The rain and cold will arrive late Monday.
Good Evening:
Rain will continue over the northern sections of the country as a storm develops off the coast. A reinforcing push of winter air (cold. but not that cold) will arrive Tuesday, and should bring a pretty heavy rain to the centre as well.
Looking ahead, there will be a chance of showers, but the highlight will be continued cool (or cold) winter weather (possibly to the end of next week).
Barry Lynn
Sunday, December 29, 2013
Wednesday, December 25, 2013
Weather It Is (Sailing On -- Until the Wind Changes)
Good Evening:
The latest GFS ensemble forecast shows that we're headed for a return to winter. But, first, we'll have a couple more pleasant days before the storm.
The storm should approach from the west on Shabbat. Perhaps because the sea is still warm, this storm should be relatively cold at upper levels, but relatively warm at lower levels.
The temperature profiles indicate the possibility of wet snow Sunday night (at the highest elevations). Otherwise, rain will arrive late Shabbat or Motzei Shabbat, and continue on and off until Monday.
You have to keep in mind that any snowflakes that make it to the ground will probably regret having taken the plunge from their safe haven up above, unless they are fortunate to land on a car (cars tend to be a bit colder than the air temperature). In fact, they may all vanish before given the chance to melt quickly on the ground or find some respite on a colder surface like a car windshield.
The storm should pass, but the weather will remain winter cool. Beyond mid-next week, the weather forecast shows very little of value, other than the possibility (but not likelihood) of some colder winter yet -- but it might be comparatively warm as well.
Barry Lynn
The latest GFS ensemble forecast shows that we're headed for a return to winter. But, first, we'll have a couple more pleasant days before the storm.
The storm should approach from the west on Shabbat. Perhaps because the sea is still warm, this storm should be relatively cold at upper levels, but relatively warm at lower levels.
The temperature profiles indicate the possibility of wet snow Sunday night (at the highest elevations). Otherwise, rain will arrive late Shabbat or Motzei Shabbat, and continue on and off until Monday.
You have to keep in mind that any snowflakes that make it to the ground will probably regret having taken the plunge from their safe haven up above, unless they are fortunate to land on a car (cars tend to be a bit colder than the air temperature). In fact, they may all vanish before given the chance to melt quickly on the ground or find some respite on a colder surface like a car windshield.
The storm should pass, but the weather will remain winter cool. Beyond mid-next week, the weather forecast shows very little of value, other than the possibility (but not likelihood) of some colder winter yet -- but it might be comparatively warm as well.
Barry Lynn
Tuesday, December 24, 2013
Weather It Is (Hanging On)
Good Afternoon:
Our late December "heat-wave" has arrived and will remain with us for a few more days. It's not really a heat wave; but 11 C does feel a bit warmer than 7 C.
The pleasant weather will turn wet and cold late Shabbat/Sunday as a storm arrives from the west. There is the possibility of wet snow with the rain, but this is just a possibility, and this storm will be more rain than snow, and not be particularly heavy.
Looking farther into our crystal forecast ball, we see the weather remaining cool for a few more days, before the fog of chaos veils our eyes. Yet, there is one brave forecast-soul who would like to plunge us back into winter during the second week of January. He's alone, and he's quite contrary to speak of snow, while the rest of his group (of 19) predict just about anything but.
Stay tuned,
Barry Lynn
Our late December "heat-wave" has arrived and will remain with us for a few more days. It's not really a heat wave; but 11 C does feel a bit warmer than 7 C.
The pleasant weather will turn wet and cold late Shabbat/Sunday as a storm arrives from the west. There is the possibility of wet snow with the rain, but this is just a possibility, and this storm will be more rain than snow, and not be particularly heavy.
Looking farther into our crystal forecast ball, we see the weather remaining cool for a few more days, before the fog of chaos veils our eyes. Yet, there is one brave forecast-soul who would like to plunge us back into winter during the second week of January. He's alone, and he's quite contrary to speak of snow, while the rest of his group (of 19) predict just about anything but.
Stay tuned,
Barry Lynn
Sunday, December 22, 2013
Weather It Is (A Tornado in Efrat)
Good Evening:
My daughter returned to the house shortly before 9 P.M on Monday December 9th.
Shortly thereafter, there was a large boom. In the morning, she wrote to say that the fence in the backyard was broken. Since, it is unlikely that a vandal came and broke the fence, this had to be weather related. Note, the missing fence and the tree (centre) snapped in the middle of the picture.
Small tornadoes can snap trees.
One might think that this was only a very strong downburst, but then why is the damage so localised?
Regarding our weather: we're headed up temperature wise, as I mentioned. The weather will change on the 27th, and rain should arrive on Shabbat or early next week. There is a 10% chance of wet snow with the next event, but (as noted), this storm is approaching from over the sea, so we don't expect a cold snow like we had last week.
Barry Lynn
My daughter returned to the house shortly before 9 P.M on Monday December 9th.
Shortly thereafter, there was a large boom. In the morning, she wrote to say that the fence in the backyard was broken. Since, it is unlikely that a vandal came and broke the fence, this had to be weather related. Note, the missing fence and the tree (centre) snapped in the middle of the picture.
Small tornadoes can snap trees.
One might think that this was only a very strong downburst, but then why is the damage so localised?
Regarding our weather: we're headed up temperature wise, as I mentioned. The weather will change on the 27th, and rain should arrive on Shabbat or early next week. There is a 10% chance of wet snow with the next event, but (as noted), this storm is approaching from over the sea, so we don't expect a cold snow like we had last week.
Barry Lynn
Weather It Is (A Tornado in Efrat?)
Good Evening:
My daughter returned to the house shortly before 9 P.M on Monday December 9th.
Shortly thereafter, there was a large boom. In the morning, she wrote to say that the fence in the backyard was broken. Since, it is unlikely that a vandal came and broke the fence, this had to be weather related. Note, the missing fence and the tree (centre) snapped in the middle of the picture.
Small tornadoes can snap trees.
One might think that this was only a very strong downburst, but then why is the damage so localised?
Regarding our weather: we're headed up temperature wise, as I mentioned. The weather will change on the 27th, and rain should arrive on Shabbat or early next week. There is a 10% chance of wet snow with the next event, but (as noted), this storm is approaching from over the sea, so we don't expect a cold snow like we had last week.
Barry Lynn
My daughter returned to the house shortly before 9 P.M on Monday December 9th.
Shortly thereafter, there was a large boom. In the morning, she wrote to say that the fence in the backyard was broken. Since, it is unlikely that a vandal came and broke the fence, this had to be weather related. Note, the missing fence and the tree (centre) snapped in the middle of the picture.
Small tornadoes can snap trees.
One might think that this was only a very strong downburst, but then why is the damage so localised?
Regarding our weather: we're headed up temperature wise, as I mentioned. The weather will change on the 27th, and rain should arrive on Shabbat or early next week. There is a 10% chance of wet snow with the next event, but (as noted), this storm is approaching from over the sea, so we don't expect a cold snow like we had last week.
Barry Lynn
Saturday, December 21, 2013
Weather It Is (Weather Changes; Please Understand)
Good evening:
Temperatures will be moderating during the next few days, and the mountains of snow will be reduced to small hills.
My mid-week, though, the weather will begin to change, with possibly a shower, some temperature up and downs, and then we should be headed down, as the weather turns wet. At this time, there are a wide range of forecast amounts, depending on the forecast strength of the storm. This storm will be arriving from the west, which means that the air will be moderating as it moves eastward -- so there is only a slight chance of wet snow.
It is hard to write a blog for mixed company. I need to women to understand that I can't always be right, while the men need to appreciate that forecasts can never be 100% accurate.
We all know that men need appreciation, and women need understanding. While it is possible for men to act with understanding (e.g, take out the garbage without being asked), it is very hard for men to express understanding. In fact, unless there is a problem to be solved, men would prefer to keep quiet.
The problem began right before the snow storm when our air conditioning unit broke, and temperatures began to fall both inside the house (upstairs) and out. I did my best to fix the problem: I called the repair man, but (unfortunately) they ran out of parts to change and the upstairs remained in the deep freeze.
This is especially a problem for my wife because she's from Israel and Israelis don't sleep with tucked in sheets. In contrast, holding fast to my traditions, I always sleep tucked in so I was able to generate bubbles of heat under the covers.
After a week plus of cold winter like temperatures, my wife had finally had enough, and I got an ear full. Trying to be on my best behaviour, I said things like: "yes, it's really cold." "Yes, it is really aggravating" (it sounds better in Hebrew).
This went on for about ten minutes, when my wife looked at me, and politely suggested that I wasn't being serious.
This goes to show that those lying in comfort (even in a cold room) should not speak, or perhaps men shouldn't speak unless they really have something to say.
Barry Lynn
Temperatures will be moderating during the next few days, and the mountains of snow will be reduced to small hills.
My mid-week, though, the weather will begin to change, with possibly a shower, some temperature up and downs, and then we should be headed down, as the weather turns wet. At this time, there are a wide range of forecast amounts, depending on the forecast strength of the storm. This storm will be arriving from the west, which means that the air will be moderating as it moves eastward -- so there is only a slight chance of wet snow.
It is hard to write a blog for mixed company. I need to women to understand that I can't always be right, while the men need to appreciate that forecasts can never be 100% accurate.
We all know that men need appreciation, and women need understanding. While it is possible for men to act with understanding (e.g, take out the garbage without being asked), it is very hard for men to express understanding. In fact, unless there is a problem to be solved, men would prefer to keep quiet.
The problem began right before the snow storm when our air conditioning unit broke, and temperatures began to fall both inside the house (upstairs) and out. I did my best to fix the problem: I called the repair man, but (unfortunately) they ran out of parts to change and the upstairs remained in the deep freeze.
This is especially a problem for my wife because she's from Israel and Israelis don't sleep with tucked in sheets. In contrast, holding fast to my traditions, I always sleep tucked in so I was able to generate bubbles of heat under the covers.
After a week plus of cold winter like temperatures, my wife had finally had enough, and I got an ear full. Trying to be on my best behaviour, I said things like: "yes, it's really cold." "Yes, it is really aggravating" (it sounds better in Hebrew).
This went on for about ten minutes, when my wife looked at me, and politely suggested that I wasn't being serious.
This goes to show that those lying in comfort (even in a cold room) should not speak, or perhaps men shouldn't speak unless they really have something to say.
Barry Lynn
Thursday, December 19, 2013
Weather It Is (Frozen and Icy Roads)
Good Evening:
Subject: icy roads.
The temperatures have warmed a bit, but there is still plenty of snow in the higher elevations.
The snow radiates heat quite well, cooling, which then cools the overlying air.
Tonight we're predicting a couple of degrees above freezing. So, why are roads freezing and why will there be wet patches that are really ice when we wake in the morning?
The reason is two fold: first, the surface cools more than the air temperature, and second, the dew point (or air humidity) is very low. The dew point is the atmospheric temperature (varying according to pressure and humidity) below which water droplets begin to condense and dew can form. For us, it means that water from the roads will evaporate, and when they do, they will use energy and cool the surface. Eventually, enough water molecules (yes, it is the combined efforts of many) evaporate that any standing water freezes.
I don't expect this too happen too early in the evening, but sometime in the dark of night, when most of us are already tucked in bed, icy patches will form, and the roads in these areas will become extremely dangerous to drive on, or even walk.
Now, here's the worst of it all: today was a bit warmer during the day than yesterday, so there is a lot of water on the roads. Moreover, the sun is late to rise, so the ice will be late to melt. Perhaps, those in high places we should consider to take the day off the already short day of school?
Looking ahead, temperatures will hold steady for a few days and then head sharply upwards mid-next week, before falling off. There is a 40% chance of rain to end the new year, with only a very small chance of any frozen precipitation.
Barry Lynn
Subject: icy roads.
The temperatures have warmed a bit, but there is still plenty of snow in the higher elevations.
The snow radiates heat quite well, cooling, which then cools the overlying air.
Tonight we're predicting a couple of degrees above freezing. So, why are roads freezing and why will there be wet patches that are really ice when we wake in the morning?
The reason is two fold: first, the surface cools more than the air temperature, and second, the dew point (or air humidity) is very low. The dew point is the atmospheric temperature (varying according to pressure and humidity) below which water droplets begin to condense and dew can form. For us, it means that water from the roads will evaporate, and when they do, they will use energy and cool the surface. Eventually, enough water molecules (yes, it is the combined efforts of many) evaporate that any standing water freezes.
I don't expect this too happen too early in the evening, but sometime in the dark of night, when most of us are already tucked in bed, icy patches will form, and the roads in these areas will become extremely dangerous to drive on, or even walk.
Now, here's the worst of it all: today was a bit warmer during the day than yesterday, so there is a lot of water on the roads. Moreover, the sun is late to rise, so the ice will be late to melt. Perhaps, those in high places we should consider to take the day off the already short day of school?
Looking ahead, temperatures will hold steady for a few days and then head sharply upwards mid-next week, before falling off. There is a 40% chance of rain to end the new year, with only a very small chance of any frozen precipitation.
Barry Lynn
Weather It Is (Up and Down)
Good Morning:
We've still got plenty of snow on the ground, and it is a week after the storm began.
We see no change in the weather for a few days, but then we're going to head up by about 5 degrees, hang there for a day or so, and then head (one might even say "plunge") down, and end up close to where we are now.
However, the next round of more winter like weather has about a 30% chance of bringing rain, and very small chance of some wet snow. There is one forecast (out of 20) that shows substantial amounts of precipitation. It comes with the coldest and wintriest weather. Yet, it is not part of a trend, but just one voice out of many that really don't know what "they" would like say about the weather as we reach the end of this year and head into next's.
Barry Lynn
We've still got plenty of snow on the ground, and it is a week after the storm began.
We see no change in the weather for a few days, but then we're going to head up by about 5 degrees, hang there for a day or so, and then head (one might even say "plunge") down, and end up close to where we are now.
However, the next round of more winter like weather has about a 30% chance of bringing rain, and very small chance of some wet snow. There is one forecast (out of 20) that shows substantial amounts of precipitation. It comes with the coldest and wintriest weather. Yet, it is not part of a trend, but just one voice out of many that really don't know what "they" would like say about the weather as we reach the end of this year and head into next's.
Barry Lynn
Wednesday, December 18, 2013
Weather It Is (Rumors)
Good morning:
The weather is warming up! Warm air will be nosing its way northward from the south. While it won't feel balmy, it will feel warmer. In fact, the weather pattern may look a little bit like spring.
In about a week's time, the forecast becomes less certain. There is a small chance of rain mixed with hail, but more likely will be some rain towards the end of the year.
