Sunday, July 23, 2017

Weather It Is (Heat Again)

Good Morning:

We had some problems transitioning to the upgraded GFS model -- the model that provides initial and boundary conditions to our WRF forecast update.  However, these problems should be behind us, soon.

In the meantime, we're showing a combination of WRF and GFS forecast data, so to minimize forecast interruptions.

Regardless, the weather doesn't wait, and the heat has come back as winds spin counterclockwise slowly around low pressure to our east.

Around mid-week, high pressure will develop over Africa.  The clockwise flow of air around the high should bringwesterly winds, which means cooler sea-breezes (but higher humidity as well).  Late in the week, however, the high will approach from the west, and winds will shift into a more northerly or northeast direction, which means the heat should return.

Speaking of heat, the rhetoric of the Palestinian leadership has now made a bad situation worse, inflaming the latent hatred of Jews Palestinians are taught by their religious leaders, school teachers, and media.

When a tragedy, God forbid, strikes here, a investigative committee is set up, and at least some lessons are learned to prevent future tragedy.  In contrast, when the Palestinians engage in murder, and the Israel government responds with a reasonable security precaution, the Palestinian leadership blames the victim, us, and calls for more acts of violence -- i.e., murder.

It really makes no sense, because almost always the Palestinians suffer many more deaths (and property damage) than we do.  Yet, their hatred is so deep that they never give up.  They hope that this will be the time that they can finally rid the holy land of the Jews -- forgetting that to us our land is both holy and necessary for the survival of the Jewish people.  We're not going to run away, and we will fight back.

I hope that this round of mayhem will end soon.

Barry Lynn

Monday, July 17, 2017

Weather It Is (The Heat!)

Good Evening:

The heat is pretty much unbearable.  It's not just the days, but the nights too.

The good news is that temperatures will trend slowly downwards as winds gradually trend to the west.  This is the result of lower pressure building over the Mediterranean and the heat low to our east shifting away.  The change in the temperatures will be much appreciated.

Apparently, there are many "Muslims" who are heated up over changes to access protocols for the Mosque on top of the old Jewish Temple.  It has been decided that those that want to enter will need to pass through a metal detector. This was done to help prevent a repeat of what happened Friday, when two policeman were murdered guarding the site.

Amazingly, this is something new! Anyone who has ever wanted to visit the Western Wall knows that one passes through a metal detector (and a security check) to enter.

The Wafq is protesting these new security measures, and encouraging visitors to stay away until they are rescinded.  I assume they are objecting because they want their constituents to be able to store weapons, riot and throw rocks at prayer goers below, and murder when ever the mood suits them.

If I had my way, I would keep the site closed until the end of the month.  It's a privilege to pray there, and it should be rescinded.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, July 13, 2017

Weather It Is (The Break Ends)

Good Afternoon:

The "break" in our hot weather will come to an end, and temperatures should trend upwards through Sunday.

However, a storm moving across southern Europe will push back against the heat and start a downward trend in the temperatures on Monday.  Tuesday (and perhaps Wednesday).

Enjoy the break -- it will be a short one.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn
P.S. Remember, it's very dry because of the heat and lack of winter rains -- so don't leave any fires unattended.

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Weather It Is (It's Not Typical)

Good Evening:

How strange!

Who can remember such hot weather with a layer of tropical clouds?

It turns out that clockwise flow around high pressure situation to our east is both pushing high heat and moisture into our area from the south (and Red Sea).  Normally, low pressure over the desert to our east brings hot and dry air in from the east.  So, we have, instead, both heat and moisture together.

Despite the moisture, no rain or lightning is noted in our area and surroundings.

Still, it feels like a storm has brewed.  There is a pretty tight pressure gradient, which is causing fairly strong winds.

Last month was above normal temperature wise, and this month is turning out to be a scorcher. As my wife noted, we haven't had an occasional wave of heat, we've had a "high tide."  It's like a wall of heat has risen and overwhelmed us, and the heat storm shows no signs of abating.  In fact, after a short break on Thursday, the heat should return for the end of the week, Shabbat, and least into at least early next week.

Keep in mind that the strong winds and high heat means that there is a high fire risk.

It's not nice, it's not pleasant, and it's not typical.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, July 9, 2017

Weather It Is (Hot Again)

Good Evening:

A quick glance at the wind pattern at 850 mb (about 1500 m above the ground level) shows that we'll be the battleground between very hot air to our east and cooler Mediterranean sea-breezes.  Unfortunately, the battle will turn towards the uncomfortable side --> hot.

