Saturday, October 22, 2016

Weather It Is (Please Decide)

Good Evening:

"Did you know that I asked my husband if he'd cleaned out the grill from our Succoth barbecue.  He said 'yes.'  Well, he didn't quite.  I've asked him three times if the bag of charcoal next to the front gate is garbage. 'No, it isn't,' he assures me."

"I am trying to figure out when he'll understand that if it isn't garbage it shouldn't be there..."

"Wait a moment!"  "This is my blog!"  "If you want to write a blog, please go ahead and feel free to call it 'Wives It Is."

Now that I have wrested my blog back from the clutches of the Wife, I can tell you that Weather It Is has made (actually, possibly made) a major scientific breakthrough.  We've determined that there is an inverse correlation between our months of nice weather and the lack of missile fire from Gaza. For instance, since June there have been very, very few missiles and no extreme temperature days.  There have been no dust storms. Moreover, we are about to complete our first Succoth in many years without any wind damage to its structure, nor was the weather particularly humid or hot.

Weather It Is scientists are and will be hard at work developing the physical basis for this startling and perhaps earth-shaking discovery.

Getting back to the basics, were looking at a continued likelihood of no change in the weather during next two weeks.  However, there is a 25% chance of rain at the end of the week, but there is also a 25% chance that it will warm up a bit.

Given a choice before up and down (or possibly more missiles), we'll go with more of the same -- nothing to write about.

Hag Samaech,

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Weather It Is (Cool Temperatures)

Good Morning:

There are clouds this morning, and bit of chill in the air.

Our highest resolution forecast shows a chance of sprinkles along the coast.

We're definitely experiencing the coolest weather of our fall season.

Northwesterly winds should continue into Sunday.  With them, the chill will continue.

A change in the winds should start a warming trend on Simchat Torah or the day after, which should continue until the end of next week.  In fact, the warmer temperatures should last until the end of the month.  Still, it will just be pleasantly warm.

During this time, there is a small chance of showers, without a chance of significant rain until the end of the month.

Modim L'Simcha,

Barry Lynn

Saturday, October 15, 2016

Weather It Is (Cool Weather On The Way)

Good Evening:

The weather will remain mild through Sukkoth Eve (Sunday evening), and then a cool front will move through bringing a noticeable chill to the air that will last through this coming week.

In fact, the nighttime lows will probably be the coolest of the year.

However, the beginning of the following week (Erev Simchat Torah) will see the start of a warming trend that will last into mid-the-following week.

The end of this week will also feature more low level moisture, so with the cool temperatures will come some clouds and some light showers.  However, it looks like the mid-level moisture (at 700 mb) will stay to our north and so will any more significant rain.

Hag Samaech,

Barry Lynn

Monday, October 10, 2016

Weather It Is (For Yom Kippur)

Good Afternoon:

The weather is quite pleasant, as we remain under the influence of high pressure centered over Africa.

Temperatures will warm up a few degrees in time for Yom Kippur, but temperatures will be far lower than they were on the first day of Rosh HaShanah.

However, a cool front will approach late in the week and temperatures are forecast to cool off substantially in time for the beginning of Sukkoth.  Prior to Sukkoth, there will be a chance of showers, but it looks like temperature on the first few days of Sukkoth will be warm.

The global ensemble forecast suggests that middle-level temperatures (at 700 mb) will become unstable during Sukkoth, which will bring in the chance for tropical showers.

All in all, though, it looks to be a fine Chag (Holiday) weather wise.

Gamar Chatima Tova,

Barry Lynn

Thursday, October 6, 2016

Weather It Is (Moving Towards Fall)

Good Afternoon:

The weather is now quite pleasant.  I must say, though, that the first day of Rosh HaShana was too hot even for your weatherman.  I am speaking about someone who never hesitates to stick his nose outside (or even a finger), and will even step outside in the worst blizzard.  However, the combination  of low 30 temperatures and no wind really made the heat feel excessive.

Hence, it is strange that the cooling breezes of the last few days have been replaced by a lot of hot air from Washington over the "approval" of new homes in the town of Shiloh.  While the excuses offered up by the Foreign Ministry were pretty lame, the temperature was turned up way to high.  Did you know that building 90 homes in Shiloh is a great threat to the security of the State of Israel (says the US), but an agreement to perhaps delay but not prevent an Iranian bomb is not?

Before I go on, I need to mention that there is a 50+% chance of rain on Yom Kippur.  A fairly strong mid and upper level trough will approach and bring our first chance of measurable rain.  However, there is a 70% chance that Sukkot will turn hot again.

Yet, there was no hot air expended when the Arab members of the Israeli Kenesset stayed away from Mr. Peres funeral!  Something is wrong when an obvious venue for fostering coexistence among peoples is ignored, and it says (if you didn't already know) where their heads are.

Their lack of Israeli-Arab attendance really makes us feel that the Jewish people are a people that dwells alone, so said Bilam to King Balak.

But, even though we dwell alone, it seems wherever we go (even here), the leaders of the world must stick their noses disproportionately into our business.  True, we were touched by the attendance of many at Mr. Peres funeral, but where is the concern for war-torn areas of the world, if not the one most obviously nearby? Where is the outrage for anyone but us?

If it doesn't concern the Jews, it just isn't interesting.  How strange.

Barry Lynn

Sunday, October 2, 2016

Weather It Is (Peres and Us)

צהריים טובים:
אוויר חם המסתובב מסביב מעל אפריקה בלחץ גבוה יביא חום או ליתר דיוק, טמפרטורות חמות ליום הראשון של ראש השנה.

