Monday, August 15, 2016

Weather It Is (Some Like It Hot)

Good Morning:

For those who like it hot, well..., this is not the week for hot weather.

As you can see, it has been unusually chilly across Europe.

http://notrickszone.com/2016/08/12/surface-frost-strikes-germany-mid-august-temperatures-shatter-old-records/#sthash.9y4PhlKf.iHReujGO.dpbs

In fact, it has been colder than late December.

Here, the temperatures in the mountains should be in the mid-20s, while in the coastal plains the upper 20s.  Nighttime temperatures should fall into the low 20s in the coastal plain and the mid-teens in the mountains.  So, it will feel like fall rather than summer.

However,  Shabbat should begin a warm-up, but again temperatures will only return to about seasonable, if not below seasonable temperatures as next week progresses.  If we look to the end of the month, we see possibly much hotter weather, but not (yet) any extreme heat.

You can see relatively cool lower tropospheric temperatures over Europe at this link:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850&region=eu&t=9p

We're on the receiving end of some of this weather.

Note, also, the movement of the hot area of lower pressure over the deserts to our east a bit westward late this week and early next. It then retreats a bit as a high pressure ridge develops to our west and funnels somewhat cooler weather southward towards the end of next week.

Barry Lynn


Tuesday, August 9, 2016

Weather It Is (Does It Feel A Bit Chilly?)

Good Evening:

Does it feel a bit cool?  Last night I heard someone exclaim: "It's winter out there!"

Of course, everyone knows it's not winter, and that August has been (in recent memory) full of hot days.

Yet, can you really argue when someone says: "it's winter out there."  After all, people don't go around saying: "it's winter out there," in the middle of August -- just for fun.

So, what's going on?  It's not obvious, but our cool weather may have something to do where we are in the current cycle of sunspots.

https://twitter.com/commoditywx/status/761581379121446912/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

In fact, the "Commodity Group" is suggesting that the upcoming sunspot minimum might be more severe than the previous that occurred from 2008 -- 2010, as we head into a cycle that was known in the past as  the "Dalton Minimum."  This occurred from from 1790 to 1830.

While the year 1816 was known as the year without a summer, it has been suggested that the combination of a volcano eruption and minimum solar sunspot (or solar output) at that time were the combination of events that led to the unusually cold temperatures.

In any case, the warm up we saw in the model forecasts  as a possibility for this mid-week has instead  turned to the cooler forecast solutions, which are suppose to last all week, and then intensify from Sunday onwards.  By intensify, I don't mean to be "hot," but on the unusually cool side of things.

The irony is that the weather maps looks a typical summertime weather map, but temperatures don't reflect this. Moreover, as we head into next week low pressure developing over Turkey and the Black Sea will push even cooler weather our way.  The weather map will then resemble a bit more like fall then summer.

Might there be an upturn at the end of August.  Yes.

Does the minimum in sun spot activity imply a snowy winter? Possibly, as many times in the Jerusalem area and Gush Etzion it rains at just 1 or 2 C.  A little bit of cooling here or there and we could see a bit more snow than usual.

Lastly, the ocean circulation as El-Nino/La-Nina will be turning to the "La-Nina" (cooling) side in the Pacific Ocean, which also help to reduce global temperatures.

Sincerely,

Barry Lynn


Friday, August 5, 2016

Weather It Is (Just Right)

Good Morning:

The weather has turned just right.  It wasn't always this way. In fact, we've had a spate of somewhat hot summer days, but punctuated by high humidity.  This has made what might be a tolerably hot summer day feel uncomfortable, even in the mountainous areas that are typically hot, but usually dry.

It looks like the middle of next week will turn quite hot again as hot air moves westward from the Saudia Arabian desert, but temperatures should cool off in time for Shabbat and Ninth of Av.  This will make the fast go easier for many folks.  The cooler temperatures will arrive on westerly winds as strong low pressure is forecast to develop over the Black Sea and Turkey.

Have you ever noticed that families often have children, and then (when the children grow up a bit), they get a dog or a cat or even two.

It is really a shame that couples don't practice first with a pet or two before they answer the unknowns of child raising, or even that husband or wife "to be" don't practice by themselves, before tying the knot.

For instance,  animals can teach communication: when I hear a "Meow" outside the door, I know to let my cat in (the opposite is true). When I hear the Meow in the kitchen, it means  "special food."   Did I mention that when the dog sort of makes a sighing sound at the door it means: "please open the door?"  A loud bark means: "I am excited!"

Constrast with what happens between husband and wife, when the husband is in the kitchen (he may be just passing through, or looking for a glass of water).  "Meow," goes the wife.  The husband immediately translates: "What are you doing? Why is there a mess? Why are you in the kitchen?"  He doesn't answer because he doesn't know which question to answer.  When the wife says that the trash is full, does this mean that the trash is full or that the husband should take the garbage out?

Think of this from the wife's point of view.  The wife comes home from a hard day at work, or even a hard day at home with the kids and pours her hearth out.  The husband -- not knowing how to solve such a difficult "problem" just whimpers like a dog.  Or, the wife observes the husband all excited (perhaps even barking like a dog), but doesn't know what to say (e.g, "that's great, I appreciate that!") -- when the house is a mess.