Looking into the very early new year doesn't show us anything of real interest. In fact, we may end up just back we're at now temperature wise, but with a bit more rain to greet the new year.
As for the rumour of the impending monster of a storm, three times bigger than our current storm? It's exciting to spread the rumour.
Barry Lynn
The weather is warming up! Warm air will be nosing its way northward from the south. While it won't feel balmy, it will feel warmer. In fact, the weather pattern may look a little bit like spring.
In about a week's time, the forecast becomes less certain. There is a small chance of rain mixed with hail, but more likely will be some rain towards the end of the year.
Looking into the very early new year doesn't show us anything of real interest. In fact, we may end up just back we're at now temperature wise, but with a bit more rain to greet the new year.
As for the rumour of the impending monster of a storm, three times bigger than our current storm? It's exciting to spread the rumour.
Barry Lynn
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
Weather It Is (The Weather Matters)
Good Morning:
I can see by the number of people reading the blog and visiting the weather site that the weather is of interest and it does matter -- at least when there is weather of real impact.
Speaking of non-interesting weather, the snow will melt over the next few days and then it will all begin to feel like a distant memory. Temperatures will most likely moderate by at least several degrees, and the skies should be pretty sunny, except for some high clouds during the next few days.
It looks like there will be relatively little to report the rest of this week and next! This should make some happy.
Just a couple of notes: i) we've hopefully fixed the problem in our forecasts that occurred when we forecast surface temperatures over snow. We've changed to a difference atmospheric surface layer model, a more advanced version of an old (apparently more reliable) one. We'll have to see how this goes. ii) Something to note: the wet road freezes under clear skies even if air temperatures are a bit above freezing, because the surface radiates heat into the near surface air. The sun and air temperature can melt the ice, but melting requires heat, which can delay the warming of the roads an hour or two until after the thermometer reads above freezing.
I can see by the number of people reading the blog and visiting the weather site that the weather is of interest and it does matter -- at least when there is weather of real impact.
Speaking of non-interesting weather, the snow will melt over the next few days and then it will all begin to feel like a distant memory. Temperatures will most likely moderate by at least several degrees, and the skies should be pretty sunny, except for some high clouds during the next few days.
It looks like there will be relatively little to report the rest of this week and next! This should make some happy.
Just a couple of notes: i) we've hopefully fixed the problem in our forecasts that occurred when we forecast surface temperatures over snow. We've changed to a difference atmospheric surface layer model, a more advanced version of an old (apparently more reliable) one. We'll have to see how this goes. ii) Something to note: the wet road freezes under clear skies even if air temperatures are a bit above freezing, because the surface radiates heat into the near surface air. The sun and air temperature can melt the ice, but melting requires heat, which can delay the warming of the roads an hour or two until after the thermometer reads above freezing.
Tonight should be a tad warmer than last night, so perhaps we'll get by without a hard freeze. Still, icy locations should persist in some areas.
Barry Lynn
See why no one is driving.
See why no one is driving.
Monday, December 16, 2013
Weather It Is (A Recap and Looking Forward)
Good Morning:
It's Monday December 16th (two days after my Hebrew Birthday and 11 days before my English birthday -- of 50!). I grew up in NY and I remember the big snow storms of 1978 last lasted a day and a half. Ours lasted 3 days (with a break during the day on Friday to prepare for Shabbat). It was hard to measure the snow exactly, but here in Efrat we had 10 cm on Thursday, cm inches on Thursday night, and 41 cm Friday night into Shabbat morning (for a total of 66 cm). This works out to about two feet of snow, exceeding by a bit the big storms that I remember from when I was just 15 years old.
Folks say that this storm was as large as or even larger than the ones they remember from 1992, but they also say that back then (when their fathers walked up-hill both ways to school in the freezing cold) that the cold lasted two weeks.
I measured 187.5 mm of rain in the gauge (which is 12 inches in length). This fell from Wednesday the 6th until the night of the 11th of December. I just melted down one gauge full of snow: it came out to another 87.5 mm. The snow was a bit compact, having sat on the ground for a day or two, so it is hard to know whether I should double this amount (to arrive at 2 feed) to account for the first snow we had that was compacted over the first two days (in retrospect, I probably should have). So, lets say that we had at least 275 mm of liquid equivalent precipitation, and possibly as much 350 mm.
These amounts (from one storm!) are at least half the winter's "normal" (annual) amount!!!
The temperatures have dropped to freezing again, and we're frozen in -- still waiting for the roads to be cleared. The more snow there is, the harder it is to clear -- it has to be moved and lifted. Yesterday, it took about half a day to melt the snow in my gauge, even though it was indoors at 70 F. Yesterday, it reached only into the low 40s. Yes, the snow will probably disappear over time, and yet, I want to bring to your attention another mechanism for "melting" the snow: it is called sublimation (my wife pointed it out), and you can see the snow evaporating (without melting first) into the dry air just off our porch. It occurs when the sun heats the snow.
Considering that we are very close to the shortest day of the year (The winter "Solstice"), this snow (unlike late January or February storms) won't be in a hurry to sublimate. Hence, we'll have to wait for rain to melt the snow (or just warm temperatures). Temperatures should indeed moderate to more normal levels during the next week or so (and perhaps even above normal).
Speaking of rain, an upper air disturbance should approach in a couple of days, but it will bring only clouds. Looking head to the end of next week, some light rain is possible as temperatures should remain relatively mild.
In other words, after having had half of winter in a week, we're going to take a break.
Barry Lynn
It's Monday December 16th (two days after my Hebrew Birthday and 11 days before my English birthday -- of 50!). I grew up in NY and I remember the big snow storms of 1978 last lasted a day and a half. Ours lasted 3 days (with a break during the day on Friday to prepare for Shabbat). It was hard to measure the snow exactly, but here in Efrat we had 10 cm on Thursday, cm inches on Thursday night, and 41 cm Friday night into Shabbat morning (for a total of 66 cm). This works out to about two feet of snow, exceeding by a bit the big storms that I remember from when I was just 15 years old.
Folks say that this storm was as large as or even larger than the ones they remember from 1992, but they also say that back then (when their fathers walked up-hill both ways to school in the freezing cold) that the cold lasted two weeks.
I measured 187.5 mm of rain in the gauge (which is 12 inches in length). This fell from Wednesday the 6th until the night of the 11th of December. I just melted down one gauge full of snow: it came out to another 87.5 mm. The snow was a bit compact, having sat on the ground for a day or two, so it is hard to know whether I should double this amount (to arrive at 2 feed) to account for the first snow we had that was compacted over the first two days (in retrospect, I probably should have). So, lets say that we had at least 275 mm of liquid equivalent precipitation, and possibly as much 350 mm.
These amounts (from one storm!) are at least half the winter's "normal" (annual) amount!!!
The temperatures have dropped to freezing again, and we're frozen in -- still waiting for the roads to be cleared. The more snow there is, the harder it is to clear -- it has to be moved and lifted. Yesterday, it took about half a day to melt the snow in my gauge, even though it was indoors at 70 F. Yesterday, it reached only into the low 40s. Yes, the snow will probably disappear over time, and yet, I want to bring to your attention another mechanism for "melting" the snow: it is called sublimation (my wife pointed it out), and you can see the snow evaporating (without melting first) into the dry air just off our porch. It occurs when the sun heats the snow.
Considering that we are very close to the shortest day of the year (The winter "Solstice"), this snow (unlike late January or February storms) won't be in a hurry to sublimate. Hence, we'll have to wait for rain to melt the snow (or just warm temperatures). Temperatures should indeed moderate to more normal levels during the next week or so (and perhaps even above normal).
Speaking of rain, an upper air disturbance should approach in a couple of days, but it will bring only clouds. Looking head to the end of next week, some light rain is possible as temperatures should remain relatively mild.
In other words, after having had half of winter in a week, we're going to take a break.
Barry Lynn
Friday, December 13, 2013
Weather It Is (Winds Should Change…)
Good Afternoon:
We're expecting the winds to change from the Southwest to a more Northwesterly direction. As this happens during the afternoon, snow should redevelop over the central mountains and in the area of Sefat.
The storm should peak tonight, and taper off tomorrow morning. Snow amounts should be greater than 10 cm in the central mountains, with as much as 25 cm possible. In the area of Sefat, the amounts should be around 10 cm.
The weather will moderate following the storm (but not warm up). Next week may bring rain, with a small possibility of snow (at the moment) as well.
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
We're expecting the winds to change from the Southwest to a more Northwesterly direction. As this happens during the afternoon, snow should redevelop over the central mountains and in the area of Sefat.
The storm should peak tonight, and taper off tomorrow morning. Snow amounts should be greater than 10 cm in the central mountains, with as much as 25 cm possible. In the area of Sefat, the amounts should be around 10 cm.
The weather will moderate following the storm (but not warm up). Next week may bring rain, with a small possibility of snow (at the moment) as well.
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
Thursday, December 12, 2013
Weather It Is (Heavy Snow Warning)
Good Evening:
The cold weather came in as forecast (Thank God), and turned the rain to snow in the higher elevations of the Galilee, Jerusalem, and Gush Etzion by early Thursday morning. The cold will deepen tonight over the northeastern Mediterranean sea and the upper level trough (at 500 mb) will then move slowly southeastward during the day. As it does so, temperatures will drop at upper levels here, and this will strengthen a low pressure at the surface that will should bury today's snow under an even heavier snowfall late Friday and Friday night.
Between 50 to 100 mm of precipitation amounts are forecast for the central coast and central mountains. Lesser amounts of precipitation will occur over the north and south, but still potentially cause flooding in low lying areas.
Most importantly, with the cold entrenched, this just might translate into greater than 50 cm of snow in the central mountains. One might expect that the warm sea might hold down snow amounts by warming the lower atmosphere. However, the cold is deep enough to take advantage of the copious amounts of moisture evaporating off the warm sea, transported upwards into the atmosphere and deposited as snow over the mountains. So, this is an unusual situation: we have the precipitation amounts of an early season storm, but the cold of January.
The timeline and a couple of notes. Snow will be heavy at times tonight and tomorrow morning, accumulating around 25 cm by mid-day Friday. Late in the afternoon, the snow will become even heavier, with possible white-out conditions, and accumulate between 25 and 50 cm more by Saturday morning.
The snow will taper off during the day, and the storm will be gone by Sunday, and be followed by a period of more tranquil weather.
Note 1: We're investigating some predictions for unusually cold temperatures. This is happening in areas covered with snow, but we don't think it realistic.
Note 2: My daughter would like some credit for the snow. She asked me a few weeks ago if it could snow at Chanukah. I said it could, but it wasn't likely (as Chanukah this year was rather early in the season). Sometimes, to succeed, one must simply ask a questions.
Barry Lynn
The cold weather came in as forecast (Thank God), and turned the rain to snow in the higher elevations of the Galilee, Jerusalem, and Gush Etzion by early Thursday morning. The cold will deepen tonight over the northeastern Mediterranean sea and the upper level trough (at 500 mb) will then move slowly southeastward during the day. As it does so, temperatures will drop at upper levels here, and this will strengthen a low pressure at the surface that will should bury today's snow under an even heavier snowfall late Friday and Friday night.
Between 50 to 100 mm of precipitation amounts are forecast for the central coast and central mountains. Lesser amounts of precipitation will occur over the north and south, but still potentially cause flooding in low lying areas.
Most importantly, with the cold entrenched, this just might translate into greater than 50 cm of snow in the central mountains. One might expect that the warm sea might hold down snow amounts by warming the lower atmosphere. However, the cold is deep enough to take advantage of the copious amounts of moisture evaporating off the warm sea, transported upwards into the atmosphere and deposited as snow over the mountains. So, this is an unusual situation: we have the precipitation amounts of an early season storm, but the cold of January.
The timeline and a couple of notes. Snow will be heavy at times tonight and tomorrow morning, accumulating around 25 cm by mid-day Friday. Late in the afternoon, the snow will become even heavier, with possible white-out conditions, and accumulate between 25 and 50 cm more by Saturday morning.
The snow will taper off during the day, and the storm will be gone by Sunday, and be followed by a period of more tranquil weather.
Note 1: We're investigating some predictions for unusually cold temperatures. This is happening in areas covered with snow, but we don't think it realistic.
Note 2: My daughter would like some credit for the snow. She asked me a few weeks ago if it could snow at Chanukah. I said it could, but it wasn't likely (as Chanukah this year was rather early in the season). Sometimes, to succeed, one must simply ask a questions.
Barry Lynn
Weather It Is (No Change)
The winter part of our storm is arriving now (midnight and on), and will turn rain to snow in the higher elevations.
The storm's impact should last into Shabbat, with potentially very heavy snow again late Friday and Friday night.
It will be cold, windy, and wet -- don't be caught out without proper clothing for the cold.
Barry Lynn
The storm's impact should last into Shabbat, with potentially very heavy snow again late Friday and Friday night.
It will be cold, windy, and wet -- don't be caught out without proper clothing for the cold.
Barry Lynn
Wednesday, December 11, 2013
Weather It Is (Update on Winter Storm)
Latest forecast guidance suggests that snow should start in Jerusalem and Gush Etzion during the night, and probably accumulate in both areas by morning. We'll up the snow amounts to 5-10 cm in Jerusalem by evening, and 10-15 cm in Gush Etzion.
Good Afternoon:
It seems like January, but it is only early December. We've spoken so much about this storm that there is not very much we can add.
However, the latest forecast brings a changeover towards snow late at night, with the possibility of a slushy accumulation towards morning, especially in high elevations (like Gush Etzion).
Temperatures drop during the day on Thursday, will will turn the wet snow to a drier snow. The first shot of really cold air peaks during the night towards Friday morning. This is when a fluffy, dry snow could accumulate substantially.
A second period of snow moves in late Friday, and precipitation (mostly snow) from this system should continue into late in the day.
We're quite certain about the cold temperatures. However, predicting actual snow amounts is tricky because a variation in temperature of 1 C (both at the surface and aloft) can make a difference. Here is our best estimate of the totals.
Jerusalem:
Wednesday night (a trace)
Thursday 2-5 cm
Thursday night into Friday 10-25 cm
Friday night into Shabbat 25-50 cm
Gush Etzion
Wednesday Night 1 - 2 cm
Thursday 5-10 cm
Thursday Night into Friday 10-25 cm
Friday Night into Shabbat 25-50 cm.
Sefad:
(Temperatures are near freezing, so we're having trouble estimating)
Wednesday Night (a trace)
Thursday 5-10 cm, depending on elevation
Thursday Night into Friday; Possibility for heavy snow.
Friday Night into Shabbat: heavy snow.