תחזית האבק שלנו מראה המון אבק שנפוץ סביב אזור הלחץ הגבוה שלנו, כך השילוב של חום ולחות יגרמו לקושי בנשימה וסיכון שריפות גבוה יותר .
לחץ נמוך מעל מרכז אירופה ידחוף דרך אזורנו רוח קדמית קרה בערב חמישי וטמפרטורות התקררו בתחילת שבוע הבא.

יש סיכוי קטן לגשם בתחילת סוכות.

ישנם רבים עם דעות מוצקות מאוד על הנשיא פרס. "הנה אדם שאומרים שעשה דברים גדולים, אך גם נתן רובים בשביל "הערבים", וכולנו יודעים איך זה לא הסתדר. לפיכך, הוא ראוי לכל גינוי נצח". עם זאת, התורה מרמזת אחרת.

בפרשה האחרונה בתורה- פרשת ניצבים, נאמר לנו שהעם היהודי עמדו לפני ה', "בעד המעבר אל תוך הברית".
רש''י אומר שזה לא צריך להתפרש כמעבר , אבל עבור "הביצועים של אותם [מצוות]." יתר על כן – ביצועים אלה הם כמו "קיר משני הצדדים, והם עוברים ביניהם " במילים אחרות הברכה שלנו לחיות בארץ הזאת היא זכות מהמצוות ועשייה , אבל זה לא בהכרח קל ויהיו קשיים.

שמעון פרס פעל ללא לאות לקראת בניית מדינת ישראל ופעל להגנתה באמצעות פעולות נמרצות כמתואר בעיתונות. הוא התברך לחיות בארץ ישראל, ולמרות מאמציו וקשייו שהיו לו לאורך הדרך. כל אלה  תרמו בצורה גדולה על ניהול משגשג ובטוח של חיינו. איזו מצווה גדולה היא לאפשר לאחרים לחיות בארץ ישראל?

נכון שהסכם אוסלו לא יצא לפועל כפי שפרס קיווה, אך הוא הרגיש אחריות עיקשת לרעיון של דעותיו .
זהו טבעו של מנהיג להוביל, וזה טבעיות אופי המנהיגות לפעמים לעשות טעויות.

במהלך הקריירה שלו לשירות העם היהודי, מר פרס ראוי בתודותינו על מה שהלך בסדר , וההבנה / הסליחה שלנו עבור מה שהשתבש .

ולכן כשאנו עומדים לפני הקב"ה בראש השנה, אנחנו צריכים להיות סלחניים כרצוננו שאלוהים יהיה סלחני אלינו.

שנה טובה תיכתב
 ברי לין
תרגום:יקרת לין

Good Afternoon:

Hot air circulating around high pressure over Africa will bring rather warm, if not hot temperatures for the first day of Rosh Hashanah.

Our dust forecast shows plenty of dust circulating around this high pressure area, so the combination of heat and humidity will make for more difficult breathing and an enhanced fire risk.

Low pressure over central Europe will push a cool front through our area Tuesday night and temperatures will then cool off into early next week.

There is a small chance of showers at the start of Sukkoth.

There are many with very strong opinions about President Peres.  Here is a man they say who did great things, but also gave "the Arabs" guns and we all know how well that didn't work out.  Hence, he should forever be condemned. Yet, the Torah suggests otherwise.

In the recent Torah portion Nitzovim, we are told that the Jewish people stood before God, "for your passage into the covenant."  Rashi says that this should not be interpreted as passing, but for the "performance of them [Mitzvos]."  Moreover, such performance is like a "wall on either side, and they would pass between them."  In other words, our blessing to live in this land is to both perform and benefit from the Mitzvos, but it is not easy, nor necessarily without difficulty.

Shimon Peres worked tirelessly towards building the State of Israel and providing for its defense through myriad actions described in the press. He was blessed to live in the land of Israel, and his efforts and the difficulties he had along the way contributed in a large way to making our own lives prosperous and secure.  What larger Mitzvah is there then to enable others to live in the land of Israel?

True, Oslo didn't work out the way he (and many) hoped.  However, to hold him responsible for an idea turned wrong is to hold him to a higher standard than we hold ourselves.

It is the nature of leadership to lead, and it is the nature of leadership to make mistakes.

Over his career of serving the Jewish people, Mr. Peres deserves our thanks for what went right, and our understanding/forgiveness for what went wrong.

As we stand before God this Rosh HaShanah, we should be as forgiving of him as we wish God to be as forgiving of us.

La Shana Tova Tikvatevu.

Barry Lynn

Thursday, September 29, 2016

Weather It Is (The Weather Settles)

Good Evening:

The weather is settling in.  Rain chances for early next week are no-longer. Instead, the days of the New Year (Rosh HaShanah) may end up on the warm -- if not hot side.  We're not speaking about extreme heat, but heat nevertheless.

Nevertheless, the long range forecast shows cooler weather at the end of next week and a chance of showers (25%).

Unfortunately, Yom Kippur looks to be on the warm side again before we cool off with a chance of rain at the start of Sukkoth.

Looking far ahead, the Climate Forecast Systems Model suggests that the next few months will be warmer than normal with normal rainfall.

So, for those hoping for a cold and snowy winter, this upcoming 10 days of Repentance (Teshivah) is a good time to suggest a change.

Shabbat Shalom/Shana Tova,

Barry Lynn