There are practical things to learn before marriage and kids, and a good teacher (cat and/or dog), can help out, but perhaps too much.

And that's the real "rub."  One wonders if the reason for cat and dog is the husband seeks simplicity (cat), and the wife seeks someone who will actually listen (and do) -- the dog.

Barry Lynn




Sunday, July 31, 2016

Weather It Is (Too Hot For the Dog)

Good Morning:

Yesterday was simply too hot for the dog.  She lay panting on the floor, barely moving from noon until the evening.

Actually, it was too hot for many of us, and yet, it wasn't your typical hot day.  Instead, it was both warm and humid.  We noted 32 C with 51% humidity and a heat index of 34 Celsius.  Usually, when it's hot in Jerusalem it's also relatively dry in Jerusalem, so the heat (when it comes) is a bit more bearable.

Yesterday, though, was simply uncomfortable, as the winds were strong enough to transport moisture from the Mediterranean all the way into the mountain areas.

Tomorrow temperatures will be rising again as low pressure to our east builds to the west.  The hottest temperatures will probably be in the mountain areas, as off-shore winds (sea-breezes) keep things a bit cooler in the coastal plain.  However, "down-there" the humidity will be quite high, so residents of the coastal plain will not be able to enjoy the somewhat moderate temperatures.

However, the hot weather will be short-lived, as by late Tuesday the temperatures will start to head down as winds strengthen from the west in response to low pressure deepening over the northeastern corner of the Mediterranean.  The cool temperatures will be especially noticeable from Thursday into next Sunday.

This will make our dog happy. Moreover, she's scheduled for a haircut at the Holyland Poodle Professional Grooming Salon. The combination of being nicely coiffed with cooler temperatures would any person -- and certainly any dog -- feel better.

Shavua Tov,

Barry Lynn

Friday, July 22, 2016

Weather It Is (Great Weather!)

Good Afternoon:

This is certainly great weather!

Low pressure situation to our north is funnelling relatively cool winds into our region. It's 28 Celsius with 44% humidity and northwesterly winds at 19 km/h.  Absolutely gorgeous weather.

The low pressure will weaken late Sunday, which will allow the desert low to our east to nudge back to the west, which will bring hotter weather (but not too hot) for Monday into Friday. Shabbat may turn a bit hotter, but no real heat is indicated.

After six years, I've started to play Friday morning softball again. The kids are a bit older and I have a small window to return to my younger days.  The amazing thing is how much the players care to win, even though it is still a game.  It is nice to be able to forget -- at least for a while -- some of the difficulties we experience while living here. Of course, Simchot also bring a level of happiness one doesn't remember while living in the old country.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Monday, July 18, 2016

Weather It Is (Nice Weather)

Good Afternoon:

The weather is nice and it should remain this way for the next three or four days on relatively cool northwesterly breezes.

Looking further ahead, low pressure situated to our east will begin to push back westward.  Right now, it looks like it will bring several days of hot, but not too hot weather.  In other words, instead of feeling like a warm spring day, the weather will feel more like summer.

Yesterday a disaster was averted.  Not the kind that Mother Nature brings, unless you consider the Palestinians part of the natural world.  Unfortunately, they and their ilk are far too prevalent..  I read in the J. Post that a simple solution (or aid) would be for the government to fix the holes in the fence, as well as complete the fence, preventing both terrorists and 60,000 or so undocumented workers from making their way to Jerusalem and the coastal plain.

I am not sure if such a simple solution would work, but one wonders if our leadership really appreciates or even understands the pain terrorist victims and their families undergo.  You see, while most of us read about a terror attack and feel terrible for the victims, the pain recedes over time (although I must admit to still being troubled at times, even long after).  However,  for the families, the person never comes back and the pain never goes away.  Maybe it dulls a bit -- maybe -- but it never goes away and it can't (this is especially so with children, for obvious reasons).

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Weather It Is (Heat, Wind, and Dust)

Good Afternoon:

Low pressure located to our east will expand westward bringing uncomfortably hot temperatures on Friday.  However, the heat will be short-lived, as a cool front will bring somewhat cooler temperatures for Shabbat.  Temperatures should then fall through Monday, which may bring a slight chill to the air mornings early next week.

We're not going to warm up until the end of next week, and at the moment there is about a 70% chance July will end on neither a hot nor cool note.

In the meantimes, please be aware that the upcoming heat will arrive with enhanced dust levels from the Sinai and Saudia Arabia.

There will also be strong winds, which combined with the heat should bring a heightened fire risk.

I was away, and have been a bit under the weather (with a virus).  These reasons combined with a relative lack of weather has reduced the frequency of the blog output.

I didn't even take note of the murder of the 13 year old girl (Hallel Yaffe Ariel) from Kiryat Arba.  The worst part of this is that there never seems to be a point when we say enough (!), perhaps, because what we might like to do and what we can actually do (given a bit of rational reasoning) are not the same.  But, this just ignores the real problem, which is that Palestinian culture (and Arab/Islamic  culture in general) encourages far too many people to take what we consider amoral actions.  Of course, to them, they are acting in the highest moral plane.  But, then again, the Germans thought so too.

Barry Lynn