Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Weather It Is (Severe Winter Storm)

Good Evening:

The rain has been a little slow in arriving, but the atmosphere will turn favorable for a soaking rain from the north to the central areas starting tomorrow and lasting into Saturday.  Moreover, the storm will bring gale force winds from late morning Thursday into late Friday.

As the storm arrives, there is a 60% chance of > 10 mm in 3 hour of rain in the Tel-Aviv area.

With the winds and rain will come cold temperatures as the storm moves in from the northwest. Our 4 km WRF 36 to 72 hour forecast shows snow on the Hermon as well.  The same maps are indicating the potential for flooding rains from Haifa Northward, and in the area of Askhelon eastward to the Dead Sea Valley.

The cold will last into Sunday, and then temperatures will moderate for a few days.

The long range forecast shows a 10% chance of snow on or about the anniversary of the giant snow of December 2013.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, November 27, 2016

Weather It Is (Severe Winter Storm)

Good Evening:

A severe winter storm will arrive Wednesday and last into Friday, and possibly Saturday.

The storm will bring typical winter cold, but in late November into early December.

But, first, I want to take note of the extremely unusual conditions we had the last few days.  Winds blew persistently from the northeast, funneling in early winter cold from the far reaches of Siberia.  The result was not only a strong chill, but extremely dry humidity, which combined with the brisk winds made it very difficult to control the (huge number) of wildfires.

The winds will shift around more to the south until Tuesday, which will bring plenty of dust and somewhat milder temperatures.  However, Tuesday night will mark a change to much colder weather with heavy snow likely on the Hermon and heavy rain elsewhere.

Moreover, the storm will bring gale force winds with higher gusts from Wednesday night into Friday, and possibly lasting into Shabbat.

With the wind and rain, will also come lightning and hail (or ice pellets) in many locations.

Because the trees are still full of leaves, they will be more sensitive to the strong winds, so damage due to falling branches (or even trees) is also possible.

Looking beyond this weeks's storm sees continued instability/possibility in the (now) winter circulation pattern that is setting up over our area.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, November 24, 2016

Weather It Is (Winds Subside, Then Winter Storm Arrives)

Good Evening:

The winds will slowly subside over the next few days, which will make it easier to fight the wildfires.

However, sometime on Tuesday the winds will pick up again ahead of our next storm.

The next storm system promises to bring the "first-rain" to Israel, most likely ending the drought
that has plagued our land all fall. In fact, snow is most likely on the Hermon and mixed rain and ice/graupel in the higher elevations of the north and central mountains. In the lower areas, strong storms could bring lightning and hail, which may spread inland.

Moreover, the winds will be extremely strong with this storm, so it will definitely feel like winter has arrived.

The storm is suppose to develop in association with a cold outbreak from the north, as high pressure builds over western Europe.  The amount of cold and the intensity of the rain will depend on just how strong that high develops and remains anchored to our west.  If it breaks down too fast, then the cold will be less and the rain less.  Right now, we're looking for something in between -- a good soaking rain, but not as extreme as might happen if all "fell into place."

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Weather It Is (Strong Winds, Then Much Colder)

Good Evening:

The strong winds that have whipped forest fires into conflagerations should continue into Friday morning.  At the same time, much colder air will arrive tonight and pretty much stay with us until the end of the month.

As the month ends, or December begins, we see a 70% chance that our first major storm of the year should approach and overspread the area with very high winds and heavy rain.  Some of the global ensemble forecasts show temperatures falling into the lower single digits, if not lower in the higher elevations.

While the outcome of the approaching storm is still uncertain, there is still a high probability of at least light to moderate rain arriving non the less.

Still, there is a small chance the first week of December will turn warm and dry, which will only exacerbate the drought and the potential for major fires.

Barry Lynn

Friday, November 18, 2016

Weather It Is (Goings On)

Good Friday Afternoon:

"So," I say, "no problem -- I can do it."  Sure, I can be a mother for an afternoon.

This all happened because the true mother of the family had to make an unexpected trip to Jerusalem.  Here were the instructions: "Pick up the oldest daughter and take her to the dentist at 3:50, but pick up the 'Banot' at 3:40."  Truly -- no problem.

What I didn't know is that I had to pick up the oldest daughter in Allon Shavut, and anyone who lives anywhere here knows that it has become nearly impossible to drive between towns in Gush Etzion because of traffic (both Israeli and Palestinian).  In fact, I heard of folks who left there homes at 0800 (morning) , and returned home at 1700 (evening), without ever arriving in Jerusalem for work.

Anyway, after fitting in a hair cut (a husband thing), I picked up the youngest daughters, dropped the oldest off, said hello to the oldest son, picked up the oldest, dropped the oldest son at his English lesson, returned with the youngest, and at approximately 19:06 RESIGNED (in a very loud and affirmative voice (actually a letter)) my tenure as Mother of the house.

Be serious, nobody can do this (my wife says she does it every day).

The big question on many folks minds is: was this Friday's Efrat (Mens) softball game the last of the year?  Today was a beautifully sunny day with mild temperatures.  The next four days should turn even milder, but Tuesday should see the approach of a storm system from the northwest.

The global forecast model shows a high probably of a light to moderate rain meaning (that most likely) my last at bat this year will be the last possible until next spring.

Moreover, there is a 30% chance of a heavy rain about the middle of the week after (almost 10 to 14 days from now).  So, hopefully, the end of the month will bring the end of our drought.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Monday, November 14, 2016

Weather It Is (An End Has Arrived)

Good Afternoon:

This Monday evening marks the arrival of the "supermoon," but the end of our unusually warm weather (some might call it hot).

Temperatures will fall this evening through Thursday, before bottoming out on Friday.  With the cooler air will arrive the chance of showers on Wednesday.

On Shabbat, milder temperatures should return, and the milder temperatures should last into mid-next week.

However, the long range forecast is indicating that temperatures at 700 and 500 mb should trend downwards mid-next-week until late next week, and these colder temperatures in the middle and upper atmosphere will likely herald a change to rainy weather --  if not then, then soon thereafter.

At the moment, there is a 15% chance of a significant rain that will end our early season drought.

Barry Lynn

Friday, November 11, 2016

Weather It Is (Oh That Weather)

Good Afternoon:

Wow, it's nice out there.  It's 23 C (at about 13:30), 50% humidity and a light northwesterly wind at 11 km/h.  It really doesn't get better than this.

The conversation today at Friday morning's softball was not about the weather.  This was both unusual and actually quite hard on me, as I am used to talking about something that really means pretty much nothing to most people.

Instead, we spoke, and spoke, about the election.  The good news (as noted) is that all the reasons we might have had not to vote for Trump (or Clinton) are no longer relevant, as Mr. Trump is President-Elect, and unless there is a really big skeleton in his closet he will be for the next four years.

Of course, our politicians can't keep quiet until he actually takes office, as they are saying everything they can to irritate the current President (not very smart).

Well, I'd like to talk about the weather, and I can tell you that it's going to feel more like summer until late Sunday evening and less like winter.  However. Monday through Wednesday should see much cooler weather, which mean that people might actually notice that there is weather in Israel.

There will then be a vote to decide if late summer weather returns late next week or fall/winter deepens (with a bit of rain). In any case, the polls indicate that winter should arrive about 10 days from now as forecasts show that colder, and possibly rainy weather will finally arrive.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn