Monday, March 27, 2017

Weather It Is (Spring Cleaning)

Good Evening:

There's a bit of a chill, temperature wise.  However, warmer air will arrive late Tuesday afternoon, and it will be nicely warm by late Thursday evening.

However, a cold front will arrive Thursday night, showers may pop up Friday, and Shabbat will likely be rainy.

The cold air will last into Monday of next week.  It should warm up a bit towards the end of next week, but Pesach's weather looks to be more of the same.  Neither spring or winter, and no real rain either.

Barry Lynn

Saturday, March 25, 2017

Weather It Is (Not Spring -- Don't Forget!)

Good Evening:

True, pre Pesach Chamatz is in the air, but spring has not sprung.

Moreover, while temperatures should warm up to even somewhat warm levels over the next few days, they will plummet to more chilly levels at the end of the month and the beginning of April. The cold weather will probably bring some April showers as well.

It just ain't spring -- yet.

I used to ask my mother how she ever had kids, considering what I'd heard about having one (not the part after, but the part that starts it all off).  She said that mothers must just forget -- otherwise, they'd never do it again.

I was thinking about this when the wife mentioned that she'd already been cleaning for Pesach, and she didn't know how she was going to finish on time.  She's mentioned this a few times, even reviewing with me the difficulty associated with the job (and even more with certain parts of it) -- as if I would appreciate the ins and outs of cleaning for Pesach.

But to be honest, she really has forgotten -- and I bet that most wives forget too.  Husbands do help clean for Pesach, and they probably do it every year -- and the wives forget that they did (every year).

Don't tell her, but tomorrow may just be a day she'll forget come next Pesach.

Shavua Tov,

Barry Lynn

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

Weather It Is (Its Neither Here Nor There)

Good Evening:

It's been chilly these last few days.  It's been cloudy these last few days.  It's been a tad windy.

I've written before about how our weather is generally just plain nice, but the weather we've had in the last several days (if not more) is neither here (Spring) or there (Winter).

True, there may be some springtime rain over the far south and far north during the next few days, but temperatures won't really moderate from this Tuesday to the next.  Moreover, the long range forecast suggests that a trough will build in from the north, possibly bringing a heavier rain to the end of the month, and even unseasonably cool weather.

I say "possibly" because the forecast has oscillated between something just "annoying" (more of the same, but even cooler than the coming seven days) to something more on the winter rainy side, without any clear signal.

Time to go south!

Barry Lynn

Saturday, March 18, 2017

Weather It Is (Some Cold, Some Rain, And...)

Good Evening:

After a warm day, the winds have switched from southeasterly to northwesterly with the passage of a cold front.  The front will bring some light rain.  In fact, there could be showers through the mid-week period, with some tropical (heavier) showers as the week progresses.

During the last week, the GFS ensemble (GEFS) forecast that there would be two periods of heavier rain (Monday, and then again Wednesday).  While rain is in the offing, the forecast system is not nearly as cold as originally forecast -- moreover, it will even turn a bit on the tropical side (and, as noted, there could be some heavier tropical showers).

In fact, temperatures beyond Monday will continue to warm up until about the end of the week, when a cooling trend is indicated.  The end of the month should end on a cool note, and some of the forecasts are predicting quite unseasonably cold weather.  Given the prior track record of the model (of being overly progressive with cold, winter like systems), we need to take this forecast with a bit of spring optimism.

Barry Lynn

Friday, March 17, 2017

Weather It Is (Rapid Changes)

Good Afternoon:

The overcast skies and light rain in the far north are due to over running tropical moisture.  No showers are forecast for other areas besides the far north. Moreover, our lightning network doesn't show any lightning storms in our vicinity.

The tropical air will bring a quick warm up, which will last into Motzei Shabbat (it will also bring some dust).

However, a cold front will bring some showers on Monday, and a storm may bring rain mid-coming-week.

In both cases, there is still a lot of uncertainty about rain amounts or the degree of the cold with the rain.

We're in a transition time, weatherwise, and the storms are neither too defined or too strong. In any case, we're still not past the rainy season just yet.

Shabbat Shalom,

Barry Lynn

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Weather It Is (Winter Hangs On)

Good Afternoon:

It does seem a little hard to get use to: one day its warm, and the next it is on the nippy side. Moreover, there will be some light rain late today along the coast, and some light rain over the central and northern areas tonight into tomorrow morning.

For those who say they've heard this before, but that the merchandise wasn't delivered: perhaps you gave the wrong address?  On Purim day I left Efrat and drove into a driving rain (even before leaving the city's edge).  When I returned, the roads were quite wet (and they were wet in Jerusalem, too, where an umbrellas was carried but not opened) about 1 km beyond the northern entrance.  Yet, they were "bone-dry" before the entrance to the first "main" road Zerubavel.  My wife says she counted the drops at our cottage-home, and gave me a rather annoyed, if not perplexed look.  The looks sort of said: "I should have married a doctor, if not a good carpenter").

Not to be deterred, I will mention that it should warm up a bit on Friday and Shabbat, and there could be some tropical rain.  Of course, for those who have been following the weather, they might remember that until yesterday the forecast suggested that the end of the week looked to bring a cold, if not icy rain -- but that is not the case anymore.  Still, the GFS forecasts a decent rain on Monday of next week (and cold temperatures), while its cousin (the GFS Ensemble) indicates about a 25% chance of a good soaking rain.

Temperatures should warm up, regardless, after the passage of the (rainy) system early next week.

Barry Lynn

Monday, March 13, 2017

Weather It Is (Chilly, And Then Rain)

Good Evening:

The storm we spoke about last week is about to blast the New York City area back to remembrances of the Blizzard of 1888.  If 20 inches accumulates in Central Park, it will break the snow record set back then.

Here, our weather has a definite chill to it, and -- in fact -- the whole week will be on the chilly side.  Moreover, light rain may occur as early as Wednesday, and a heavier precipitation event is likely for Shabbat into Sunday.  Winds may also be quite strong with the upcoming storm as well.

I've been following the weather discussion for NYC and vicinity for a few days now.  This is when I really miss my old home (or rather, the weather I grew up with).  True, we've have fantastic weather on the whole here, but I could really use a late winter storm to get myself in the spring mindset.  This might seem strange, but you have to remember that many plants and animals need winter-type weather to get ready for spring.  In fact, fruit trees won't produce fruit without enough cold weather hours during wintertime.

Anyway, it might warm up briefly before the next onslaught of cold weather at the end of the week, but then again it might not.

The last whole week in March looks to be a bit more seasonable.

Barry Lynn