Good Afternoon:
It seems like January, but it is only early December. We've spoken so much about this storm that there is not very much we can add.
However, the latest forecast brings a changeover towards snow late at night, with the possibility of a slushy accumulation towards morning, especially in high elevations (like Gush Etzion).
Temperatures drop during the day on Thursday, will will turn the wet snow to a drier snow. The first shot of really cold air peaks during the night towards Friday morning. This is when a fluffy, dry snow could accumulate substantially.
A second period of snow moves in late Friday, and precipitation (mostly snow) from this system should continue into late in the day.
We're quite certain about the cold temperatures. However, predicting actual snow amounts is tricky because a variation in temperature of 1 C (both at the surface and aloft) can make a difference. Here is our best estimate of the totals.
Jerusalem:
Wednesday night (a trace)
Thursday 2-5 cm
Thursday night into Friday 10-25 cm
Friday night into Shabbat 25-50 cm
Gush Etzion
Wednesday Night 1 - 2 cm
Thursday 5-10 cm
Thursday Night into Friday 10-25 cm
Friday Night into Shabbat 25-50 cm.
Sefad:
(Temperatures are near freezing, so we're having trouble estimating)
Wednesday Night (a trace)
Thursday 5-10 cm, depending on elevation
Thursday Night into Friday; Possibility for heavy snow.
Friday Night into Shabbat: heavy snow.
Weather It Is (Winter Storm/Weather Warning)
Good Afternoon:
It seems like January, but it is only early December. We've spoken so much about this storm that there is not very much we can add.
However, the latest forecast brings a changeover towards snow late at night, with the possibility of a slushy accumulation towards morning, especially in high elevations (like Gush Etzion).
Temperatures drop during the day on Thursday, will will turn the wet snow to a drier snow. The first shot of really cold air peaks during the night towards Friday morning. This is when a fluffy, dry snow could accumulate substantially.
A second period of snow moves in late Friday, and precipitation (mostly snow) from this system should continue into late in the day.
We're quite certain about the cold temperatures. However, predicting actual snow amounts is tricky because a variation in temperature of 1 C (both at the surface and aloft) can make a difference. Here is our best estimate of the totals.
Jerusalem:
Wednesday night (a trace)
Thursday 2-5 cm
Thursday night into Friday 10-25 cm
Friday night into Shabbat 25-50 cm
Gush Etzion
Wednesday Night 1 - 2 cm
Thursday 5-10 cm
Thursday Night into Friday 10-25 cm
Friday Night into Shabbat 25-50 cm.
Sefad:
(Temperatures are near freezing, so we're having trouble estimating)
Wednesday Night (a trace)
Thursday 5-10 cm, depending on elevation
Thursday Night into Friday; Possibility for heavy snow.
Friday Night into Shabbat: heavy snow.
It seems like January, but it is only early December. We've spoken so much about this storm that there is not very much we can add.
However, the latest forecast brings a changeover towards snow late at night, with the possibility of a slushy accumulation towards morning, especially in high elevations (like Gush Etzion).
Temperatures drop during the day on Thursday, will will turn the wet snow to a drier snow. The first shot of really cold air peaks during the night towards Friday morning. This is when a fluffy, dry snow could accumulate substantially.
A second period of snow moves in late Friday, and precipitation (mostly snow) from this system should continue into late in the day.
We're quite certain about the cold temperatures. However, predicting actual snow amounts is tricky because a variation in temperature of 1 C (both at the surface and aloft) can make a difference. Here is our best estimate of the totals.
Jerusalem:
Wednesday night (a trace)
Thursday 2-5 cm
Thursday night into Friday 10-25 cm
Friday night into Shabbat 25-50 cm
Gush Etzion
Wednesday Night 1 - 2 cm
Thursday 5-10 cm
Thursday Night into Friday 10-25 cm
Friday Night into Shabbat 25-50 cm.
Sefad:
(Temperatures are near freezing, so we're having trouble estimating)
Wednesday Night (a trace)
Thursday 5-10 cm, depending on elevation
Thursday Night into Friday; Possibility for heavy snow.
Friday Night into Shabbat: heavy snow.
Weather It Is (Winter Weather/Storm Warning)
An early good morning:
We're on track for a major winter storm to impact our area during the next few days.
Snow becomes possible in the mountain areas when the near-surface temperatures (850 mb), lower- levels (700 mb), and mid-levels (500 mb) are colder than -1 C, -10 C, and -25 C, respectively. Temperatures in the mountains will fall rapidly Wednesday night. Temperatures will become "critical" for a change over to snow as morning approaches. These critical temperatures will be reached around 8 in morning on Thursday.
We expect wet snow to accumulate by sometime around noon on Thursday as temperatures at the previously mentioned atmospheric levels continue to drop. The snow should then transition to a dry snow Thursday night as temperatures at 700 mb reach close to -12 C, and at 500 mb to about -30 C. Temperatures will be as low as -13 C and -32 C at 700 mb, and 500 mb, respectively by mid-day Friday, very conducive to a dry, accumulating snow.
The latest (18 GMT) GFS forecast is indicating heavy precipitation in the central mounts Thursday night into Friday, but our on-line forecast shows a break at night. Considering that there is a strong consensus from the 18 GMT ensemble that the storm's lowest temperatures will occur at all levels Thursday night into Friday morning, we lean towards the snow continuing into Friday (and this may be reflected in the next weekly forecast update to appear on the site).
There is about an 80% chance that temperatures will remain cool enough for more snow, which will continue until late Shabbat day, and we are expecting additional high precipitation amounts late Friday into late Saturday (Shabbat).
This is a very dangerous storm, with high winds, and heavy rain at lower levels, and snow at higher elevations. Don't plan to travel in areas of snow, and be careful of wet roads, and blown objects or falling trees at lower elevations.
The following week may see another storm, but there is no consensus yet.
Barry Lynn
We're on track for a major winter storm to impact our area during the next few days.
Snow becomes possible in the mountain areas when the near-surface temperatures (850 mb), lower- levels (700 mb), and mid-levels (500 mb) are colder than -1 C, -10 C, and -25 C, respectively. Temperatures in the mountains will fall rapidly Wednesday night. Temperatures will become "critical" for a change over to snow as morning approaches. These critical temperatures will be reached around 8 in morning on Thursday.
We expect wet snow to accumulate by sometime around noon on Thursday as temperatures at the previously mentioned atmospheric levels continue to drop. The snow should then transition to a dry snow Thursday night as temperatures at 700 mb reach close to -12 C, and at 500 mb to about -30 C. Temperatures will be as low as -13 C and -32 C at 700 mb, and 500 mb, respectively by mid-day Friday, very conducive to a dry, accumulating snow.
The latest (18 GMT) GFS forecast is indicating heavy precipitation in the central mounts Thursday night into Friday, but our on-line forecast shows a break at night. Considering that there is a strong consensus from the 18 GMT ensemble that the storm's lowest temperatures will occur at all levels Thursday night into Friday morning, we lean towards the snow continuing into Friday (and this may be reflected in the next weekly forecast update to appear on the site).
There is about an 80% chance that temperatures will remain cool enough for more snow, which will continue until late Shabbat day, and we are expecting additional high precipitation amounts late Friday into late Saturday (Shabbat).
This is a very dangerous storm, with high winds, and heavy rain at lower levels, and snow at higher elevations. Don't plan to travel in areas of snow, and be careful of wet roads, and blown objects or falling trees at lower elevations.
The following week may see another storm, but there is no consensus yet.
Barry Lynn
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
Weather It Is (A Winter Blast)
Good Evening:
The latest update (18 UTC 9 December 2013) strongly indicates that the cold air will come in sooner than in previous forecasts, and last longer than previous forecasts. Basically the smaller probabilities that the cold air would arrive by early Thursday morning have become large probabilities. The relatively small probability that the first storm would be followed by another storm on Shabbat has become a large probability.
The coldest air is certainly (and still) suppose to arrive towards Thursday evening, and this should transition the snow to a dry, accumulating snow. Yet, rain may change over to wet snow early Thursday morning and accumulate during the day. The snow should accumulate quite substantially Thursday night, into Friday. There may transition into light snow of flurries late Friday, only to return more heavily on Shabbat.
This is a major and dangerous winter storm that should be proceeded on Wednesday by heavy rain and strong winds, with thunderstorms, and possibly hail. Snow levels should lower (at least by nightfall) into the Jerusalem area and accumulate their as well. The greatest snow amounts will likely be in Gush Etzion and the Galilee hills, not to mention the Golan.
After this storms, we are seeing an indication of another cold winter storm the following week; we're looking at a 20% chance now that another winter storm will follow next week as well.
I realise that we're only at late Monday, but the ensemble is indicating very high probabilities that winter will make one of its earliest snowy entrances in years.
Barry Lynn
The latest update (18 UTC 9 December 2013) strongly indicates that the cold air will come in sooner than in previous forecasts, and last longer than previous forecasts. Basically the smaller probabilities that the cold air would arrive by early Thursday morning have become large probabilities. The relatively small probability that the first storm would be followed by another storm on Shabbat has become a large probability.
The coldest air is certainly (and still) suppose to arrive towards Thursday evening, and this should transition the snow to a dry, accumulating snow. Yet, rain may change over to wet snow early Thursday morning and accumulate during the day. The snow should accumulate quite substantially Thursday night, into Friday. There may transition into light snow of flurries late Friday, only to return more heavily on Shabbat.
This is a major and dangerous winter storm that should be proceeded on Wednesday by heavy rain and strong winds, with thunderstorms, and possibly hail. Snow levels should lower (at least by nightfall) into the Jerusalem area and accumulate their as well. The greatest snow amounts will likely be in Gush Etzion and the Galilee hills, not to mention the Golan.
After this storms, we are seeing an indication of another cold winter storm the following week; we're looking at a 20% chance now that another winter storm will follow next week as well.
I realise that we're only at late Monday, but the ensemble is indicating very high probabilities that winter will make one of its earliest snowy entrances in years.
Barry Lynn
Sunday, December 8, 2013
Weather It Is (Winter Storm)
Good Evening:
It's certainly the coldest and largest storm to impact our area this winter, and it rivals (or even supersedes in some ways) the storm of January 2013 - and it is only early December.
Today, we're feeling the second stage of this storm with heavy rain producing flooding rain.
The bulk of the cold, arctic air will begin its plunge southward on Wednesday, and bring heavy, heavy rain with strong winds (snow on the Hermon). On Thursday, temperatures should drop quickly during the day and then drop even more at night. Snow should reach into the central mountains and other mountain tops throughout the country.
There is (and will always be) some uncertainty about snow amounts, but the coldest air at upper levels should arrive late in the day, and there could be a reinforcing shot of cold air Friday night into Shabbat. This is when wet snow is more likely to become a drier more accumulating snow (but roads can still turn icy during the day on Thursday).
The forecast continues to evolve, and right now we're looking at a 75% probability that the winter event will be just what we're calling for -- a storm to rival last year's snow event, or even more.
Barry Lynn
It's certainly the coldest and largest storm to impact our area this winter, and it rivals (or even supersedes in some ways) the storm of January 2013 - and it is only early December.
Today, we're feeling the second stage of this storm with heavy rain producing flooding rain.
The bulk of the cold, arctic air will begin its plunge southward on Wednesday, and bring heavy, heavy rain with strong winds (snow on the Hermon). On Thursday, temperatures should drop quickly during the day and then drop even more at night. Snow should reach into the central mountains and other mountain tops throughout the country.
There is (and will always be) some uncertainty about snow amounts, but the coldest air at upper levels should arrive late in the day, and there could be a reinforcing shot of cold air Friday night into Shabbat. This is when wet snow is more likely to become a drier more accumulating snow (but roads can still turn icy during the day on Thursday).
The forecast continues to evolve, and right now we're looking at a 75% probability that the winter event will be just what we're calling for -- a storm to rival last year's snow event, or even more.
Barry Lynn
Weather It Is (Winter's Break)
Good Morning:
What a difference a week makes. We were moving along day to day without any rain or any particularly cold weather, and this seemed to change in an instance.
Actually, we saw signs of the change about a week or so prior, and the high clouds of early last week were the harbinger of the change that would occur by mid-week.
In one sense, there is a lot certainty. It is going to get colder, and today's rain will be replaced my mid-week by an even heavier rain and even colder temperatures. We're certain about the cold, but we can't be certain yet about how much snow will fall and stick (as if we are ever certain about the "stick" part in the Jerusalem area and higher mountains of the Galilee). Yet, it does appear that temperatures should be cold enough for wet snow sometime on Thursday, and that the greatest likelihood for a drier and accumulating snow if for the afternoon (and especially at night).
We'll have to wait until the day before to really see these details more clearly.
How is this unusually cold air consistent with the "global warming?" Think of the onset of winter as a battle between the winds of summer/fall and the unsettled (and wavy) pattern of winter. The warmer the temperatures in the lower latitudes the stronger the blocking patter for the onset of winter. However, once the winter breaks, it breaks more deeply like water flowing through a broken dam (the wave pattern of the trough is deeper). The amount of cold also depends on just how the winter pattern enters our area. Right now, it is suppose to enter from the north, which reduces the sea's influence on warming of the lower atmosphere. At the same time, as the system retrogrades over the sea, the sea is still quite warm, so moisture will flow into the system, spinning up an unusually potent storm.
Barry Lynn
What a difference a week makes. We were moving along day to day without any rain or any particularly cold weather, and this seemed to change in an instance.
Actually, we saw signs of the change about a week or so prior, and the high clouds of early last week were the harbinger of the change that would occur by mid-week.
In one sense, there is a lot certainty. It is going to get colder, and today's rain will be replaced my mid-week by an even heavier rain and even colder temperatures. We're certain about the cold, but we can't be certain yet about how much snow will fall and stick (as if we are ever certain about the "stick" part in the Jerusalem area and higher mountains of the Galilee). Yet, it does appear that temperatures should be cold enough for wet snow sometime on Thursday, and that the greatest likelihood for a drier and accumulating snow if for the afternoon (and especially at night).
We'll have to wait until the day before to really see these details more clearly.
How is this unusually cold air consistent with the "global warming?" Think of the onset of winter as a battle between the winds of summer/fall and the unsettled (and wavy) pattern of winter. The warmer the temperatures in the lower latitudes the stronger the blocking patter for the onset of winter. However, once the winter breaks, it breaks more deeply like water flowing through a broken dam (the wave pattern of the trough is deeper). The amount of cold also depends on just how the winter pattern enters our area. Right now, it is suppose to enter from the north, which reduces the sea's influence on warming of the lower atmosphere. At the same time, as the system retrogrades over the sea, the sea is still quite warm, so moisture will flow into the system, spinning up an unusually potent storm.
