the colder eastern US.

An acquaintance pointed out to me that we are actually in a period of minimal solar activity, and one might expect warmer temperatures were solar activity to increase.  Yet, he also argued that solar activity (or the tilt of the orbit) are more important factors than any changes in CO2 gas due to the industrial revolution, etc. The global atmospheric models that are used to predict climate impacts of changing CO2 gases unfortunately disagree with him.

Droughts, floods, fire, and (even) big snows have happened from time to time, even without us.  One question to consider is:  how accurate are these models?  The second is:  are we better to adapt and try to beat mother nature (even if we are part of mother nature) -- or should we try to change our behaviour to maintain the current "equilibrium" which may turn out to be less of an equilibrium than we hoped for.

On my part, I'd just like some more winter snow -- it's the reason I became interested in weather forecasting in the first place and I find nothing more relaxing than to just want the snow fall (while wondering just what "they" think of me).

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Feels Like Spring)

Good Afternoon:

Last time we wrote about blocking low pressure area and the possibility of a very large snowstorm along the east coast.

Now, it looks like it is going to get very cold again in the eastern US (but the storm may go off the coast), but the blocking low pressure area in the eastern Atlantic has broken down.  This means the possibility of rain here next week.

Yet, none of the weather systems that will impact us next week are forecast to be very strong. The only silver in the lining (which means a storm here, rather than in the usual sense: "every cloud has a silver lining") is the possible late entrance of extremely cold air rotating around the Azores high (that is nosing into western Europe. However, there is no indication yet that anything will come of it.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (To Block or Not)

Good Early Morning:

For some reason, our (wonderful) dog likes to get up at around 2 A.M each night for a quick risposte outside.

I'd like to take this moment to mention that yesterday the atmospheric circulation looked that it might reestablish the circulation block over the eastern Atlantic.  It may just do this, at least eventually, as another giant and fierce snowstorm may impact the eastern coast of the US by late February.

However, in the meantime, it looks like storms will continue to flow through the jet stream into western Europe where the energy (cold air) from these systems will help to build a trough over eastern Europe.  This means that our rain chances will be on the increase from Sunday onwards, as well as the likelihood of colder temperatures as well.

Until then, enjoy the springtime weather!

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (There Was a Change, But)

Good Afternoon:

Certainly the weather pattern is changing, as the deep blocking low in the eastern Atlantic (off the coast of England) has spun apart.  Vortices of cold air are now moving across Europe and one of them will impact our weather this Friday night into Shabbat afternoon.

Unfortunately, this weather system will remain a bit disorganised, and the rain pattern looks both like something of late fall (most of the rain from Jerusalem northward), while a piece of atmospheric energy will also impact the Arava south later on Shabbat.  Still a third may bring light rain on Sunday.

Looking further ahead, the weather should warm up a bit after the passage of this storm, and it may be followed early the following week by another storm.  We see a small chance that this storm will phase with the northern storm track, which could bring a more significant rain (or snow) to end February.  However, the chance is small, and we don't see any consensus at this time.

It is strange to live in a place where the weather is always so nice!

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (The Weather Is Changing)

Good Evening:

The eastern US has seen numerous storms this winter.  However, tt was pointed out to me that these storms move out into the western Atlantic where they have grown (and merged) to create almost a super storm in the eastern Atlantic.   You can see (surface and 850 maps) that the low pressure wind pattern covers a large area and can understand how a normal trip of 10 hours across the Atlantic takes only 9 hours now (but you pay the same amount).

What is really interesting is that this large scale circulation pattern will break down during the next 10 days and a trough will build in the eastern Mediterranean.  This will follow our next important (although smaller scale) rain event that should arrive about Shabbat.

The first storm will be a forerunner for continued changes in the circulation pattern, and actually low pressure may develop at the end of the 10 day period and provide an even more important rain.  You might also note that the 850 mb trough is building a connection to a developing cold air vortex over northern Siberia.  The merger of this trough with the passing trough may eventually lead to a much colder and even more significant weather event near the end of this month (February).

