Weather It Is (A Rollercoaster)

Good Morning:

The weather is certainly nice, and it is even nicer to head out without a fear of clear-air-missiles suddenly raining down.  In fact, if one takes a look at the 850 mb temperatures under "GEFS-Forecasts") one will see that there is great consensus that the weather will be quite simply superb -- and even warm by several degrees.

However, every climb usually comes to an end -- eventually, and these same temperatures show a rollercoaster plunge after several days to more winter like temperatures.  Accordingly, the precipitation forecasts show a big rain event on the way.

As I mentioned, there is a consensus among forecasts that it will warm up quite a bit, and then turn colder with rain.  There are a few outliers in the forecast -- just like there have been a few Palestinian terrorist attacks, despite the ceasefire.  In fact, one of them, if not for a severe defence put up by the would be victim, might have ended up like another Itamer.

We've got amazing weather here -- it is hardly ever dangerous (unlike in other locations).  Wouldn't it be wonderful if the neighbours were equally as tame?

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Wintertime)

Good Evening:

The nip we spoke about sometime back has turned into a nap, or a prolonged period of weather that requires a coat of some sort.  Weak low pressure continues its eastward track through our area and the rain showers associated with it will also move away.  Then, the weather will slowly transition from sunny and cool to rainy and cold.  It isn't going to happen very quickly, but it should happen nevertheless.

It's actually been quite winter-like in other parts of Europe for the last few weeks.  Strangely, even though winter has  been occurring over there, we were still getting small systems bringing us cool temperatures and rain (instead of warm and dry). It's almost as if we've been a weather island apart from the main going ons elsewhere.  Well, this should change, although the weather should warm a bit just ahead of the on-rushing storm.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Storms on the Way)

Good Morning:

Our forecasts are indicating rain, lightning, and thunder will be moving into our area today.  There will periods of rain, some of them heavy, with the potential for flooding in low-lying areas.

The rain is courtesy of several low pressure areas that will move in from the west along with upper level instability.  The rain is actually forecast to continue for several days, although not every area will see rain at the same time.

So, our winter is off to a rainy wet start; nothing makes us happier than a good rain to fill the streams, rivers, and lakes.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Rain, and Then More Rain)

Good Evening:

The very pleasant weather (which is quite conducive to an air attack) is coming to an end. Does this mean that the ceasefire we read about is just around the corner (like next winter's snow) will happen simply by default?

I don't have an answer to this question, but I would like to mention that the weather will become rather wet starting Thursday night.  This storm is a bit strange, as it will first impact the area around Gaza southward, and then pivot (like a pirouetting missile) north (to Tel-Aviv) and eastward.  This is consistent with the growth of the Hamas missile menace, which was easier to predict (way back when) than next weeks weather.   I suppose so that just as we like to convince ourselves that indeed the next storm will bring a long awaited snow,  there were those who were convinced that the missile storm would never materialise.

The good news is that the rain should continue into next week and also spread into northern parts of the country as well.  This we can predict with greater certainty than when the war will end (but, hopefully, with the surrender of Hamas & Company before it does).  One last comment: it's always better to build homes than missile silos, and invest in businesses than missiles, and study to be doctors than ordinance engineers.  With the rain, perhaps we can drop some leaflets with these suggestions.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Spitting Image)

Good Afternoon

The weather seems to be moving towards wintertime, but it is doing it gradually. Over the next week, cooler air will continue to filter in at higher levels of the atmosphere, touching off showers from time to time.

Some of these showers will be steadier and heavier, like the rain in Eilat yesterday (and near Arad).  Because the cooler air is aloft, it makes for the potential for convective rain, meaning the tall cloud-towers that stand pretty-much straight up (from a distance).

Heavy rain can lead to flooding, and this can be dangerous.  In areas where there is little vegetation, rain amounts can be as little as 5 mm and it can still flood (like in the Arava).

Size doesn't always matter.  For instance, while the Gazan's launch missile after missile (of the motor variety), one young man decided to launch his own missile at a passing car near Tekoa Motzei Shabbat.  The rock smashed the car and the driver (Shimon Ben-Hamu (23)) was killed.  Murder is murder, whether with a rock or a missile -- the intent is the same.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Cats and Dogs)

Good Afternoon:

The weather is really delightful.  Unfortunately, the skies are raining missiles.   I'm not sure where the phrase: "Raining Cats and Dogs" came from as opposed to "The Dog Days of Summer," or "Let Sleeping Dogs Lie."

In any case, our Hamas neighbours have really taken offence that we've taken the offence against their incessant missile attacks.  Of course, if we simply shoot back for a while, without going the final step to remove Hamas from power and arrest its cohorts then I can predict -- like I can predict that tomorrow will be another sunny day -- that the rocket attacks will start again (and so will our weak response).

So, where does that leave us:  a few days from some light rain, and then some heavier rain towards the middle of next week.

Well, if our "Operation Pillar" doesn't turn into "Operation Heavy Rain," then this will all have been an exercise for next time.

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (Is it Raining?)

Good Morning:

To those living on the left or western side of the country (and even the deep South (Eilat)) it has been raining.  In fact, there have been flooding rains and the streets of Eilat were under a foot or two of water.

Yet, on the right or eastern side of the country the rain has been more sparse.  Storms that move in promisingly from the west dissipate as they reach Jerusalem.  Our forecasts have and continue to show that these rain storms should persist into the mountains of Jerusalem.

I can only think that there is a  conflict of interest here. On the one hand, we have winter -- as represented by an early season storm -- and on the other hand we have fall (or summer) -- represented by the wind patterns of the desert.  They're duelling and on our side of the country the summer drying winds are winning out.

The only thing we can really forecast with certainty is that our winter rain storm will be mixed with missiles at times. Fortunately, shelters will be built.  Unfortunately, we'll need to forecast missiles in the summer-time even when the weather is in general good (that's because missile attacks are not really acts of weather as our government ministers belief, but acts of man -- and are actually subject to other acts of man to stop them (if only we had the will-power)).

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (A Real Rain!)

Good Afternoon:

A real winter storm is on its way.  What we would term a "Cyprus-Low" is forecast to form in the next few days bringing a two or three day period of rain to our area.  It may not be October, but we're still pretty early in November and it is very nice to see the weather map predict our first rain (and a lot of rain at that!).

Of course, several weeks ago the weather map also showed a period of rain, but the forecast evaporated with the rain (that never came).

The rainy weather should be followed by cooler weather and then a more tropical system may impact our weather towards mid-next week.

By that time, we'll probably know who will be the President of the USA.  Based on the forecasts (and even forecast ensembles) Mr. Obama should win again -- and become President Obama once again. Like we hope for a good rainy season each year, we can only hope that the President Obama we've seen more recently is the real Obama, and that he won't return to the previous incarnation (the one that made our Prime Minister take out the trash before he could come in for a visit).  How rude!

Barry Lynn

Weather It Is (The State of the Weather)

Good morning:

For quite some time, the real action has been elsewhere.  In fact, other than the Khassam Missile or two, there hasn't  been any real weather to speak of.  Fortunately, our government will be spending a rather hefty sum of money to build Khassam Missile shelters to protect against these unplanned and unforecast events.

The good news is that we might have some other types of weather soon, including the wet kind.  The weather pattern is finally becoming a bit more active, and it just may be active enough to bring our first real rain.  Looking further ahead, a much stronger storm might approach us a week hence.  However, I tend to put less stock in these long range forecasts than I do in a forecast for:  partly cloud with a 10% chance of large missiles.

Barry Lynn