Barry Lynn
Friday, December 6, 2013
Weather It Is (The Drama Deepens)
Good (late) afternoon:
A brief note. The forecast is trending towards colder and wetter, with almost 70% of the ensemble members indicating the likelihood of frozen precipitation (most likely wet snow changing to a drier and colder snow) late Thursday into Shabbat.
We'll (hopefully) know with greater certainty after Shabbat.
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
A brief note. The forecast is trending towards colder and wetter, with almost 70% of the ensemble members indicating the likelihood of frozen precipitation (most likely wet snow changing to a drier and colder snow) late Thursday into Shabbat.
We'll (hopefully) know with greater certainty after Shabbat.
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
Thursday, December 5, 2013
Weather It Is (Winter Continues, And A Storm BrewsGood Evening: Cold air moving in with the first winter storm will move by and be replaced by a slightly warmer air mass (but very unlike the warmth of just a couple days ago). Another shot of cold winter air will arrive early next week, and bring another bout of rain. Then, all eyes will turn to the storm that could sweep down from the north and then amplify a larger and ferocious storm just off the Mediterranean coast. Our ensemble is showing a 50% chance of this happening from mid-week onwards, and the storm could potentially last several days. What do we mean by a 50% chance? We mean that in any winter with a similar weather pattern a very stormy and potentially snowy weather pattern should develop half the time. So stay tuned! Barry Lynn)
Good Evening:
Cold air moving in with the first winter storm will move by and be replaced by a slightly warmer air mass (but very unlike the warmth of just a couple days ago). Another shot of cold winter air will arrive early next week, and bring another bout of rain.
Then, all eyes will turn to the storm that could sweep down from the north and then amplify a larger and ferocious storm just off the Mediterranean coast. Our ensemble is showing a 50% chance of this happening from mid-week onwards, and the storm could potentially last several days.
What do we mean by a 50% chance? We mean that in any winter with a similar weather pattern a very stormy and potentially snowy weather pattern should develop half the time. So stay tuned!
Barry Lynn
Cold air moving in with the first winter storm will move by and be replaced by a slightly warmer air mass (but very unlike the warmth of just a couple days ago). Another shot of cold winter air will arrive early next week, and bring another bout of rain.
Then, all eyes will turn to the storm that could sweep down from the north and then amplify a larger and ferocious storm just off the Mediterranean coast. Our ensemble is showing a 50% chance of this happening from mid-week onwards, and the storm could potentially last several days.
What do we mean by a 50% chance? We mean that in any winter with a similar weather pattern a very stormy and potentially snowy weather pattern should develop half the time. So stay tuned!
Barry Lynn
Wednesday, December 4, 2013
Weather It Is (Winter Has Arrived)
Good Afternoon:
After a few days of anticipation, winter has arrived. Rain showers have dotted the country, and rain intensities should pick up quite substantially as we head into tonight and tomorrow.
The stormy pattern will continue throughout next week, and there is still the potential for snow towards the end of next week.
Speaking of potential, what we're really speaking about is probabilities. For several days, snow was possible at the start of the week, but the 30% probability transitioned into just rain. Right now, there is a 40% possibility that of snow late next week.
Drive carefully on wet roads!
Happy Chanukah,
Barry Lynn
After a few days of anticipation, winter has arrived. Rain showers have dotted the country, and rain intensities should pick up quite substantially as we head into tonight and tomorrow.
The stormy pattern will continue throughout next week, and there is still the potential for snow towards the end of next week.
Speaking of potential, what we're really speaking about is probabilities. For several days, snow was possible at the start of the week, but the 30% probability transitioned into just rain. Right now, there is a 40% possibility that of snow late next week.
Drive carefully on wet roads!
Happy Chanukah,
Barry Lynn
Monday, December 2, 2013
Weather It Is (Will Sleigh Bells Ring?)
Good Evening.
The weather has certainly been strange; in fact, we've had one of the driest winters on record
(http://www.timesofisrael.com/so-far-israel-experiencing-driest-winter-in-70-years/). Yet, winter will soon enter stage left, and enter with a vengeance.
Despite the warmth, my daughter asked me the other day if it could snow during Chanukah. Some kids ask their fathers why is the sky blue (not at night) or if the world is really round (not when you go to the beach), but I get asked: "will it snow?"
We know with high confidence that it will get very cold and we know that the drought should end. What we don't know is if the drought will end with an exclamation point, or if it will snow.
As of the 6 GMT forecast (1/12/2013), we can see that there is a 25% chance of a real snow -- even this early in the season. The problem is that we all have high hopes, but when push comes to shove, the probabilities are what they are, and they are going to have to change. For instance, in the next few days, we might go from a 25% chance of snow to near 100% chance, or we may go to a zero percent chance. The interesting thing is that the snow chances and extreme cold have been pretty constant for the last few days, so what ever signal the GFS ensemble is picking up is pretty consistent from run to run and a pretty significant one.
Who knows what will be tomorrow morning -- you can look on our site under GEFS forecast. Check out the 850 mb temperatures and see if they are below freezing, at least by a couple of degrees.
Happy Chanukah,
Barry Lynn
The weather has certainly been strange; in fact, we've had one of the driest winters on record
(http://www.timesofisrael.com/so-far-israel-experiencing-driest-winter-in-70-years/). Yet, winter will soon enter stage left, and enter with a vengeance.
Despite the warmth, my daughter asked me the other day if it could snow during Chanukah. Some kids ask their fathers why is the sky blue (not at night) or if the world is really round (not when you go to the beach), but I get asked: "will it snow?"
We know with high confidence that it will get very cold and we know that the drought should end. What we don't know is if the drought will end with an exclamation point, or if it will snow.
As of the 6 GMT forecast (1/12/2013), we can see that there is a 25% chance of a real snow -- even this early in the season. The problem is that we all have high hopes, but when push comes to shove, the probabilities are what they are, and they are going to have to change. For instance, in the next few days, we might go from a 25% chance of snow to near 100% chance, or we may go to a zero percent chance. The interesting thing is that the snow chances and extreme cold have been pretty constant for the last few days, so what ever signal the GFS ensemble is picking up is pretty consistent from run to run and a pretty significant one.
Who knows what will be tomorrow morning -- you can look on our site under GEFS forecast. Check out the 850 mb temperatures and see if they are below freezing, at least by a couple of degrees.
Happy Chanukah,
Barry Lynn
Sunday, December 1, 2013
Weather It Is (A Couple of Days)
Good morning:
The cold and rainy weather is coming, but we'll still have a couple of days before we really begin to feel that the weather is changing. Of course, we might notice the high clouds out ahead of the approaching system…
We're getting indications that this will be a two part storm, with the first batch of rain rain followed by even colder and wetter weather. We're still seeing the potential for snow late in the week or early next week, but this is just a small chance.
You can see from the 850 mb temperature forecast the huge drop in temperatures as we move past the first couple of days of the forecast. You can see that some of the ensemble members are even forecasting temperatures similar to those we experienced last January.
The forecast precipitation amounts reflect this winter scenario.
(These forecasts can be seen under the GEFS forecast link.)
Happy Chanukah.
Saturday, November 30, 2013
Weather It Is (Watch Out!)
Good Evening
While it may be true that it is unusual for Israelis to agree among themselves, the Israel weather forecast can sometime reach a consensus.
The last and most important time was the week before the big snow.
Well (folks), we've reached consensus again (or at least the Global Forecast Ensemble has).
The weather is going to turn colder, and it is going to turn colder still. The temperatures should fall by at least 10 degrees Celsius from tomorrow into mid-week. All ensemble members are indicating rain across the country; however, the total amounts are still uncertain.
Looking into next week, most of the ensemble members indicate a continuation of the winter cold. However, a few members indicate that the cold will deepen, and produce our first snow -- which would be a very early snowfall! As mentioned previously, this is climatologically unlikely, but the cold and rain are a very high probability (God willing, as someone in the Synaogogue today said).
Barry Lynn
While it may be true that it is unusual for Israelis to agree among themselves, the Israel weather forecast can sometime reach a consensus.
The last and most important time was the week before the big snow.
Well (folks), we've reached consensus again (or at least the Global Forecast Ensemble has).
The weather is going to turn colder, and it is going to turn colder still. The temperatures should fall by at least 10 degrees Celsius from tomorrow into mid-week. All ensemble members are indicating rain across the country; however, the total amounts are still uncertain.
Looking into next week, most of the ensemble members indicate a continuation of the winter cold. However, a few members indicate that the cold will deepen, and produce our first snow -- which would be a very early snowfall! As mentioned previously, this is climatologically unlikely, but the cold and rain are a very high probability (God willing, as someone in the Synaogogue today said).
Barry Lynn
Tuesday, November 26, 2013
Weather It Is (So Long, Good Bye)
Good Evening:
Oh what a beautiful day it was. In fact, I heard a few: "it's hot out there."
Well, this weather is going, going, and will soon be gone. Temperatures will drop by about 10 degrees or so by end of the week, and showers will dot the landscape as winter makes an entrance.
During Chanukah, temperatures will moderate a bit, but all ensemble members are predicting that the holiday will end with a more significant winter blast, with the potential (but not certainty) of heavy rain.
Interestingly, a few ensemble members are predicting the potential for a very early season snow. Given the calendar date, we should expect these snow possibilities to melt away as we approach the actual event.
Happy Chanukah!
Barry Lynn
Oh what a beautiful day it was. In fact, I heard a few: "it's hot out there."
Well, this weather is going, going, and will soon be gone. Temperatures will drop by about 10 degrees or so by end of the week, and showers will dot the landscape as winter makes an entrance.
During Chanukah, temperatures will moderate a bit, but all ensemble members are predicting that the holiday will end with a more significant winter blast, with the potential (but not certainty) of heavy rain.
Interestingly, a few ensemble members are predicting the potential for a very early season snow. Given the calendar date, we should expect these snow possibilities to melt away as we approach the actual event.
Happy Chanukah!
Barry Lynn
Wednesday, November 20, 2013
Weather It Is (How Are Those Chances Now?)
Good Evening:
Actually, the chance of rain is still pretty low before mid-next week. In fact, temperatures should warm up, and the air should become hazy with dust. While the temperatures will be quite comfortable, the dust might bother some folks.
Looking beyond a week, we seeing a stronger hint of winter weather. Earlier today, almost all of the ensemble members were pointing towards a winter storm, but now the ensemble has backed off a bit from consensus. Still, with enough hints, winter might actually get the message.
Barry Lynn
Actually, the chance of rain is still pretty low before mid-next week. In fact, temperatures should warm up, and the air should become hazy with dust. While the temperatures will be quite comfortable, the dust might bother some folks.
Looking beyond a week, we seeing a stronger hint of winter weather. Earlier today, almost all of the ensemble members were pointing towards a winter storm, but now the ensemble has backed off a bit from consensus. Still, with enough hints, winter might actually get the message.
Barry Lynn
Monday, November 18, 2013
Weather It Is (Is That Weather?)
Good Evening:
Today it rained, but not in many places. The occasional showers we've been seeing from time to time are the result of cooler air filtering in at mid and upper levels. The cooler air increases the instability of the atmosphere, and cumulonimbus clouds pop up from time to time, rain out, and then dissipate.
Looking ahead, the weather looks like it will be warming up over the next several days. This might be a bit confusing to those who have already turned on the heat or decided that winter is on our doorstep.
Don't give up hope, though, there is a 10% chance that next week will end with a cold winter storm -- but it may end just as it started today.
Barry Lynn
Today it rained, but not in many places. The occasional showers we've been seeing from time to time are the result of cooler air filtering in at mid and upper levels. The cooler air increases the instability of the atmosphere, and cumulonimbus clouds pop up from time to time, rain out, and then dissipate.
Looking ahead, the weather looks like it will be warming up over the next several days. This might be a bit confusing to those who have already turned on the heat or decided that winter is on our doorstep.
Don't give up hope, though, there is a 10% chance that next week will end with a cold winter storm -- but it may end just as it started today.
Barry Lynn
Tuesday, October 29, 2013
Weather It Is (A Smart Looking Low)
Good Evening:
Tonight and tomorrow low pressure will form over western Jordan, and move westwards to a position just off the Gaza coast by mid-afternoon.
The low is forecast to bring a chance of showers, especially in the Jordan Valley. Some of these showers could produce some quick stream flow.
The unsettled weather should continue into late this week, before cooling off a bit towards Shabbat.
Barry Lynn
Tonight and tomorrow low pressure will form over western Jordan, and move westwards to a position just off the Gaza coast by mid-afternoon.
The low is forecast to bring a chance of showers, especially in the Jordan Valley. Some of these showers could produce some quick stream flow.
The unsettled weather should continue into late this week, before cooling off a bit towards Shabbat.
Barry Lynn
Friday, October 25, 2013
Weather It Is (Small Changes A Foot)
Good Afternoon:
Where we live, on the hills of Jerusalem or the sands of Tel-Aviv, the weather is and will be pretty much what you see. It's neither too cold or too warm, which is nice.
Yet, changes are a foot in middle atmosphere, which shows some wave-like patterns in the temperature fields. These wave-like patterns indicate weak storm systems forming and passing through our area, and some of these may lead to some light rain across the country as we move into mid-next week.
Yet, there are no strong storm systems in the offing, but rather just some (mostly) pleasant fall weather.
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
Where we live, on the hills of Jerusalem or the sands of Tel-Aviv, the weather is and will be pretty much what you see. It's neither too cold or too warm, which is nice.
Yet, changes are a foot in middle atmosphere, which shows some wave-like patterns in the temperature fields. These wave-like patterns indicate weak storm systems forming and passing through our area, and some of these may lead to some light rain across the country as we move into mid-next week.
Yet, there are no strong storm systems in the offing, but rather just some (mostly) pleasant fall weather.
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
Thursday, October 17, 2013
Weather It Is (A Quick Blast)
Good Evening:
Winter will make an appearance tomorrow, and our balmy weather will step aside as some rain and cold winds arrive from the west.
There will likely be some heavy showers, and a chance of showers will persist on Shabbat.
After the storm passes, the temperatures should moderate back up to more comfortable levels, as we await our next cold weather (rainy) system.
Barry Lynn
Winter will make an appearance tomorrow, and our balmy weather will step aside as some rain and cold winds arrive from the west.
There will likely be some heavy showers, and a chance of showers will persist on Shabbat.
After the storm passes, the temperatures should moderate back up to more comfortable levels, as we await our next cold weather (rainy) system.
Barry Lynn
Sunday, October 6, 2013
Weather It Is (Is that Hot?)