It looks like temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 30s by Wednesday, with the hottest temperatures over the mountain areas again.  Temperatures along the coast should be in the low 30s, but with high humidity (so the Heat Index will be high).

Thursday looks like there will be a change of wind direction on Thursday, and this should cool things off as we head into Shabbat.

There is a note in The Times of Israel that Hizbollah is building underground missile factories in Lebanon.  The reality of the situation is all too real.  Here we have a group that has 150,000 missiles, and they apparently need more.  You might remember that one of our previous foreign ministers agreed to the situation that made this possible.  She put her trust in the UN and other countries to enforce the agreement (that was -- on paper (only) -- suppose to preclude such a situation).  In my opinion, it is necessary to use some very large munitions to destroy these factories.  Hopefully, Hizbollah and Iran will get the message.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, July 6, 2017

Weather It Is (All Good Things)

Good Afternoon:

There is a saying that "all good things must com to an end. " Certainly, if one is following the weather forecast and looking ahead to next week one would be in agreement.  While this morning's weather was quite pleasant -- even cool enough for my daughter to ask: "is it cold outside?" -- we're certainly not headed in that direction.

True, there is a chance of cooling sprinkles Friday morning, but the winds will switch from a westerly to a more southerly direction as the days pass into next week, and with the change in wind direction will come the high heat.  Temperatures should rise into the mid 30s (if not higher) in the mountains and desert areas, while it will be closer to 30 C with high humidity (Heat Index) along the coast.

It is interesting that the heat should arrive with northerly winds in the mountainous areas, but take on a more southerly direction to the west of the mountains.  The reason for this is most likely the temperature contrast between sea and the mountainous areas that creates local pressure differences.

I suppose that one reason I became a meteorologist (or atmospheric scientist interested in weather forecasting) is that I could always add a silver lining to the end of the forecast.  True, the pleasant weather of today will be replaced by rather unpleasant heat, but that too will give way to more pleasant breezes when the heat wave as run its course.

Unfortunately, there was an accidental shooting of a young man/soldier from Efrat.  Efrat is large enough now that I am not familiar with the family that suffered such a terrible tragedy.  On the other hand, in Israel all types of tragedies feel personal.  It is the nature of the Jewish people that we feel connected to other Jewish people elsewhere, but especially in our country -- where one can drive from river to coast in a relatively short time.

Yet, I couldn't help but notice this morning how there were those who took an (illegal) opportunity to pass my car on the right hand side. Israelis are notorious for their lack of etiquette on the road, as well as paying scant attention to cross walks, stop signs, etc.  Rules of the road are only guide, not an obligation. So, why be angry at our Palestinian neighbors, but not be angry at ourselves for bringing about the same result (death) on the roads?

Barry Lynn

Monday, July 3, 2017

Weather It Is (A Hot Day)

Good Afternoon:

There's a hot, dry wind a blowing, and it is blowing right here.  Temperatures are in the upper 30s in most locations across the country, except along the immediate coast.  However, along the coast line humidities are quite high, so the Heat Index is still in the mid 30s.  The winds are generally actually from the north, but they are originating from the deserts to our east. Only the coastal areas have a westerly (from the sea) component to the winds (and hence the higher humidity).

So, no matter where you are it isn't pleasant to be outdoors.

Fortunately, a cool front will arrive this evening and temperatures should trend downwards to more normal levels by the end of the week (when they may trend back up!).  High pressure will first dip to our south bringing "cooler" westerly winds, and a trough of low pressure will approach mid-week as well -- keeping the winds in a more westerly direction.

There is still a lot of hot air coming from our politicians.  One "religious" man was heard to say that the "Diaspora" Jews should stay our of our business.  I guess he has forgotten that the country was built by both who built it with their hands (and blood) and those that provided the financial resources to make it possible (and in many ways, still do).  Yesterday, our Prime Minister stopped a bill that would have made it more difficult to give away part of Jerusalem in a possible future (actually -- it is really impossible) peace agreement with our Palestinian neighbors.  Suddenly, the man was more like a Tuna-Fish rather than a Jelly Fish. I wonder from where he grew a spine?

Hoping for cooler weather and a true leader to step forward.

Barry Lynn