Barry Lynn

Surface Pressure Pattern Now

850 mb Heights

Add caption

Surface Map 10 days hence

850 mb 10 days hence

Weather It Is (Rain on the Way)

Good Afternoon:

It looks like our drought will bend a bit (rather than break) at the end of the week, as cold air moves in from the west.  This is not a heavy, heavy rain, but it also a rain that should cover most of the country.

Until this storm arrives, temperatures will rise by several more degrees.  After the storm departs, temperatures will return to mild winter levels for a few days.  Beyond mid next week, we'll have to wait and see if temperatures move upwards towards an early spring or downwards for a late winter rain (with a small chance of wet snow).  

Winter may never have begun, but it may just be ending -- drought and all.  As they say, we're not in Kansas anymore (or better yet, New York where another coastal snow storm is expected Wednesday night and Thursday).

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (The Climate in the News)

Good Afternoon:

The drought continues to deepen, and is being mirrored by an even worse drought in California (which is being referenced as the worst drought in 500 years).  Here, we have to go back 150 years to find a year as dry as this one.

The cause of the drought is a sharp change in the wave pattern of the polar jet, which is unusually far southward in some areas (where it is very cold) and correspondingly far north in others (where it is drier).  The unusual web pattern is being attributed to arctic sea ice melting that is itself most likely a consequence of elevated carbon dioxide levels (often associated with global warming).

There are those who say that all of this has nothing to do with global warming; they say that the global average temperatures did not really warm last decade -- ignoring the fact that last decade is the warmest overall and that 6 or 7 of the last 10 years have been the warmest on average of any years in the temperature record.  Also to grasp at the last 10 years of the record (from NASS GISS, below: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A.gif) one has to really be able to argue that we're going to head back down to where we were 40 years ago.  There is no evidence for this.

Further support for a changing climate is found in the maximum/minimum temperature records. While there have been many low temperature records set this January (in the US), the number of high temperature records now exceeds the number of cold temperature records by 2:1.
See this reference:http://www.motherjones.com/blue-marble/2014/01/climate-temperature-records-leon-cold.

So, where does that leave us: hoping for rain.  However, the next few days should see an upward trend in temperatures.  We can hope that the end of the week will see a more substantial rain, and indeed rain does look likely.  We'll have to wait and see if we trend towards a small event or a large event; right now the scale of the rainfall is unclear.  The larger the rainfall, the colder the temperatures and this might make for more interesting weather.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Frittering Away Our Chances)

Good Morning:

While the snowy (and at times frigid) storm track along the east coast of the United States remains a persistent feature, we persist in frittering away whatever rain chances appear on the horizon.

By we, of course, I mean our weather pattern.  True, our weather pattern appears to have shifted, but it seems that any chances of a good soaking rain evolve into just chances of a light (more spring-like) rain.  In fact, such a rain should dot our country today (some call it the "Jewish" country, but in fact it is no more "Jewish" than the United States is Christian -- meaning some of both -- and it is no less (if not more) democratic)).

The reasons for our unusual weather -- and a drought that is itself unusually dry -- are are unclear.  For example, California too is suffering from what may be the worst drought in 500 years.  We know that the weather patterns have changed and they may have changed because the weather in the arctic has changed -- and many attribute the changes in the arctic weather pattern to changes in sea ice associated with the melting of the sea ice due to elevated Carbon Dioxide levels.

On the other hand, various folks mention the drought of 1950. But at some point during this drought the weather was so cold that folks went into the sea with their boots on to warm their feet!  I heard this story just the other day.  This was also the year it snowed all up and down the coastline.

Being from NY, I wouldn't mind three or four nice snows every year.

My wife says that one can get just about anything in Israel -- and one year this meant a delivery of blueberries right to our door (in fact, just after she said just that and I said "well, one can't get blueberries") -- her statement was followed by a knock on our door (blueberries from the Golan)).

Can we also have peace as well?

Barry Lynn