Good evening:
Tonight will be the coolest weather of the year, falling to below 50 F in the center of the country (about 10 C). Yet the winds will be swinging around to the southeast as low pressure builds in from the same direction as we move along this week.
It's interesting because this is a classic set up for scorching hot weather, yet the weather will merely warm up to pleasant levels. This means that it really isn't to hot over the deserts that often feed us uncomfortably hot weather in spring, and just did a few weeks ago.
As for rain, none is expected for the next 10 days.
Barry Lynn
Tonight will be the coolest weather of the year, falling to below 50 F in the center of the country (about 10 C). Yet the winds will be swinging around to the southeast as low pressure builds in from the same direction as we move along this week.
It's interesting because this is a classic set up for scorching hot weather, yet the weather will merely warm up to pleasant levels. This means that it really isn't to hot over the deserts that often feed us uncomfortably hot weather in spring, and just did a few weeks ago.
As for rain, none is expected for the next 10 days.
Barry Lynn
Wednesday, October 2, 2013
Weather It Is (Headed Down... But)
Good Afternoon:
We're on the cusp of fall. A strong, but mostly dry front will barrel into our area during the next few days. Shabbat will have a definite nip in the air.
Yet, easy come, easy go, and after some chilling fall weather we should head right back up to "spring" (pretty much like it is today) by mid-next week.
So, if you feel confused -- don't know what to wear -- my apologies for the up and downs.
Barry Lynn
We're on the cusp of fall. A strong, but mostly dry front will barrel into our area during the next few days. Shabbat will have a definite nip in the air.
Yet, easy come, easy go, and after some chilling fall weather we should head right back up to "spring" (pretty much like it is today) by mid-next week.
So, if you feel confused -- don't know what to wear -- my apologies for the up and downs.
Barry Lynn
Tuesday, September 24, 2013
Weather It Is (Stormy, But...)
Good Morning:
The rain looks to start up far north today, and then move south late, ending up with some showers in the center tonight. However, there is a chance of a shower in the centre throughout the day.
Barry Lynn
The rain looks to start up far north today, and then move south late, ending up with some showers in the center tonight. However, there is a chance of a shower in the centre throughout the day.
Barry Lynn
Monday, September 23, 2013
Weather It Is (Storm on the Way)
Good Evening:
There is a strong storm on the way. Temperatures will drop off by several degrees, especially at upper levels, which will lead to a sharp increase in atmospheric instability.
There is some moisture associated with this storm, so we can expect rain and possibly some strong showers. However, rain amounts will generally be on the lighter side. The storm will arrive up north in the early morning, while developing a rain band in the center of the country. The rain will then continue, off and on, into Wednesday. Where this band forms is a bit uncertain, so keep an eye on the sky.
After the storm passes, the weather will moderate quite nicely.
Barry Lynn
There is a strong storm on the way. Temperatures will drop off by several degrees, especially at upper levels, which will lead to a sharp increase in atmospheric instability.
There is some moisture associated with this storm, so we can expect rain and possibly some strong showers. However, rain amounts will generally be on the lighter side. The storm will arrive up north in the early morning, while developing a rain band in the center of the country. The rain will then continue, off and on, into Wednesday. Where this band forms is a bit uncertain, so keep an eye on the sky.
After the storm passes, the weather will moderate quite nicely.
Barry Lynn
Sunday, September 22, 2013
Weather It Is (More Rain on the Way)
Good Afternoon:
I'm not sure that having an umbrella in the Sukka really did much good last night -- 0.27 inches of rain fell at our place and everything got thoroughly soaked. It is interesting that this was not a tropical rain, but the first winter-like rain of the year -- bypassing the tropical rains that usually occur at this time.
In fact, we're scheduled for another winter-like rain on Tuesday, which may produce an even heavier rain than the one yesterday and last (Motzei-Shabbat) night.
Yet, looking beyond the next winter rain, the weather maps show a return to more fall like weather -- even a bit warm for my taste.
So, enjoy the rain, enjoy the winter, but look forward to a bit of summer as well.
Until Tuesday, there is a risk of a shower, but nothing can be predicted with any certainty -- so no plans should be changed.
Modim L'Simcha,
Barry Lynn
I'm not sure that having an umbrella in the Sukka really did much good last night -- 0.27 inches of rain fell at our place and everything got thoroughly soaked. It is interesting that this was not a tropical rain, but the first winter-like rain of the year -- bypassing the tropical rains that usually occur at this time.
In fact, we're scheduled for another winter-like rain on Tuesday, which may produce an even heavier rain than the one yesterday and last (Motzei-Shabbat) night.
Yet, looking beyond the next winter rain, the weather maps show a return to more fall like weather -- even a bit warm for my taste.
So, enjoy the rain, enjoy the winter, but look forward to a bit of summer as well.
Until Tuesday, there is a risk of a shower, but nothing can be predicted with any certainty -- so no plans should be changed.
Modim L'Simcha,
Barry Lynn
Friday, September 20, 2013
Weather It Is (The Calendar Moves Along)
Good Afternoon:
The calendar moves along and so does the weather.
After a stifling evening, the temperature dropped off by 6 degrees in just a few hours as cold air swept our latest bit of summer reminder away.
The weather map shows a small storm impacting the north and center tonight into tomorrow morning, with the possibility of light rain in the center and moderate rain along the northern coast.
There is plenty of indication that the temperatures will fall off by about 10 more degrees from yesterday's highs and stay there for several days. Another storm impulse should be along sometime Sunday, with the possibility of more rain as well. Of course, we still have a strong fall sun, so it shouldn't feel to chilly while flitting between the shadows -- especially by mid-day when the morning chill should moderate to something more pleasant.
Barry Lynn
The calendar moves along and so does the weather.
After a stifling evening, the temperature dropped off by 6 degrees in just a few hours as cold air swept our latest bit of summer reminder away.
The weather map shows a small storm impacting the north and center tonight into tomorrow morning, with the possibility of light rain in the center and moderate rain along the northern coast.
There is plenty of indication that the temperatures will fall off by about 10 more degrees from yesterday's highs and stay there for several days. Another storm impulse should be along sometime Sunday, with the possibility of more rain as well. Of course, we still have a strong fall sun, so it shouldn't feel to chilly while flitting between the shadows -- especially by mid-day when the morning chill should moderate to something more pleasant.
Barry Lynn
Wednesday, September 18, 2013
Weather It Is (What, Rain Already?)
Good Afternoon:
The temperatures have warmed up nicely ahead of an approaching storm. However, winds are pretty gusty, although they shouldn't reach severe levels (but someone will need to volunteer to hold the bamboo covering ("Schock") on the Sukkah).
The last I looked, the calendar read September 18th, which seems a bit early for an approaching storm. Perhaps the weather goes according to the Jewish Calendar.
This storm is a pretty fast mover, and will bring light rain into the north with the possibility of a light shower in the center. The weather pattern should remain unstable during the next couple of days, so we can't rule out a Sukka shower as well.
Early in the week, an even stronger storm could bring higher rain chances (again to the north), with showers elsewhere.
Otherwise, temperatures will be pleasant pretty much all-over the country.
Hag Samaech,
Barry Lynn
The temperatures have warmed up nicely ahead of an approaching storm. However, winds are pretty gusty, although they shouldn't reach severe levels (but someone will need to volunteer to hold the bamboo covering ("Schock") on the Sukkah).
The last I looked, the calendar read September 18th, which seems a bit early for an approaching storm. Perhaps the weather goes according to the Jewish Calendar.
This storm is a pretty fast mover, and will bring light rain into the north with the possibility of a light shower in the center. The weather pattern should remain unstable during the next couple of days, so we can't rule out a Sukka shower as well.
Early in the week, an even stronger storm could bring higher rain chances (again to the north), with showers elsewhere.
Otherwise, temperatures will be pleasant pretty much all-over the country.
Hag Samaech,
Barry Lynn
Thursday, September 12, 2013
Weather It Is (Transitions Are Never Easy)
Good Afternoon:
As you can see in the article below, the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) is predicting the hottest temperatures on Yom Kippur in a decade. Our own forecast also predicts an uncomfortable build up of heat from this afternoon through Yom Kippur/Shabbat. However, our maximum high temperatures on Yom Kippur (as the heat wave eases) are a few degrees cooler than those of the IMS (although I just heard that the IMS might have backed down a bit).
The coolest locations will be along the coast where NW winds will bring in some moisture (and humidity), and in the highest areas around Jerusalem (like Gush Etzion) where temperatures will be two to three degrees cooler than Jerusalem and the Beit Shemesh Valley. Of course, Yom Kippur on the Hermon would be even better, but not in Katzrin where temperatures will approach the upper 30s.
This is a time of transition, and our relatively cool (summer) NW winds are being replaced by North Easterly winds rotating around low pressure to our east. Fortunately, these winds should shift back to the North by Northwest, just in time for Yom Kippur, but it will still be quite hot, nevertheless.
Yet, we're even seeing a large warm in time for Sukkot, to possibly be followed by some Succa showers as we transition back to cooler weather later in the holiday.
Lastly, there is only a danger of forest fires if someone lights one -- so be careful with campfires and cigarettes.
An easy fast,
Barry Lynn
Unseasonable heat to afflict Israelis on Yom Kippur
09/10/2013 19:45
A man rests during a heat wave. Photo: REUTERS
Israelis will experience unseasonably hot and dry temperatures while fasting
this Yom Kippur, due to a high-altitude air ridge and an influx of northerly
winds.
The weather changes will burden the country with considerable rises in heat, with the interior portions of Israel receiving the most scorching temperatures and an increased risk of fires, the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) announced on Tuesday.
During the heat wave, the hottest days will be Thursday, Friday and Saturday – with temperatures climbing the highest on Friday, the eve of Yom Kippur.
In meteorological terms, a ridge is an elongated region characterized by high atmospheric pressure, whereas a trough is such an area with low atmospheric pressure.
At the hottest point of the heat wave – on Friday – temperatures in the Shfela region could climb to 34-35 degrees Celsius, in the Jerusalem and Beersheba areas to 35-36 degrees Celsius and in the Galilee and southern Golan Heights to 39-41 degrees Celsius, IMS data predicted.
Such a hot-weather event is rare on Yom Kippur, in part because the holiday usually falls in October or late September, the IMS explained. During the past 50 years, only in 1988 and in 2002 did the country experience such levels of heat over the holiday.
For the years 1995 to 2009, the average daily maximum temperature in mid-September was 31 degrees Celsius for the Shfela region and 28 degrees Celsius for the Jerusalem region, according to IMS data. During those years in mid-October, averages were 29 degrees Celsius and 26-27 degrees Celsius for the respective regions.
While the weather forecasts do indicate unusually hot temperatures, the IMS stressed that these are daytime maximum figures.
Because the nights are getting longer during this time of year and nighttime temperatures drop considerably, it will be more difficult for severe conditions to accumulate during the day now in comparison to the height of summertime, the IMS said.
The Health Ministry warned people of all ages to take care to protect their health.
The elderly, patients with chronic diseases, pregnant women and babies especially, but also others, should avoid exposure to sun and heat, not perform any unnecessary physical activity and frequently drink water (not including those fasting on Yom Kippur, except on doctor’s orders) and stay in airconditioned places as much as possible.
There is also a danger of forest fires.
The weather changes will burden the country with considerable rises in heat, with the interior portions of Israel receiving the most scorching temperatures and an increased risk of fires, the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) announced on Tuesday.
During the heat wave, the hottest days will be Thursday, Friday and Saturday – with temperatures climbing the highest on Friday, the eve of Yom Kippur.
In meteorological terms, a ridge is an elongated region characterized by high atmospheric pressure, whereas a trough is such an area with low atmospheric pressure.
At the hottest point of the heat wave – on Friday – temperatures in the Shfela region could climb to 34-35 degrees Celsius, in the Jerusalem and Beersheba areas to 35-36 degrees Celsius and in the Galilee and southern Golan Heights to 39-41 degrees Celsius, IMS data predicted.
Such a hot-weather event is rare on Yom Kippur, in part because the holiday usually falls in October or late September, the IMS explained. During the past 50 years, only in 1988 and in 2002 did the country experience such levels of heat over the holiday.
For the years 1995 to 2009, the average daily maximum temperature in mid-September was 31 degrees Celsius for the Shfela region and 28 degrees Celsius for the Jerusalem region, according to IMS data. During those years in mid-October, averages were 29 degrees Celsius and 26-27 degrees Celsius for the respective regions.
While the weather forecasts do indicate unusually hot temperatures, the IMS stressed that these are daytime maximum figures.
Because the nights are getting longer during this time of year and nighttime temperatures drop considerably, it will be more difficult for severe conditions to accumulate during the day now in comparison to the height of summertime, the IMS said.
The Health Ministry warned people of all ages to take care to protect their health.
The elderly, patients with chronic diseases, pregnant women and babies especially, but also others, should avoid exposure to sun and heat, not perform any unnecessary physical activity and frequently drink water (not including those fasting on Yom Kippur, except on doctor’s orders) and stay in airconditioned places as much as possible.
There is also a danger of forest fires.
Sunday, September 8, 2013
Weather It Is (A Turn for the Worse)
Good Afternoon:
We certainly had some of the best Rosh Hashanah weather that I can remember. It wasn't too sunny, or too cloudy, and it wasn't particularly hot or too cold. The weather was just right.
Unfortunately, the weather will be taking a turn towards the "worse." Simply, it is going to get hot before it gets cool again, and while the hottest weather may occur on Thursday of this week, it's not going to cool off very fast, and Yom Kippur could also end up being rather uncomfortably hot.
The hot weather will be courtesy of low pressure strengthening over the desert of Saudia Arabia, as a easterly flow sets up and curves around over Iraq, passing over Syria and Jordan. So, the air will probably turn dusty as well, and air quality will be poor.
Gamar Chatima Tova,
Barry Lynn
We certainly had some of the best Rosh Hashanah weather that I can remember. It wasn't too sunny, or too cloudy, and it wasn't particularly hot or too cold. The weather was just right.
Unfortunately, the weather will be taking a turn towards the "worse." Simply, it is going to get hot before it gets cool again, and while the hottest weather may occur on Thursday of this week, it's not going to cool off very fast, and Yom Kippur could also end up being rather uncomfortably hot.
The hot weather will be courtesy of low pressure strengthening over the desert of Saudia Arabia, as a easterly flow sets up and curves around over Iraq, passing over Syria and Jordan. So, the air will probably turn dusty as well, and air quality will be poor.
Gamar Chatima Tova,
Barry Lynn
Tuesday, September 3, 2013
Weather It Is (Falling Slowly)
Good Afternoon:
There is a wonderful play on Broadway called "Once." It is a story about (two quite different people) falling in-love; alas circumstances lead elsewhere. One of the lead songs is called: "Falling Slowly."
Looking at our weather forecast, it just may be that the weather calendar is catching up with the early Jewish calendar. Temperatures are indeed trending downward over the next couple of weeks. There should be a sharp decrease in temperature in time for Rosh Hashanah, a brief warm-up for Shabbat, and then another trend downwards.
As for any rain: none is forecast.
Shana Tova,
Barry Lynn
There is a wonderful play on Broadway called "Once." It is a story about (two quite different people) falling in-love; alas circumstances lead elsewhere. One of the lead songs is called: "Falling Slowly."
Looking at our weather forecast, it just may be that the weather calendar is catching up with the early Jewish calendar. Temperatures are indeed trending downward over the next couple of weeks. There should be a sharp decrease in temperature in time for Rosh Hashanah, a brief warm-up for Shabbat, and then another trend downwards.
As for any rain: none is forecast.
Shana Tova,
Barry Lynn
Sunday, September 1, 2013
Weather It Is (Should We Consult the Readers?)
Good Morning:
I've put away the milk, cottage cheese, and bread, and I'm ready to look ahead a couple of weeks and see what we can do about this late fall weather. It's now September st and we see absolutely no change on the horizon. There is always the possibility of a bit of change in temperatures up or down, but there isn't anything to note in particular.
We're all quite relieved (in a sense) that our New Years will not be spent worrying about "blowback" from an United States attack on Syria, but the President's dithering made me think. If fact, it raises a profound question as we move into the second half of the month. I believe that I have the authority to forecast an early end to fall. In fact, I think that it is a moral imperative to end fall as early as possible and bring on the winter rains. After all, we're going to be changing our prayers and asking for rain at the end of Sukkot, so what choice do I have?
Yet, I feel that I should consult with the viewers/readers of this site before taking any action. True, the plants may wither (and die), but alas that I should take independent action and express leadership on this important issue. What choice is there but to consult, and then consult some more (just in case the opportunity presents itself to consult again). So, before taking action, whether it is "making it" (or forecasting) rain, I will be sure to ask you (or you too) for your opinion.
A Happy New Year
Barry Lynn
Tuesday, August 27, 2013
Weather It Is (The Winds Of Fall (Or, Is That War?))
Good evening:
The winds are about, and my wife was heard to comment that these are the winds of fall. We hope that fall transitions into winter without incident, but the winds of war are also blowing, and of course we're being threatened.
There was some very interesting research published by Dr. Amir Givati and Professor Daniel Rosenfeld (of the Israel Hydrological Service and The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, respectively). They found that December through February changes in pressure related to the "Artic Oscillation" (AO) correlate very well with precipitation changes in the Middle East. Quite interestingly, positive manifestations of the AO correspond to decreases in rainfall over the northern part of Israel (and even stronger decreases to our north), but there is an increase in precipitation over the central areas). The negative manifestations correspond to comparatively more rain over the northern areas. As Greenhouse gases have grown during the last few decades, the AO has been more positive than negative, and there has been a downward trend in precipitation amounts over our north, and more rain in central/southern Israel. This also leads to a more northerly flow -- meaning that winters can actually be cooler in our area as large parts of the rest of the world warm up (with higher Greenhouse gas concentrations).
So, how do we look seasonal prediction wise (from the Climate Forecast System model)? We look average in temperature and precipitation for this upcoming winter. Perhaps, then, it is not ironic that the next two weeks look to be more of the same with little change.
Shana Tova,
Barry Lynn
The winds are about, and my wife was heard to comment that these are the winds of fall. We hope that fall transitions into winter without incident, but the winds of war are also blowing, and of course we're being threatened.
There was some very interesting research published by Dr. Amir Givati and Professor Daniel Rosenfeld (of the Israel Hydrological Service and The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, respectively). They found that December through February changes in pressure related to the "Artic Oscillation" (AO) correlate very well with precipitation changes in the Middle East. Quite interestingly, positive manifestations of the AO correspond to decreases in rainfall over the northern part of Israel (and even stronger decreases to our north), but there is an increase in precipitation over the central areas). The negative manifestations correspond to comparatively more rain over the northern areas. As Greenhouse gases have grown during the last few decades, the AO has been more positive than negative, and there has been a downward trend in precipitation amounts over our north, and more rain in central/southern Israel. This also leads to a more northerly flow -- meaning that winters can actually be cooler in our area as large parts of the rest of the world warm up (with higher Greenhouse gas concentrations).
So, how do we look seasonal prediction wise (from the Climate Forecast System model)? We look average in temperature and precipitation for this upcoming winter. Perhaps, then, it is not ironic that the next two weeks look to be more of the same with little change.
Shana Tova,
Barry Lynn
Friday, July 12, 2013
Weather It Is (A Corduroy Summer)
Good afternoon:
The other day I was asked why I am wearing Corduroy pants in the summer time. My answer was simple: it's not hot. In fact, it hasn't been hot at all this summer.
The reason is that the circulation pattern has shifted from its normal summertime position. Normally, we have low pressure situated just off to our east, with a northeasterly flow, turning to northerly, and then northwesterly as one transverses from north to south and then just west of our area. However, the typical low pressure area that is normally situated over the hot desert is far to our east. Instead, strong low pressure is located over the northern shore of the eastern Mediterranean. The result is a steady, moist, and relatively cool flow of air from the northwest.
Looking ahead a bit, this pressure pattern will strengthen late next week and there will actually be the possibility of showers. The following week the pressure pattern will back off a bit and warmer air will flow westward, but not very much.
One might think that global warming is a thing of the past -- just something to talk about but not worry about. Yet, those who are on the other side of these cool systems have been unusually warm (i.e, hot). Just ask the people in Portugal (where my parents just visited) or in the US southwest (where unusual dryness has been accompanied by more forest fires).
Elevated greenhouse gasses has led to changes in cloudiness (there has been generally been more rain and more extreme rain), and surface and atmospheric heating. This has led to changes in circulation patterns. As greenhouse gases continue to elevate, contrasts from one location to another will probably grow larger.
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
The other day I was asked why I am wearing Corduroy pants in the summer time. My answer was simple: it's not hot. In fact, it hasn't been hot at all this summer.
The reason is that the circulation pattern has shifted from its normal summertime position. Normally, we have low pressure situated just off to our east, with a northeasterly flow, turning to northerly, and then northwesterly as one transverses from north to south and then just west of our area. However, the typical low pressure area that is normally situated over the hot desert is far to our east. Instead, strong low pressure is located over the northern shore of the eastern Mediterranean. The result is a steady, moist, and relatively cool flow of air from the northwest.
Looking ahead a bit, this pressure pattern will strengthen late next week and there will actually be the possibility of showers. The following week the pressure pattern will back off a bit and warmer air will flow westward, but not very much.
One might think that global warming is a thing of the past -- just something to talk about but not worry about. Yet, those who are on the other side of these cool systems have been unusually warm (i.e, hot). Just ask the people in Portugal (where my parents just visited) or in the US southwest (where unusual dryness has been accompanied by more forest fires).
Elevated greenhouse gasses has led to changes in cloudiness (there has been generally been more rain and more extreme rain), and surface and atmospheric heating. This has led to changes in circulation patterns. As greenhouse gases continue to elevate, contrasts from one location to another will probably grow larger.
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
Thursday, June 13, 2013
Friday, June 7, 2013
Weather It Is (Up and Down)
Good Afternoon:
The weather has been really nice, at least since Sunday (when temperatures were well up into the 90s).
Unfortunately, our good weather will be transitioning to something a bit more summer-like. However, before we can get too uncomfortable, the temperatures will fall off a bit -- only to rise again.
We see warming temperatures at 500 mb, indicating that our summertime weather is slowly setting in.
By the way, Tuesday is "Shuk-Day" at Super Deal in Efrat. They really do have good deals, and its a lot closer than the competition.
Otherwise, perhaps someone needs a larger (portable) kitchen closet. It is in very good condition, stands alone, and has room for food items, an oven, more food items (or hats), chairs and brooms. Please call if you're interested (best price and it goes).
Barry Lynn
The weather has been really nice, at least since Sunday (when temperatures were well up into the 90s).
Unfortunately, our good weather will be transitioning to something a bit more summer-like. However, before we can get too uncomfortable, the temperatures will fall off a bit -- only to rise again.
We see warming temperatures at 500 mb, indicating that our summertime weather is slowly setting in.
By the way, Tuesday is "Shuk-Day" at Super Deal in Efrat. They really do have good deals, and its a lot closer than the competition.
Otherwise, perhaps someone needs a larger (portable) kitchen closet. It is in very good condition, stands alone, and has room for food items, an oven, more food items (or hats), chairs and brooms. Please call if you're interested (best price and it goes).
Barry Lynn
Thursday, May 30, 2013
Weather It Is (Extreme Heat; Yet, a Musack (Garage) That Won't Leave You Hot Under the Collar)
Good Morning:
Southerly winds will bring extreme heat to most of the country today. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 30s in most places, and into the 40s down south and in the Dead Sea area. These are dangerous levels.
Winds from the west will moderate the temperatures tomorrow, but not by much. Early next week, temperatures will rise again, and even become extreme.
It will certainly be cooler in the shade, so stay out of the sun, and try to stay air conditioned if you can. One place you can be sure to be cooler and find a nice place to stay cool is the Muscack (Garage) of Gush Etzion. I have to mention that I had a recent issue that was resolved most amicably. The proprietor, Elad, deserves a bit "thank you" for his honesty and consideration. Of course, you can have your car serviced and head over to the English Bakery next door for something to eat and drink. So honesty, consideration, and good food go a long way!
Barry Lynn
Southerly winds will bring extreme heat to most of the country today. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 30s in most places, and into the 40s down south and in the Dead Sea area. These are dangerous levels.
Winds from the west will moderate the temperatures tomorrow, but not by much. Early next week, temperatures will rise again, and even become extreme.
It will certainly be cooler in the shade, so stay out of the sun, and try to stay air conditioned if you can. One place you can be sure to be cooler and find a nice place to stay cool is the Muscack (Garage) of Gush Etzion. I have to mention that I had a recent issue that was resolved most amicably. The proprietor, Elad, deserves a bit "thank you" for his honesty and consideration. Of course, you can have your car serviced and head over to the English Bakery next door for something to eat and drink. So honesty, consideration, and good food go a long way!
Barry Lynn
Monday, May 27, 2013
Weather It Is (Feeling a Bit Confused?)
The weather has been up and down -- quite dramatically. From light winds and warm temperatures to strong winds and relatively very cold temperatures. Is it spring, summer, or even winter?
The next weather system should bring some mid-level moisture (light rain, perhaps) by mid-week and then a sharp warm up (or is that "hot" up) to extremely hot temperatures on Thursday. Actually, the temperatures are forecast to dive the next day and then return to really hot levels this coming Sunday.
Are we headed into summer with just some detours along the way? Actually, we see no indication yet that the weather pattern will settle down -- so better to just enjoy the ride.
Barry
The next weather system should bring some mid-level moisture (light rain, perhaps) by mid-week and then a sharp warm up (or is that "hot" up) to extremely hot temperatures on Thursday. Actually, the temperatures are forecast to dive the next day and then return to really hot levels this coming Sunday.
Are we headed into summer with just some detours along the way? Actually, we see no indication yet that the weather pattern will settle down -- so better to just enjoy the ride.
Barry
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
Weather It Is (A Bit Wet and Windy)
Good Afternoon:
A late winter-like season storm will approach our area tonight and move through tomorrow. Temperatures should drop substantially during the storm, which will bring in moisture off the sea.
The current rain amounts are between 5 and 10 mm from the coastal areas to the center, and should occur from late tonight into tomorrow morning. The rain should be accompanied by lightning and thunder.
After the storm passes, temperatures will warm substantially, before taking a bit of a dive mid-next week.
Hag Shavuot Sameach,
Barry Lynn
A late winter-like season storm will approach our area tonight and move through tomorrow. Temperatures should drop substantially during the storm, which will bring in moisture off the sea.
The current rain amounts are between 5 and 10 mm from the coastal areas to the center, and should occur from late tonight into tomorrow morning. The rain should be accompanied by lightning and thunder.
After the storm passes, temperatures will warm substantially, before taking a bit of a dive mid-next week.
Hag Shavuot Sameach,
Barry Lynn
Sunday, May 12, 2013
Weather It Is (It's Chilly)
Good Evening:
As mentioned in a previous blog, our temperatures are headed downwards for the next few days as winter-like chill moves south and east into our area. Temperatures are expected to fall by about 7 C at lower and upper levels, and some moisture will move in as well.
Looking at our three day rain forecast does not indicate a heavy rain, but rain is a possibility and we'll have to see how this plays out during the next few days.
The chilly weather, though, should be followed by an extended period of much warmer weather, which will feel more like summer than spring.
Otherwise, Carbon Dioxide levels continue to rise, and we've passed the 400 parts per million (on average over the globe), which is about 30% higher than before the turn of last century. Unfortunately, CO2 is one of those gases that increases the heat retention of the atmosphere, as the radiation balance shifts to a higher energy state. There are those who argue that there is nothing to worry about, but this is based on the argument that in the past changes in CO2 levels did not lead to (or cause) extreme temperatures. In fact, in the past, changes in solar radiation levels associated with changes in the earth's orbit were likely a big part of changes in earth surface temperatures. However, in the past there weren't very many people, and CO2 temperatures were not out of "balance" with the underlying amounts of sunlight reaching the earth's surface -- now they are. The CO2 level. unfortunately, is on the way up.
Barry Lynn
As mentioned in a previous blog, our temperatures are headed downwards for the next few days as winter-like chill moves south and east into our area. Temperatures are expected to fall by about 7 C at lower and upper levels, and some moisture will move in as well.
Looking at our three day rain forecast does not indicate a heavy rain, but rain is a possibility and we'll have to see how this plays out during the next few days.
The chilly weather, though, should be followed by an extended period of much warmer weather, which will feel more like summer than spring.
Otherwise, Carbon Dioxide levels continue to rise, and we've passed the 400 parts per million (on average over the globe), which is about 30% higher than before the turn of last century. Unfortunately, CO2 is one of those gases that increases the heat retention of the atmosphere, as the radiation balance shifts to a higher energy state. There are those who argue that there is nothing to worry about, but this is based on the argument that in the past changes in CO2 levels did not lead to (or cause) extreme temperatures. In fact, in the past, changes in solar radiation levels associated with changes in the earth's orbit were likely a big part of changes in earth surface temperatures. However, in the past there weren't very many people, and CO2 temperatures were not out of "balance" with the underlying amounts of sunlight reaching the earth's surface -- now they are. The CO2 level. unfortunately, is on the way up.
Barry Lynn
Friday, May 3, 2013
Weather It Is (That Kind of Weather)
Good Morning:
The weather continues along its merry way, not particularly hot, but not particularly pleasant. There is a lot of dust and smoke trapped below the inversion layer at lower to mid altitudes. The dust has arrived from far off desert areas while the smoke is our own (Lag B'Omer) doings.
People are asking: "Is that it? -- meaning will there be anymore rain. Well, actually, temperatures should turn about 10 C cooler in about a weeks + time, meaning that some moisture and colder air will create the opportunity for May showers.
There were many fires during the Lag B'Omer period, and many of these were not intentional but a result of Bon-Fires that spread uncontrollably. Fires are dangerous and I'd like to suggest that the practice of wide-spread lightning of fires end, and that towns (cities) sponsor a bon-fire with proper safety precautions. Alternatively, a little fire in the grill is also a good thing (because one can approach close enough to cook).
Lastly, wouldn't it be great if beaches were to have (not separate) but religous family sections for those who would like to swim, but prefer to stay away from the Bikini crowd? I know that for some this wouldn't be a good alternative, but it is a nice alternative to the present situation at our beaches. There could be signs: "Bikinis left; Families right."
Barry Lynn
The weather continues along its merry way, not particularly hot, but not particularly pleasant. There is a lot of dust and smoke trapped below the inversion layer at lower to mid altitudes. The dust has arrived from far off desert areas while the smoke is our own (Lag B'Omer) doings.
People are asking: "Is that it? -- meaning will there be anymore rain. Well, actually, temperatures should turn about 10 C cooler in about a weeks + time, meaning that some moisture and colder air will create the opportunity for May showers.
There were many fires during the Lag B'Omer period, and many of these were not intentional but a result of Bon-Fires that spread uncontrollably. Fires are dangerous and I'd like to suggest that the practice of wide-spread lightning of fires end, and that towns (cities) sponsor a bon-fire with proper safety precautions. Alternatively, a little fire in the grill is also a good thing (because one can approach close enough to cook).
Lastly, wouldn't it be great if beaches were to have (not separate) but religous family sections for those who would like to swim, but prefer to stay away from the Bikini crowd? I know that for some this wouldn't be a good alternative, but it is a nice alternative to the present situation at our beaches. There could be signs: "Bikinis left; Families right."
Barry Lynn
Tuesday, April 30, 2013
Weather It Is (A WARM Thank You to "Superdeal"
Good Evening:
On Monday, the air was so still and warm that even the Mediterranean stood still. It was almost like a lake. There was even a "mirage:" it appeared that the tents covering the beach were actually out at sea.
The weather turned windier in the afternoon, and winds have continued to blow strongly. There will be a bit of a moisture push on Thursday, which may lead to scattered tropical showers. Moreover, temperatures should be headed down a bit as the week rounds out.
However, while temperatures are cooling nearer to the surface, they will be warming aloft after Thursday. This means that the atmosphere is stabilising; of course we are headed into summer.
I'd like to mention that we had a bit of a topsy turvy last few months. After a very large amount of winter rain, we turned more dry and windy, with occasional bouts of warm and then cold weather. Apparently, this type of weather was quite favourable for our vegetables. For the first time in Israel (courtesy of the Superdeal in Efrat), I ate sweet corn, and sweet Sugar Snap peas. I also made caramelised shallots. So, I have to thank Superdeal for making the effort to bring us the blessings of our winter/spring. Perhaps, as I was told that Rabbi Shalom Gold said, there was just enough weather for everyone.
Barry Lynn
On Monday, the air was so still and warm that even the Mediterranean stood still. It was almost like a lake. There was even a "mirage:" it appeared that the tents covering the beach were actually out at sea.
The weather turned windier in the afternoon, and winds have continued to blow strongly. There will be a bit of a moisture push on Thursday, which may lead to scattered tropical showers. Moreover, temperatures should be headed down a bit as the week rounds out.
However, while temperatures are cooling nearer to the surface, they will be warming aloft after Thursday. This means that the atmosphere is stabilising; of course we are headed into summer.
I'd like to mention that we had a bit of a topsy turvy last few months. After a very large amount of winter rain, we turned more dry and windy, with occasional bouts of warm and then cold weather. Apparently, this type of weather was quite favourable for our vegetables. For the first time in Israel (courtesy of the Superdeal in Efrat), I ate sweet corn, and sweet Sugar Snap peas. I also made caramelised shallots. So, I have to thank Superdeal for making the effort to bring us the blessings of our winter/spring. Perhaps, as I was told that Rabbi Shalom Gold said, there was just enough weather for everyone.
Barry Lynn
Monday, April 22, 2013
Weather It Is (Spring Springs Back)
Good Afternoon:
After a week's worth of cold weather, we're about to turn the corner -- as Spring springs back. Temperatures should begin warming on Tuesday and then warm progressively each day as winds blow from the southeast. Sunshine, which has been in short supply, should be in abundance.
Yesterday's rain produced about 1/2 inch of rain in Efrat. This is about 12 mm of rain. Where I come from, this is a good day's rain. However, during the January storm as much as 50 mm or more fell during a single day. Of course, it doesn't usually rain during the late spring and summer months, so it's important that 50 mm in a single winter's rain event happen more frequently than not. Moreover, after our late winter drought, the rain is welcome.
This last storm had very winter like characteristics, and some said that the weather had a turned a bit weird. "Weird" weather is one defining characteristic of weather in a global warming world, yet one can not draw long term conclusions from a single period of uncommonly cold weather (for April, no less).
Barry Lynn
After a week's worth of cold weather, we're about to turn the corner -- as Spring springs back. Temperatures should begin warming on Tuesday and then warm progressively each day as winds blow from the southeast. Sunshine, which has been in short supply, should be in abundance.
Yesterday's rain produced about 1/2 inch of rain in Efrat. This is about 12 mm of rain. Where I come from, this is a good day's rain. However, during the January storm as much as 50 mm or more fell during a single day. Of course, it doesn't usually rain during the late spring and summer months, so it's important that 50 mm in a single winter's rain event happen more frequently than not. Moreover, after our late winter drought, the rain is welcome.
This last storm had very winter like characteristics, and some said that the weather had a turned a bit weird. "Weird" weather is one defining characteristic of weather in a global warming world, yet one can not draw long term conclusions from a single period of uncommonly cold weather (for April, no less).
Barry Lynn
Thursday, April 18, 2013
Weather It Is (Winter's Grasp)
Good Evening:
High pressure remains anchored to our north. It continues to funnel cold air into our area, which is helping low pressure to spin up in the eastern Mediterranean. Hence, for the next few days there should be periodic periods of rain from about the center of the country to the north, with a few isolated showers further south.
The rain doesn't look to be too heavy, but it is persistent. Moreover, temperatures will be cooling at upper levels which could lead to greater instability and possibly short-lived heavier convective storms. The winter-like cold weather should persist into Sunday, before the high pressure moves off to the east and warmer weather and temperatures return.
Barry Lynn
High pressure remains anchored to our north. It continues to funnel cold air into our area, which is helping low pressure to spin up in the eastern Mediterranean. Hence, for the next few days there should be periodic periods of rain from about the center of the country to the north, with a few isolated showers further south.
The rain doesn't look to be too heavy, but it is persistent. Moreover, temperatures will be cooling at upper levels which could lead to greater instability and possibly short-lived heavier convective storms. The winter-like cold weather should persist into Sunday, before the high pressure moves off to the east and warmer weather and temperatures return.
Barry Lynn
Monday, April 15, 2013
Weather It Is (A Pleasant Day Followed by...)
Good Morning:
Today is turning out to be a really nice day weather wise, which is appropriate for those who must or wish to pay their respects and give their thoughts to those who made our lives in the land of Israel possible today.
The nice weather will come to an end tonight, though. High pressure has anchored itself to our north. It is holding at bay weather systems that until now have kept us on the southern edge of the storm track. Instead, cold air flowing clockwise around this high is helping to spin up weather systems moving across the Mediterranean. One such system will impact us late tonight and early tomorrow morning, with some light rain scattered across the area. Temperatures will feel a bit chilly in moderately strong winds.
On Independence Day, there will be some scattered showers (mostly in the north) before a stronger system moves in Tuesday night with a more significant rain.
Looking ahead, the cold air should last until the end of the week; afterwards, we should return to warm (but not hot) and pleasant spring weather.
Barry Lynn
Today is turning out to be a really nice day weather wise, which is appropriate for those who must or wish to pay their respects and give their thoughts to those who made our lives in the land of Israel possible today.
The nice weather will come to an end tonight, though. High pressure has anchored itself to our north. It is holding at bay weather systems that until now have kept us on the southern edge of the storm track. Instead, cold air flowing clockwise around this high is helping to spin up weather systems moving across the Mediterranean. One such system will impact us late tonight and early tomorrow morning, with some light rain scattered across the area. Temperatures will feel a bit chilly in moderately strong winds.
On Independence Day, there will be some scattered showers (mostly in the north) before a stronger system moves in Tuesday night with a more significant rain.
Looking ahead, the cold air should last until the end of the week; afterwards, we should return to warm (but not hot) and pleasant spring weather.
Barry Lynn
Saturday, April 13, 2013
Weather It Is (A Rainy Independence Day?)
Good Evening:
People are asking me, what is the weather going to be on Israeli Independence day. Well, I wasn't very forthcoming because at this time of year one doesn't think about rain, so I just referred them to our web site.
One might think that it always gets warm before Israeli Independence day, and then gets cool just in time for the ceremonies. I did mention this, but it turns out that this year should be different.
It won't really get warm before the big day, but it should be sunny and pleasant for those who must honor those who gave their lives so others could live in a relative peace and prosperity. However, winds should pick up ahead of a strong storm dropping out of the north and west as the day progresses. Then, rain should move in at night - most likely after the fireworks.
This storm is more of a wintertime storm than a spring tropical storm, and it may bring a welcome rain. Of course, the rain may not feel welcome on Israeli Independence day, but the weather doesn't usually pay attention to our personal plans.
Looking far ahead into next week, this rainy system should be followed by a period of warm days and cool nights.
Barry Lynn
People are asking me, what is the weather going to be on Israeli Independence day. Well, I wasn't very forthcoming because at this time of year one doesn't think about rain, so I just referred them to our web site.
One might think that it always gets warm before Israeli Independence day, and then gets cool just in time for the ceremonies. I did mention this, but it turns out that this year should be different.
It won't really get warm before the big day, but it should be sunny and pleasant for those who must honor those who gave their lives so others could live in a relative peace and prosperity. However, winds should pick up ahead of a strong storm dropping out of the north and west as the day progresses. Then, rain should move in at night - most likely after the fireworks.
This storm is more of a wintertime storm than a spring tropical storm, and it may bring a welcome rain. Of course, the rain may not feel welcome on Israeli Independence day, but the weather doesn't usually pay attention to our personal plans.
Looking far ahead into next week, this rainy system should be followed by a period of warm days and cool nights.
Barry Lynn
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
Weather It Is (Dust and Rain)
Good Afternoon:
The weather map continues to show change from one day to the next. For instance, Thursday will feature an influx of dust ahead of our next storm, to be followed by a period of light to moderate rainfall from the north to the center of the country. The weather will then warm up early next week, cool off a bit, and then possibly cool off again ahead of our next (hopefully) more rainy weather system.
It seems that "spring-like" weather came early this year with storms preferring to coat us with dust, rather than liquid water. It hasn't really rained since early February, which is about month and half too early in the season to end our rainy weather.
Otherwise, we've been providing dust forecast maps on our maps page. We're working to include this information directly in our forecasts on the main forecast page.
Lastly, we're considering to include in our forecasts the probability of missile attacks, depending on weather the new government treats these attacks like an act of nature, or not (Hamas).
Barry Lynn
The weather map continues to show change from one day to the next. For instance, Thursday will feature an influx of dust ahead of our next storm, to be followed by a period of light to moderate rainfall from the north to the center of the country. The weather will then warm up early next week, cool off a bit, and then possibly cool off again ahead of our next (hopefully) more rainy weather system.
It seems that "spring-like" weather came early this year with storms preferring to coat us with dust, rather than liquid water. It hasn't really rained since early February, which is about month and half too early in the season to end our rainy weather.
Otherwise, we've been providing dust forecast maps on our maps page. We're working to include this information directly in our forecasts on the main forecast page.
Lastly, we're considering to include in our forecasts the probability of missile attacks, depending on weather the new government treats these attacks like an act of nature, or not (Hamas).
Barry Lynn
Friday, March 22, 2013
Weather It Is (The Little Storm That Couldn't; A Global Warming World)
The drought continues to deepen -- it really hasn't rained a substantial amount in 6 weeks.
When we look at the GFS 10 day forecast or the GFS ensemble forecast, we see the possibility of rain. However, there are always several members or more of this ensemble that indicate that the storm will either weaken or pass by to our north, and by the time the storm should have arrived, all the ensemble members agree that the storm will -- for the most part -- miss us again.
In fact, this Friday evening and Shabbat one of these storms will impact our area, but the impact will be just a glancing blow. One interesting fact is that there is still plenty of cold air in Europe, and the storm track is still fairly active. It looks, though, like it has retreated a bit to the north, and the retreat to the north has been (for our sake), about a month too early in the winter season.
One predicted consequence of global warming is that storms will be less frequent, come later in the season, and depart earlier. There is also an indication that storms -- when they do occur -- will be more ferocious -- heavier rain and wind. This winter is -- quite possibly -- a glimpse into a world impacted by global warming.
As for Pesach, the active Jet stream will continue, but there will also be at least a few days of warmer weather before the next possible storm late next week.
Shabbat Shalom; have a good Pessach,
Barry Lynn
When we look at the GFS 10 day forecast or the GFS ensemble forecast, we see the possibility of rain. However, there are always several members or more of this ensemble that indicate that the storm will either weaken or pass by to our north, and by the time the storm should have arrived, all the ensemble members agree that the storm will -- for the most part -- miss us again.
In fact, this Friday evening and Shabbat one of these storms will impact our area, but the impact will be just a glancing blow. One interesting fact is that there is still plenty of cold air in Europe, and the storm track is still fairly active. It looks, though, like it has retreated a bit to the north, and the retreat to the north has been (for our sake), about a month too early in the winter season.
One predicted consequence of global warming is that storms will be less frequent, come later in the season, and depart earlier. There is also an indication that storms -- when they do occur -- will be more ferocious -- heavier rain and wind. This winter is -- quite possibly -- a glimpse into a world impacted by global warming.
As for Pesach, the active Jet stream will continue, but there will also be at least a few days of warmer weather before the next possible storm late next week.
Shabbat Shalom; have a good Pessach,
Barry Lynn
Thursday, March 14, 2013
Weather It Is (Was that too hot or too cold?)
Spring has sprung, or has it?
We've had the warmest weather of the late winter and Friday's weather will feel downright hot. Yet, one might be forgiven for feeling like we're headed for a roller coaster ride!
By Shabbat, it just won't feel like a Kansas summer day anymore, but more like the Middle East (particularly Israel), where our emotions can go up and down depending on the latest happenings (but, preferably up!).
We've been watching a developing winter storm for the past few days. It is swinging through central Europe and it is headed our way. The problem, so to speak, is that hard on its heels a faster moving pocket of energy that (in many of our ensemble forecasts) rips this late winter storm to shreds, at least in the middle atmosphere, causing our storm to lose its trough-like sharpness before blasting us with a winter chill.
There still are three ensemble members holding our for a more intense winter storm, and hence, there remains the possibility of light to moderate rain mixing with snow early next week. In any case, all the ensemble indicate that it's going to feel chilly, and our summer like weather will only be a memory, even as the week progresses into next.
Barry Lynn
We've had the warmest weather of the late winter and Friday's weather will feel downright hot. Yet, one might be forgiven for feeling like we're headed for a roller coaster ride!
By Shabbat, it just won't feel like a Kansas summer day anymore, but more like the Middle East (particularly Israel), where our emotions can go up and down depending on the latest happenings (but, preferably up!).
We've been watching a developing winter storm for the past few days. It is swinging through central Europe and it is headed our way. The problem, so to speak, is that hard on its heels a faster moving pocket of energy that (in many of our ensemble forecasts) rips this late winter storm to shreds, at least in the middle atmosphere, causing our storm to lose its trough-like sharpness before blasting us with a winter chill.
There still are three ensemble members holding our for a more intense winter storm, and hence, there remains the possibility of light to moderate rain mixing with snow early next week. In any case, all the ensemble indicate that it's going to feel chilly, and our summer like weather will only be a memory, even as the week progresses into next.
Barry Lynn
Thursday, March 7, 2013
Weather It Is (Almost Perfect)
Good Afternoon:
The weather has been a bit cool, but overall it's been pretty sunny and it's no longer very windy.
The next few days will be neither here nor there, and there is a chance of light rain early next week.
We're basically along the southern edge of a developing large trough of winter weather over Europe. This winter trough should slowly, but inexorably push itself southward, as well as amplify.
As the trough amplifies, the winds will pick up out of the south next week and we are likely to see the hottest weather of the new year by mid-week.
But then, in a cruel twist of fate, the trough may just come crashing through, sweeping away the warm/hot weather (locusts, frogs, etc), bringing with it our first real rain in a month's time. In fact, this trough of cold weather may be just so cold, that it freezes those aspiring rain drops and turns them into snowflakes. At the moment, this (snowy) scenario is about a 20% chance, but the overall pattern looks potentially wintery. So, don't put away those winter clothes just yet!
Barry Lynn
The weather has been a bit cool, but overall it's been pretty sunny and it's no longer very windy.
The next few days will be neither here nor there, and there is a chance of light rain early next week.
We're basically along the southern edge of a developing large trough of winter weather over Europe. This winter trough should slowly, but inexorably push itself southward, as well as amplify.
As the trough amplifies, the winds will pick up out of the south next week and we are likely to see the hottest weather of the new year by mid-week.
But then, in a cruel twist of fate, the trough may just come crashing through, sweeping away the warm/hot weather (locusts, frogs, etc), bringing with it our first real rain in a month's time. In fact, this trough of cold weather may be just so cold, that it freezes those aspiring rain drops and turns them into snowflakes. At the moment, this (snowy) scenario is about a 20% chance, but the overall pattern looks potentially wintery. So, don't put away those winter clothes just yet!
Barry Lynn
Thursday, February 28, 2013
Weather It Is (The Drought Settles In)
Tonight and tomorrow a storm system will advance across the Mediterranean while a cold winter trough drops southward. Temperatures will rise ahead of the low pressure, but it will remain breezy (but not as windy as today) for the Jerusalem Marathon. Temperatures will rise even more on Shabbat as the low nears, and will feel quite warm for early March.
The low and the trough will phase together on Sunday. If this were "winter," this would be the perfect set up for a winter storm. Yet, the atmosphere is not acting like winter, but more like the weather in late March when storms approach our area, but seem to lack good lifting and a good moisture source. Hence, the storm approaches, and then sweeps quickly eastward with perhaps most of its rain shield remaining to our north.
Hence, the dry period of the last two weeks will likely become a dry period of three weeks, even though the weather won't feel like spring-- which is a bit strange. We'll hope that a rainy period can return by mid-March.
To those running: good luck in the Marathon and Shabbat Shalom to all,
Barry Lynn
The low and the trough will phase together on Sunday. If this were "winter," this would be the perfect set up for a winter storm. Yet, the atmosphere is not acting like winter, but more like the weather in late March when storms approach our area, but seem to lack good lifting and a good moisture source. Hence, the storm approaches, and then sweeps quickly eastward with perhaps most of its rain shield remaining to our north.
Hence, the dry period of the last two weeks will likely become a dry period of three weeks, even though the weather won't feel like spring-- which is a bit strange. We'll hope that a rainy period can return by mid-March.
To those running: good luck in the Marathon and Shabbat Shalom to all,
Barry Lynn
Monday, February 25, 2013
Weather It Is (Purim and Beyond)
Good Morning:
The weather looks pretty much now like it will look at the end of the week. Neither too warm nor too cool, with a few clouds here or there (depending on where you are). In fact, the weather just might be perfect for the Jerusalem Marathon.
Yet, there are a few ensemble members that suggest that our sunny weather will be followed early next week by some rain, and there is even one (she, like a ship, perhaps?) who says it will be quite cold and snowy. This isn't out of the question as the weather map shows extremely cold air over northern Europe and a series of low pressure areas moving across to the south that just might take a bite from this cold air.
We interviewed this ensemble member about her forecasts. She said: "I know that my brothers and sisters (we're of the GFS family) are predicting pretty much springtime weather or springtime showers, but I'm different. When they say up, I like to say down. When they say sun, I like to say, well... I think it's going to snow and that winter will come roaring back."
We were a little surprised to hear this, so we followed up. "I've always been quite contrary," as if in explanation. "In the summer time, for instance, I'll wear my fake fur coat even when its 35 degrees." When I looked at her strangely, she added: "Of course, I'll wear my shorts under the fake-fur."
If you'd like to see "her" for yourself, just go to the web site site and look under GEFS ensemble forecast (e.g 500 mb temperatures). Of course, by the time you look Purim may be over, and she may be gone by the way of all small chances. On the other hand, Purim miracles do happen, whether forecast or not.
Barry Lynn
The weather looks pretty much now like it will look at the end of the week. Neither too warm nor too cool, with a few clouds here or there (depending on where you are). In fact, the weather just might be perfect for the Jerusalem Marathon.
Yet, there are a few ensemble members that suggest that our sunny weather will be followed early next week by some rain, and there is even one (she, like a ship, perhaps?) who says it will be quite cold and snowy. This isn't out of the question as the weather map shows extremely cold air over northern Europe and a series of low pressure areas moving across to the south that just might take a bite from this cold air.
We interviewed this ensemble member about her forecasts. She said: "I know that my brothers and sisters (we're of the GFS family) are predicting pretty much springtime weather or springtime showers, but I'm different. When they say up, I like to say down. When they say sun, I like to say, well... I think it's going to snow and that winter will come roaring back."
We were a little surprised to hear this, so we followed up. "I've always been quite contrary," as if in explanation. "In the summer time, for instance, I'll wear my fake fur coat even when its 35 degrees." When I looked at her strangely, she added: "Of course, I'll wear my shorts under the fake-fur."
If you'd like to see "her" for yourself, just go to the web site site and look under GEFS ensemble forecast (e.g 500 mb temperatures). Of course, by the time you look Purim may be over, and she may be gone by the way of all small chances. On the other hand, Purim miracles do happen, whether forecast or not.
Barry Lynn
Sunday, February 24, 2013
Weather It Is (A Glancing Blow, and Then a Shift)
Good Morning:
A weak storm persists to cloudy the skies a bit, with light rain scattered here or there. However, it's not enough clouds or rain to dampen the Purim Spirits.
The storm will pass today and then a rather nice and prolonged warm up will ensue. The weather pattern seems to be shifting towards spring. There a storm expected to approach us on Friday, but for the moment it fails to phase with the northern Jet-Stream energy that represents some of winters coldest air of the season. Instead, the coldest air passes off to our east and our approaching storm just weakens such that we may not even notice its passage.
This is as good thing for those planning weddings and marathons at the end of the week!
Barry Lynn
A weak storm persists to cloudy the skies a bit, with light rain scattered here or there. However, it's not enough clouds or rain to dampen the Purim Spirits.
The storm will pass today and then a rather nice and prolonged warm up will ensue. The weather pattern seems to be shifting towards spring. There a storm expected to approach us on Friday, but for the moment it fails to phase with the northern Jet-Stream energy that represents some of winters coldest air of the season. Instead, the coldest air passes off to our east and our approaching storm just weakens such that we may not even notice its passage.
This is as good thing for those planning weddings and marathons at the end of the week!
Barry Lynn
Thursday, February 21, 2013
Weather It Is (Don't Drink Too Much!)
Good Evening:
The ups and downs of the weather just may make you feel a bit Purim drunk.
Our
beautiful weather will come to an end on Shabbat, as a storm system
moves in from the west. It's a cool, but not cold winter system that
will bring a general light rain to center and northern parts of the
country.
The
skies should clear Sunday morning, and then temperatures will be on the
upswing, and peak about mid-week. In fact, the weather pattern looks a
bit like a rollercoaster.
Hence,
one might be forgiven for feeling a bit tipsy after Purim when
temperatures then begin a dive towards (possibly) much colder levels
towards the end of next week again, as another storm approaches. This
storm may carve out a deep trough extending into northern Europe, and
may be able to tap much colder air than usual. Will it be enough to
whiten the ground? Stay tuned.
Shabbat Shalom,
Monday, February 18, 2013
Weather It Is (The Ups and Downs)
Good Evening:
My impression is that the weather was a bit chilly this morning. It wasn't cold, but it was still chilly. Yet, we're under the influence of high pressure, and temperatures should moderate nicely upwards by the end of the week.
By the end of the week a storm will approach us and we'll have another bout of light to moderate rain, and temperatures will head down again, only to head up again on the tail end of the storm.
Looking at the GFS ensemble forecast, we don't see anything really interesting on the horizon. But, looking at the GFS "deterministic" forecast shows high pressure moving into Central Europe and extremely cold air associated with a trough of low pressure pressing southward (very late February). At the same time, a storm begins to move under (south of) the high, and one gets a hint that this system will merge with the northern trough. These are the ingredients of a late winter (winter) storm that might impact our area very late February or early March. If not, it might just be on to spring!
Barry Lynn
My impression is that the weather was a bit chilly this morning. It wasn't cold, but it was still chilly. Yet, we're under the influence of high pressure, and temperatures should moderate nicely upwards by the end of the week.
By the end of the week a storm will approach us and we'll have another bout of light to moderate rain, and temperatures will head down again, only to head up again on the tail end of the storm.
Looking at the GFS ensemble forecast, we don't see anything really interesting on the horizon. But, looking at the GFS "deterministic" forecast shows high pressure moving into Central Europe and extremely cold air associated with a trough of low pressure pressing southward (very late February). At the same time, a storm begins to move under (south of) the high, and one gets a hint that this system will merge with the northern trough. These are the ingredients of a late winter (winter) storm that might impact our area very late February or early March. If not, it might just be on to spring!
Barry Lynn
Friday, February 15, 2013
Weather It Is (Going Backwards)
Good Afternoon:
The weather feels quite winter like, although the temperature is about 10 C. The reason it feels chilly is that there is a strong wind. In fact, there is going to be a series of weak storms which will make the air feel damp as well.
Yet, the long range forecast suggests that the weather pattern has indeed made a choice, a choice to retrograde westward. As the winter trough pulls back, this has the potential to eventually bring much warmer air into our area, especially towards the end of next week.
Let's see: it is the 15th of February. Looking 10 days out doesn't indicate any real winter on the horizon. On the other hand, last year's snow came on a Friday on March 1st.
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
The weather feels quite winter like, although the temperature is about 10 C. The reason it feels chilly is that there is a strong wind. In fact, there is going to be a series of weak storms which will make the air feel damp as well.
Yet, the long range forecast suggests that the weather pattern has indeed made a choice, a choice to retrograde westward. As the winter trough pulls back, this has the potential to eventually bring much warmer air into our area, especially towards the end of next week.
Let's see: it is the 15th of February. Looking 10 days out doesn't indicate any real winter on the horizon. On the other hand, last year's snow came on a Friday on March 1st.
Shabbat Shalom,
Barry Lynn
Tuesday, February 12, 2013
Weather It Is (A Choice)
Good Evening:
In the next few days the temperatures are going to rise by more than 10 degrees Celsius, ahead of our next wintertime system.
Our next bout of winter should bring a decent rain on Shabbat or very early next week. Afterwards, the weather will have to make a choice, up or down. If the temperatures continue to cool, then the next storm system will be followed by an even colder system that could bring the white stuff back into the neighborhoods of the central mountains and northern mountains.
There is about a 50% chance that the second storm system will affect us. Hopefully, the situation will become more obvious as we move along a few days in the week.
Barry Lynn
Here is the GEFS precipitation forecast from our web site. You can see how some of the ensemble members continue to produce more rain as time goes on. This corresponds to the continued drop off in 500 mb temperatures, immediately below the precipitation graph.
In the next few days the temperatures are going to rise by more than 10 degrees Celsius, ahead of our next wintertime system.
Our next bout of winter should bring a decent rain on Shabbat or very early next week. Afterwards, the weather will have to make a choice, up or down. If the temperatures continue to cool, then the next storm system will be followed by an even colder system that could bring the white stuff back into the neighborhoods of the central mountains and northern mountains.
There is about a 50% chance that the second storm system will affect us. Hopefully, the situation will become more obvious as we move along a few days in the week.
Barry Lynn
Here is the GEFS precipitation forecast from our web site. You can see how some of the ensemble members continue to produce more rain as time goes on. This corresponds to the continued drop off in 500 mb temperatures, immediately below the precipitation graph.
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